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比特币在周末经历了一个显着的回调,从多个月的高点撤退,因为各种宏观因素都对风险资产进行了权衡。
Bitcoin pulled back from multi-month highs over the weekend as various macro factors weighed on risk assets. The cryptocurrency, which had tested the $98,000 level late Friday, fell below the $95,000 mark as markets reassessed the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
周末,由于各种宏观因素对风险资产进行了权衡,比特币从多个月的高点中退回。周五晚些时候测试了98,000美元的加密货币,随着市场重新评估美联储降低利率降低的可能性,该加密货币低于95,000美元。
Non-farm payrolls grew by 177,000 in April, the U.S. Labor Department said on Friday, slightly above economists’ expectations of 164,000.
美国劳工部周五表示,非农场工资在4月增加了177,000,略高于经济学家对164,000的期望。
While the report initially sparked a positive response, sentiment quickly soured as bond yields rebounded above the 4.3% threshold, suggesting that borrowing costs might remain elevated for longer.
尽管该报告最初引发了积极的反应,但随着债券收益率反弹以上4.3%的阈值反弹,情绪很快酸化,这表明借贷成本可能会持续更长的时间。
By 01:34 ET (05:34 GMT), Bitcoin dropped 2.7% over the past 24 hours to trade below the $95,000 mark. The cryptocurrency had briefly touched lows of $93,570 before attempting a modest recovery.
到01:34 ET(格林尼治标准时间05:34),过去24小时内比特币下降了2.7%,以低于$ 95,000的交易。在尝试适度的恢复之前,加密货币已经短暂触及了93,570美元的低点。
Its price action also encountered resistance at the $95,250 level, where a bearish trend line is forming on hourly charts.
它的价格动作还以95,250美元的水平遇到了阻力,在小时图表上,看跌趋势线形成。
Bitcoin is now trading below both the $96,000 level and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, technical indicators that traders often keep an eye on.
现在,比特币的交易低于$ 96,000的水平和100小时简单的移动平均水平,交易者经常关注的技术指标。
Market Correlations Strengthen
市场相关性加强
Bitcoin’s price movements have increasingly become aligned with traditional financial markets, reacting to the same macro factors that affect stocks and commodities. This correlation has grown more pronounced as institutional investors have entered the cryptocurrency space, bringing with them traditional market dynamics.
比特币的价格变动越来越与传统金融市场保持一致,对影响股票和商品的相同宏观因素做出了反应。随着机构投资者进入加密货币领域的发展,这种相关性变得更加明显,并带来了传统的市场动态。
The weekend sell-off in Bitcoin mirrored broader declines across risk assets. Oil prices fell sharply after OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing accelerated production increases, adding 411,000 barrels per day to global supply in June.
比特币的周末抛售反映了风险资产的更广泛下降。在欧佩克+惊讶的市场宣布加速产量增长后,石油价格急剧下跌,每天在6月的全球供应中增加了411,000桶。
Most commodities also joined the selloff, but gold bucked the trend. Spot prices rose above $3,250 per ounce early Monday as traders sought havens amid renewed uncertainty.
大多数商品也加入了抛售,但戈尔德却使这一趋势震惊。周一早些时候,由于不确定性,贸易商寻求避风港,周一早些时候,现货价格上涨了3,250美元。
Gold futures rose by 0.3%, trading at $3,243.10 by 01:23 ET (05:23 GMT).
黄金期货增长了0.3%,交易价格为3,243.10美元,比01:23 ET(GMT 05:23)。
Meanwhile, U.S. equity futures, including S&P 500 E-mini contracts, pointed lower in the morning hours, foreshadowing a defensive shift across markets that also affected Bitcoin’s price action.
同时,包括标准和P 500 E-MINI合同在内的美国股票期货在早晨的时间较低,预示了整个市场的防御转变,这也影响了比特币的价格行动。
Technical Outlook
技术前景
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at the $94,500 level, with a more substantial barrier at the $95,250 mark. If the price manages to break above $95,750, it could potentially test the $96,800 resistance before possibly challenging the $98,000 mark again.
从技术的角度来看,比特币在94,500美元的水平上面临立即的阻力,其障碍更高,达到95,250美元。如果价格设法超过95,750美元,它可能会测试96,800美元的电阻,然后再挑战98,000美元的成绩。
On the downside, Bitcoin has established support near $94,000, with major support at $93,500. If these levels fail to hold, further declines could take the price toward $92,500, with the main support sitting at $91,200.
不利的一面是,比特币已建立了近94,000美元的支持,主要支持为93,500美元。如果这些水平无法保持,则进一步的下降可能会将价格提高到92,500美元,主要支持为91,200美元。
Technical indicators show the hourly MACD losing momentum in the bearish zone, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below the 50 level, suggesting moderately bearish short-term sentiment.
技术指标表明,每小时MACD在看跌区域失去动力,而相对强度指数(RSI)降至50级以下,这表明中度是看跌的短期情绪。
The cryptocurrency’s next major price catalyst will likely be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. Traders are closely watching whether Chair Jerome Powell will resist calls for rate cuts or adopt a more balanced approach given mixed signals from inflation and employment data.
加密货币的下一个主要价格催化剂可能是美联储在周三的政策决定。贸易商正在仔细观察主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)是否会抗拒降低税率或采用更平衡的方法,鉴于通货膨胀和就业数据的混合信号。
For now, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, having pulled back from its recent attempt to break the $98,000 level. The short-term direction will depend on whether bulls can regain control above the $95,250 resistance or if bears push the price below the current support zone at $93,500.
目前,比特币仍处于整合阶段,从最近的尝试打破98,000美元的尝试中退缩了。短期方向将取决于公牛是否可以在95,250美元的电阻上重新获得控制权,或者熊是否将价格推到目前的支撑区低于93,500美元。
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