比特币（BTC）价格预测：回调不可避免吗？

在 6 月 13 日触及 6.8 万美元后，比特币 [BTC] 的价格转为看跌，因为该代币的周线图和日线图仍呈红色。

Bitcoin’s [BTC] price remained in the red on the 13th of June after touching $68k earlier in the month.

比特币 [BTC] 价格在本月早些时候触及 6.8 万美元后，在 6 月 13 日仍处于亏损状态。

However, a key indicator showed that BTC’s price had touched and dropped from a critical level, which could trigger a further price correction in the coming days.

然而，一项关键指标显示，比特币的价格已触及并从关键水平回落，这可能会在未来几天引发进一步的价格调整。

Bitcoin’s dark future

比特币的黑暗未来

According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin’s price dropped by nearly 4% in the last seven days. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $65,243.97 with a market capitalization of over $1.28 trillion.

根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，比特币的价格在过去 7 天内下跌了近 4%。截至撰写本文时，BTC 交易价格为 65,243.97 美元，市值超过 1.28 万亿美元。

Despite the recent price drop, data from AMBCrypto showed that the majority of BTC’s supply was still in the green. To be precise, 87% of BTC’s total supply was in profit.

尽管近期价格下跌，但 AMBCrypto 的数据显示，大部分 BTC 供应量仍处于绿色状态。准确地说，BTC总供应量的87%都在盈利。

Ali, a popular crypto analyst, posted a tweet highlighting a possible price correction. As per the tweet, BTC’s price dropped below the +0.5σ MVRV pricing band.

受欢迎的加密货币分析师阿里发布了一条推文，强调了可能的价格调整。根据该推文，BTC 的价格跌破 +0.5σ MVRV 定价区间。

This suggests that it may trigger a correction toward the mean pricing band of $54,930. AMBCrypto planned to have a closer look at BTC’s current state to see how likely it is for BTC to drop to $54k.

这表明它可能会引发平均定价区间 54,930 美元的回调。 AMBCrypto 计划仔细研究 BTC 的当前状态，看看 BTC 跌至 5.4 万美元的可能性有多大。

Is a price correction inevitable?

价格调整是不可避免的吗？

A look at CryptoQuant’s data showed that BTC’s exchange reserve was dropping, indicating that selling pressure on the coin was relatively weak.

CryptoQuant的数据显示，BTC的外汇储备正在下降，这表明该币的抛售压力相对较弱。

Moreover, the Miners’ Position Index showed that miners were selling fewer holdings compared to its one-year average, suggesting that miners were willing to hold BTC as they expected the coin’s price to rise.

此外，矿工头寸指数显示，与一年平均水平相比，矿工出售的资产较少，这表明矿工愿意持有比特币，因为他们预计比特币的价格会上涨。

In the derivatives market, the taker buy/sell ratio was green, indicating that buying sentiment was dominant in the derivatives market.

衍生品市场中，吃单者买入/卖出比率为绿色，表明衍生品市场买入情绪占主导地位。

Additionally, BTC’s funding rate was also rising, suggesting that long-position traders were paying short-position traders, which was usually a sign of optimism.

此外，比特币的资金费率也在上升，这表明多头交易者正在向空头交易者支付费用，这通常是乐观的迹象。

We then checked the king of cryptos’ daily chart to better understand what to expect from it in the near term.

然后，我们检查了加密货币之王的日线图，以更好地了解其近期的预期。

As per our analysis of BTC’s daily chart, its Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed bullish momentum as it went up. A similar increasing trend was also noted on the coin’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) chart.

根据我们对 BTC 日线图的分析，其相对强弱指数（RSI）在上涨过程中显示出看涨势头。该代币的 Chaikin 资金流向 (CMF) 图表上也出现了类似的增长趋势。

These indicators suggested that investors might soon witness a price increase.

这些指标表明投资者可能很快就会看到价格上涨。

However, the Money Flow Index (MFI) looked bearish as it dropped. The indicator hinted at a continued price decline, which might result in BTC dropping to $54k.

然而，资金流量指数（MFI）下跌，看起来看跌。该指标暗示价格持续下跌，这可能导致 BTC 跌至 5.4 万美元。