比特币（BTC）价格预测：到2025年底，BTC市值会达到1,200亿美元吗？

包括大型上市公司和政府在内的投资者的需求，开放比特币储备，加密资金，交易所交易资金（ETFS）的需求

According to a report by cryptocurrency index fund management company Bitwise, large public companies and governments are investing heavily in bitcoin (BTC), and this demand will cause significant capital inflows to the apex coin in the coming years.

根据加密货币指数管理公司位的一份报告，大型上市公司和政府正在对比特币（BTC）进行大量投资，这一需求将在未来几年引起大量资本流入。

The report highlighted that U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs registered $36.2 billion in net inflows in 2024, surpassing the early success of the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), which revolutionized gold investing. These ETFs reached $125 billion in assets under management (AUM) within 12 months — 20 times faster than GLD. At this rate, bitcoin will outperform gold, with a potential tripling of cash inflows to $100 billion annually by 2027.

该报告强调，美国现货比特币ETF在2024年获得了362亿美元的净流入，超过了SPDR Gold股票（GLD）的早期成功，这彻底改变了黄金投资。这些ETF在12个月内达到了管理资产的1,250亿美元，比GLD快20倍。以这种速度，比特币将胜过黄金，到2027年，现金流入的可能性增加到1000亿美元。

In addition to ETFs and wealth management companies, the attractiveness of bitcoin as a reserve asset is growing among public, private companies, and governments. Companies with BTC on their balance sheets currently hold about 1,146,128 BTC worth $125 billion, which is 5.8% of the total BTC supply.

除了ETF和财富管理公司外，比特币作为储备资产的吸引力在公共，私人公司和政府之间正在增长。 BTC拥有资产负债表的公司目前持有约1,146,128 BTC，价值1,250亿美元，占BTC总供应总额的5.8％。

Sovereigns hold a total of 529,705 BTC ($57.8 billion). Here are the top three: The United States has 207,189 BTC, China has 194,000 BTC, and the United Kingdom has 61,000 BTC.

Sovereigns总共持有529,705 BTC（578亿美元）。以下是前三名：美国有207,189 BTC，中国有194,000 BTC，英国有61,000 BTC。

Bitwise Senior Investment Strategist Juan Leon, UXTO Lead Researcher Guillaume Girard, and Research Analyst Will Owens outlined three scenarios: bearish, basic, and bullish.

Bitwise高级投资策略师Juan Leon，UXTO首席研究员Guillaume Girard和研究分析师将概述三种情况：看跌，基本和看涨。

In the bearish scenario, countries reallocated only 1% of their gold reserves to bitcoin, spurring inflows of $32.3 billion (323,000 BTC or 1.54% of supply). Several US states will set up 10% BTC reserves, adding $6.5 billion, while wealth management platforms will hold 0.1% BTC (worth $60 billion). Public companies will contribute another $58.9 billion.

在看跌的情况下，国家仅将其黄金储量的1％重新分配给比特币，促使流入323亿美元（323,000 BTC或供应量的1.54％）。美国几个州将建立10％的BTC储备，增加65亿美元，而财富管理平台将持有0.1％的BTC（价值600亿美元）。上市公司将再捐款589亿美元。

The baseline scenario assumes a 5% redistribution among states, generating $161.7 billion (1,617,000 BTC or 7.7% of the total supply). The United States will spend up to 30% of its gold and foreign exchange reserves ($19.6 billion), wealth management platforms will allocate 0.5% ($300 billion) to bitcoin, and public companies will double their investments to $117.8 billion.

基线情景假设各州的重新分配为5％，产生了1617亿美元（1,617,000 BTC或总供应量的7.7％）。美国的黄金和外汇储量（196亿美元）的最多将花费30％，财富管理平台将向比特币分配0.5％（3000亿美元），上市公司的投资将翻一番，达到1,178亿美元。

In the bullish scenario, 10% of the country’s gold will be poured into bitcoin, which will stimulate an inflow of $323.4 billion (3,234,000 BTC or 15.38% of the total coin supply). Adoption by US states will increase to 70% ($45.8 billion), wealth management platforms will distribute 1% ($600 billion), and public companies will raise up to $235.6 billion. Together, these financial injections could exceed $426.9 billion (4,269,000 BTC).

在看涨的情况下，该国10％的黄金将被倒入比特币中，这将刺激324亿美元的流入（3,234,000 BTC，占代币总供应量的15.38％）。美国各州采用将增加到70％（458亿美元），财富管理平台将分配1％（6000亿美元），并且上市公司将筹集高达2356亿美元。这些财务注射总值可能超过4269亿美元（4,269,000 BTC）。