比特币（BTC）价格下跌$ 102,400，随着华尔街的飙升，美国 - 中国紧张局势飙升

华尔街在华盛顿和北京之间缓解紧张局势的飙升时，比特币本身跌至$ 102,400以下

While Wall Street soared amid easing tensions between Washington and Beijing, bitcoin dropped below $102,400 on May 12. An unexpected decline, contrasting with the prevailing optimism and institutional momentum of recent weeks. Why did BTC not benefit from the market euphoria? Just hours before the release of the US CPI, investors wonder: a simple profit-taking, or a warning signal of deeper macroeconomic stress?

华尔街在华盛顿和北京之间缓解紧张局势时飙升，而比特币在5月12日下降到102,400美元以下。意外的下降，与近几周的普遍乐观和机构势头形成鲜明对比。为什么BTC不从市场上受益？在美国CPI发布前几个小时，投资者想知道：一个简单的盈利或更深层宏观经济压力的警告信号？

A technical correction driven by the macroeconomic context

由宏观经济环境驱动的技术校正

On May 12, bitcoin experienced a sudden drop, sliding from an intraday peak of $105,819 to a low of $102,388, without a clearly bearish macroeconomic catalyst. However, this decrease takes place in an overall favorable context.

5月12日，比特币突然下降，从105,819美元的盘中峰值下滑到102,388美元的低点，没有明显看跌的宏观经济催化剂。但是，这种减少是在整体有利的背景下发生的。

Trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing progressed in Geneva, which sparked enthusiasm in the market. Notably, US President Donald Trump himself praised the progress on his Truth Social platform, alluding to a promising agreement.

华盛顿和北京之间的贸易谈判在日内瓦进行了进展，这激发了市场的热情。值得注意的是，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）本人赞扬了他的真相社会平台上的进步，并提到了有前途的协议。

At market open, the Dow Jones soared by 1,000 points, but bitcoin did not follow suit. Some traders believe the market has already priced in the effects of Trump’s deal with China, as bitcoin failed to maintain its gains above $104,000 despite such major news.

在市场公开赛上，道琼斯琼斯飙升了1,000分，但比特币并未效仿。一些交易者认为，尽管这么重大新闻，但比特币未能将其维持在104,000美元以上的收益，因此该市场已经定价为特朗普与中国达成的影响。

Beyond this macroeconomic interpretation, market data reveals profit-taking and risk reduction by some investors. This caution could be linked to the anticipation of the CPI (Consumer Price Index) figures, scheduled for release on May 13. Technical and behavioral indicators support this hypothesis:

除了这种宏观经济解释之外，市场数据还揭示了一些投资者的利润和降低风险。该谨慎可以与计划于5月13日发布的CPI（消费者价格指数）数字的预期有关。技术和行为指标支持此假设：

* The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart crossed below the overbought zone, suggesting a potential loss of bullish steam.

* 4小时图表上的相对强度指数（RSI）越过了超买区，这表明看涨蒸汽的潜在损失。

* The Accumulation, Volume Point (AVP) indicator also shows a slight decrease, indicating reduced buying pressure.

*积累，体积点（AVP）指标还显示出略有下降，表明购买压力降低。

* Finally, the absence of strong follow-through after the attempt to break through the $104,000 resistance level, despite favorable news, points toward technical resistance.

*最终，尽管有好消息，但仍未达到104,000美元的阻力水平，但仍没有强大的追随者指向技术抵抗。

These signals confirm that BTC’s retreat is essentially technical and opportunistic, rather than a reaction to a deteriorated fundamental factor.

这些信号证实，BTC的撤退本质上是技术和机会主义的，而不是对恶化的基本因素的反应。