比特币 (BTC) 在突破 10 万美元里程碑之前面临潜在的稀缺冲击

比特币 (BTC) 正处于突破 10 万美元里程碑之前的最后阶段。接近这个价格时，可供出售的硬币变得越来越稀有。

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a minor supply shock at ranges near $100,000. The leading coin traded at $99,258.22, after briefly peaking above $99,600. At this range, coins available for sale on big exchanges are becoming more rarified. Only a few hundred BTC are in the sell wall standing between the current price level and a new all-time high.

比特币 (BTC) 面临着 10 万美元附近的小幅供应冲击。在短暂触及 99,600 美元上方的峰值后，领先的代币交易价格为 99,258.22 美元。在此范围内，可在大型交易所出售的硬币变得更加稀有。在当前价格水平和历史新高之间，只有几百个比特币处于卖出状态。

In the range between 99,000 and 100K, there are around 1,700 BTC available on the spot market for most major centralized exchanges. On the demand side, Tether minted another 1B tokens and made them available on Bitfinex, potentially adding another boost to break the $100K range.

大多数主要中心化交易所的现货市场上有大约 1,700 个比特币可供使用，范围在 99,000 到 100K 之间。在需求方面，Tether 又铸造了 1B 代币，并在 Bitfinex 上提供，这可能会进一步推动价格突破 10 万美元的范围。

BTC faces potential scarcity shock

BTC面临潜在的稀缺冲击

On Coinbase Prime, only 1,000 BTC are available for sale, with similar ask orders of 1,000 coins at slightly higher prices. This batch of coins is similar to the daily buying of Bitcoin ETF, though demand may shift at the higher price range.

在 Coinbase Prime 上，只有 1,000 个 BTC 可供出售，类似的 1,000 个比特币的卖单价格略高。这批代币与比特币 ETF 的日常购买类似，尽管需求可能会在较高的价格范围内发生变化。

The low availability of coins for sale coincides with an all-time low of available coins on exchanges. Exchange reserves are down to 2.3M coins, but even that metric does not guarantee that the actual coin owners would be willing to sell.

待售代币的供应量较低，与交易所可用代币的历史最低水平同时发生。外汇储备已降至 230 万枚代币，但即使是这个指标也不能保证实际的代币所有者愿意出售。

On-chain activity showed more than 810K transactions in the past 24 hours, at a level similar to the March price peak. The new price record also reawakened one old whale wallet with a 50 BTC block reward, though uncertain if the coins moved with the intention to sell. The outflows from exchanges also compensated for recent whale and miner profit-taking.

链上活动显示过去 24 小时内交易量超过 81 万笔，与 3 月份的价格峰值水平相似。新的价格记录也重新唤醒了一个老鲸鱼钱包，它获得了 50 BTC 的区块奖励，尽管不确定这些代币是否有出售的意图。交易所的资金流出也弥补了最近鲸鱼和矿商的获利了结。

The latest price expansion led to some selling from miners, as they managed to realize profits and sell above the breakeven price of producing new coins. Miners retained 2.03M BTC, down from 2.19M in September. The miner selling activity shows there are still enough buyers at each recent record price level, with strong holding demand.

最新的价格上涨导致矿商进行了一些抛售，因为他们设法实现利润并以高于生产新代币的盈亏平衡价格的价格出售。矿工保留了 203 万枚 BTC，低于 9 月份的 219 万枚。矿商的抛售活动表明，在最近的每一个创纪录的价格水平上仍然有足够的买家，持有需求强劲。

During the latest market rally, BTC had a more significant share of trading against the US dollar, carrying 27.33% of volumes. Instead of a premium on South Korean exchanges, BTC traded at a discount, down to the $97,000 range against the Korean won.

在最近的市场反弹中，比特币兑美元的交易量占据了更大的份额，占交易量的 27.33%。比特币在韩国交易所并没有出现溢价，而是打折交易，兑韩元跌至 97,000 美元的区间。

BTC market absorbs bearish selling pressure

BTC市场吸收看跌抛售压力

For BTC, this sell wall is nowhere near pressure coming from bear whales. Profit-taking at this level is still happening, though at a much lower rate compared to previous price ranges. The market has shown that even during less active periods, buyers can eat through as much as 50K BTC in days, as in the case of the selling by the German government.

对于比特币来说，这种抛售墙远不及来自熊鲸的压力。这一水平的获利了结仍在发生，尽管与之前的价格范围相比要低得多。市场表明，即使在不太活跃的时期，买家也可以在几天内吃掉多达 5 万枚比特币，就像德国政府抛售比特币的情况一样。

In the short term, the selling may cause slippage, as the last $1,000 turned out relatively hard to cross. BTC continued to fluctuate by a few hundred dollars, often dipping under the $99,000 range. The rally above $99,000 followed the uneventful expiry of $2.7B in options, where even whale sellers failed to bring the price down to maximum pain levels of $85,000.

短期内，抛售可能会导致滑点，因为最后 1,000 美元相对难以突破。 BTC继续波动数百美元，经常跌破99,000美元的区间。在 $2.7B 期权平安到期后，价格上涨至 99,000 美元以上，即使是鲸鱼卖家也未能将价格降至 85,000 美元的最大痛苦水平。

BTC is yet to face a $9B options expiry event at the end of November, scheduled for next Friday. The event may add to price volatility as whales try to sway the spot price.

BTC 尚未面临 11 月底定于下周五举行的 9B 美元期权到期事件。由于鲸鱼试图影响现货价格，该事件可能会加剧价格波动。

Even at close to $100,000, BTC is still in the accumulation stage, according to the Rainbow Chart model. The expectation that $100K would be a minor pit stop to a higher repricing may lead whales to keep holding.

根据彩虹图模型，即使价格接近 10 万美元，BTC 仍处于积累阶段。预期 10 万美元将是更高重新定价的一个小停顿，可能会导致鲸鱼继续持有。

In addition to short-term traders, BTC is still finding its way into the wallets of MARA Digital and Microstrategy. Both corporations announced large-scale purchases, aiming for the seven-figure range. MARA already completed a purchase of more than 5,000 coins for its reserves.

除了短期交易者之外，BTC 仍在寻找进入 MARA Digital 和 Microstrategy 钱包的途径。两家公司都宣布了大规模采购，目标是七位数的范围。 MARA 已经完成了对其储备的 5,000 多枚代币的购买。

The Bitcoin Fear and Greed index is at 94, a level not seen since the price recovery of 2020. The index shows trading behaviors linked to market optimism, expecting the rally will last. Bitcoin open interest on major centralized exchanges is still near its all-time high of $32B, with almost balanced ratios of longs to shorts. At this stage, price wars keep happening, though not with the same dramatic liquidations.

比特币恐惧与贪婪指数为 94，这是自 2020 年价格复苏以来未曾见过的水平。该指数显示交易行为与市场乐观情绪相关，预计反弹将持续。主要集中交易所的比特币未平仓合约仍接近历史高点 $32B，多头与空头比率几乎平衡。在这个阶段，价格战不断发生，尽管没有同样剧烈的清算。