普埃尔多次暗示市场顶部可能即将到来，比特币（BTC）矿工加大抛售热潮

自比特币 (BTC) 突破 10 万美元大关以来，矿工们加大了抛售热潮。仅 12 月份，矿工就售出了 140K BTC，价值 $13.72B。

Bitcoin [BTC] miners have been ramping up their selling activity ever since the cryptocurrency crossed the $100K mark. In December alone, miners have sold 140K BTC, which is valued at $13.72B at the time of writing.

自从加密货币突破 10 万美元大关以来，比特币 [BTC] 矿商一直在加大抛售活动。仅在 12 月，矿工就售出了 140K BTC，在撰写本文时价值为 $13.72B。

According to data from Santiment, this selling spree has seen the miner balance shrink from over 2M to 1.95M coins.

根据 Santiment 的数据，这次抛售热潮导致矿工余额从超过 200 万枚缩减至 195 万枚。

BTC steady above $100K

BTC 稳定在 10 万美元以上

Despite this aggressive selling, the king coin has managed to hold strong above $100K.

尽管抛售如此猛烈，这款王币仍坚守在 10 万美元以上。

However, the intensity of the miner sell-off seems less severe when gauged through the metric of miner outflows. This metric tracks all miner wallets and their transfers to exchanges.

然而，通过矿商外流指标来衡量，矿商抛售的强度似乎不那么严重。该指标跟踪所有矿工钱包及其向交易所的转账。

On the 12th of November, BTC saw its highest daily miner sell-off at 25K BTC. But the pressure has been easing since, as indicated by the decreasing miner outflows.

11 月 12 日，BTC 的矿工日抛售量达到 2.5 万枚，创下历史新高。但此后压力一直在缓解，矿工外流减少就表明了这一点。

Perhaps the bulk of the selling might have occurred via OTC (Over The Counter) markets.

也许大部分销售是通过场外交易（OTC）市场进行的。

That said, the overall December sell-off was too much for the demand from ETFs to handle. In the past two weeks, BTC ETFs have seen $4.9B in inflows. During this same time period, MicroStrategy purchased $3.6B in BTC.

也就是说，12 月份的整体抛售对于 ETF 的需求来说太大了，无法应对。过去两周，BTC ETF 资金流入达 $4.9B。同一时期，MicroStrategy 购买了 3.6B 美元的 BTC。

If we exclude Mara Digital and other companies with BTC corporate treasuries, then ETFs and MicroStrategy together clocked up $8.3B in BTC demand over the past two weeks. This was slightly less than the $13.72B in supply from miners.

如果我们排除 Mara Digital 和其他拥有 BTC 公司金库的公司，那么过去两周 ETF 和 MicroStrategy 的 BTC 需求总计增加了 8.3B 美元。这略低于矿工的 $13.72B 供应量。

So, should this intense miner selling be a cause for concern for your portfolio? We checked the Puell Multiple to gain some insight.

那么，这种强烈的矿商抛售是否应该成为您投资组合的担忧呢？我们检查了普尔倍数以获得一些见解。

For those who don’t know, the Puell Multiple helps users gauge BTC valuation and cycles from the perspective of miners. If the metric climbs to the upper band, then BTC’s value is deemed unsustainably high.

对于那些不知道的人来说，普埃尔倍数可以帮助用户从矿工的角度衡量 BTC 估值和周期。如果该指标攀升至上限，那么 BTC 的价值将被视为不可持续的高位。

On the other hand, a low Puell Multiple reading suggests that BTC is relatively undervalued.

另一方面，较低的普埃尔倍数读数表明 BTC 的价值相对被低估。

In early 2024, the metric hit 2.4, marking a local BTC top at $73.7K. At press time, the metric was reading 1.3, with not much left before crossing 2 or the upper band.

2024 年初，该指标达到 2.4，标志着当地 BTC 价格达到 7.37 万美元。截至发稿时，该指标读数为 1.3，距离突破 2 或上限已经所剩无几了。

So, according to the Puell Multiple and the miners’ perspective, BTC was not yet overvalued or heated, but that could change if the metric went above 2.

因此，根据 Puell Multiple 和矿工的观点，BTC 尚未被高估或过热，但如果该指标超过 2，情况可能会发生变化。

Meanwhile, BTC consolidated below $102K as we approached the Fed rate decision on 18 December.

与此同时，随着 12 月 18 日美联储利率决定的临近，比特币在 10.2 万美元下方盘整。