比特币（BTC）在特朗普延迟欧盟关税后反弹，尽管7月9日之前的不确定性

上周下旬，在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）提议将欧洲进口的关税提高到50％之后，市场受到了震惊，高于先前讨论的20％。

U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to raise tariffs on European imports sparked a volatile session for crypto markets last week, but the episode also brought a surprising resilience to digital assets as Trump later announced a delay to the new levies.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）提出对欧洲进口的关税的提议引发了上周的加密货币市场的动荡，但由于特朗普后来宣布延迟新税款，这一集也给数字资产带来了令人惊讶的弹性。

The Trump administration announced Friday it was increasing tariffs on European goods to 50%, compared to the 20% tariffs previously discussed. The move, in retaliation for what the U.S. says is unfair trade practices by the European Union, sparked a weekend selloff in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

特朗普政府周五宣布，将欧洲商品的关税提高到50％，而先前讨论的20％的关税。此举是为了报复美国所说的是欧盟不公平的贸易行为，引发了周末的风险资产，包括加密货币。

However, the White House later announced the new tariffs would be postponed until July 9 following a “constructive call” between Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

但是，白宫后来宣布，在特朗普和欧洲委员会主席乌苏拉·冯·德·莱恩（Ursula von der Leyen）之间的“建设性电话”之后，新的关税将被推迟到7月9日。

“Bitcoin's rebound came after Trump decided to delay imposing new EU tariffs, which had initially sparked a market downturn over the weekend,” Jeffrey Ding, chief analyst at HashKey Group, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message.

Hashkey Group的首席分析师Jeffrey Ding在一份电报消息中告诉Coindesk。

“Traders see these macroeconomic events as a welcome stability boost, encouraging a risk-on sentiment, especially as MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR)‘s Michael Saylor hinted at upcoming bitcoin purchases,” Ding added.

丁补充说：“交易者将这些宏观经济事件视为受欢迎的稳定性提高，鼓励风险持续的情绪，尤其是当MicroStrategy（NASDAQ：MSTR）的Michael Saylor暗示即将进行的比特币购买暗示。”

Markets calmed somewhat on Monday after Trump announced he would delay the implementation of new tariffs until July 9, citing a “constructive call” with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

在特朗普宣布将新关税的实施推迟到7月9日之后，市场在周一有些平静，并以欧洲委员会主席厄休拉·冯·德·莱恩（Ursula Von der Leyen）为“建设性电话”。

Still, Singapore-based QCP Capital warned in a market broadcast message late Monday that the episode is a reminder of how quickly policy shocks can unwind market calm.

尽管如此，总部位于新加坡的QCP Capital在周一晚些时候在市场广播消息中警告说，这一集提醒人们政策冲击能够使市场平静下来。

The BTC July-to-June implied volatility spread, which spiked above 2 vols last week, has now compressed to below 1 — suggesting traders are watching closely for another pivot ahead of the new deadline.

BTC 7月至6月暗示的波动率上周在2卷以上的波动性传播现已压缩至1次以下 - 这表明交易者正在密切关注新的截止日期之前的另一个枢纽。

The vol spread refers to the difference in expected volatility between July and June bitcoin options, showing how much more (or less) traders expect price swings in July compared to June.

VOL点差是指7月和6月比特币选项之间的预期波动率差异，这表明与6月相比，交易者预计7月的价格波动更多。

All eyes are now on this Friday’s Core PCE print, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, the firm noted. The index is a measure of inflation that excludes the volatile prices of food and energy — and is considered a key indicator used by the Fed to assess inflation and make policy decisions.

该公司指出，现在所有人的目光都集中在这个星期五的核心PCE印刷品上，这是美联储的关键通货膨胀量表。该指数是通货膨胀量的衡量标准，不包括食品和能源的波动价格 - 被认为是美联储评估通货膨胀和做出政策决策的关键指标。

Despite the uncertainty, spot ETF inflows remain steady, with BlackRock’s IBIT logging 30 consecutive days of net inflows — a rare streak that underscores sticky institutional interest.

尽管存在不确定性，但现场ETF的流入仍然稳定，贝莱德的IBIT记录连续30天的净流入 - 这种罕见的条纹突显了机构的兴趣。

Still, crypto’s resilience has been relative, not absolute. QCP noted a divergence between digital assets and traditional tech as flows have turned cautious in products like the TQQQ NASDAQ ETF, even as crypto held its ground.

尽管如此，加密的弹性仍然是相对的，不是绝对的。 QCP指出，数字资产与传统技术之间的分歧是因为Crypto持有地面，在TQQQ NASDAQ ETF等产品中的流量已经谨慎。

“In a world of erratic policymaking,” QCP wrote, “crypto increasingly looks like the grown-up at the table.”

QCP写道：“在一个不稳定的决策世界中，加密货币越来越像桌子上的成年人。”