比特币（BTC）面临市场波动，长期持有者开始抛售，ATH 的反弹看起来不可持续

在昨天暴跌之前，比特币最近的反弹将资产推升至 108,000 美元的历史新高

Bitcoin’s recent rally was able to propel the asset to a new all-time high of $108,000 before yesterday’s plunge, marking another significant milestone in its upward trajectory.

比特币最近的反弹推动该资产在昨天暴跌之前创下 108,000 美元的历史新高，标志着其上涨轨迹的另一个重要里程碑。

However, according to the latest analysis, this notable price surge is accompanied by signs of potential market volatility, as long-term holders begin to exhibit selling activity.

然而，根据最新分析，随着长期持有者开始表现出抛售活动，这种显着的价格飙升伴随着潜在市场波动的迹象。

Attention has been turned to the Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, a critical tool for assessing the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders.

人们的注意力已转向二元币销毁天数（CDD）指标，这是评估长期比特币持有者行为的关键工具。

Bitcoin’s recent rally was able to propel the asset to a new all-time high before yesterday’s plunge. But what do long-term holders signal now?

比特币最近的反弹推动该资产在昨天暴跌之前创下历史新高。但长期持有者现在发出了什么信号？

The Binary CDD metric tracks the activity of long-term holders by measuring the number of “coin days” destroyed relative to the total supply. When this metric spikes, it often indicates increased selling pressure from long-term investors.

二进制 CDD 指标通过测量相对于总供应量的销毁“币天数”来跟踪长期持有者的活动。当该指标飙升时，通常表明长期投资者的抛售压力增加。

According to a CryptoQuant analyst, ShayanBTC, the Binary CDD metric has recently recorded a sharp increase, coinciding with Bitcoin’s new price high. Historically, such spikes in this metric have been precursors to market corrections, suggesting that these holders are taking advantage of current price levels to reduce their exposure.

根据 CryptoQuant 分析师 ShayanBTC 的说法，二进制 CDD 指标最近急剧增长，与比特币的新价格高点一致。从历史上看，该指标的这种飙升一直是市场调整的前兆，表明这些持有者正在利用当前的价格水平来减少其风险敞口。

Shayan added that the long-term holders’ actions often serve as a barometer for broader market sentiment. The recent surge in the Binary CDD metric suggests that these holders might view the peak above $108,000 as a strategic exit point. If this selling pressure intensifies, it could lead to heightened market volatility and potentially trigger a price correction.

Shayan 补充说，长期持有者的行为通常可以作为更广泛市场情绪的晴雨表。最近二元 CDD 指标的飙升表明，这些持有者可能将 108,000 美元以上的峰值视为战略退出点。如果这种抛售压力加剧，可能会导致市场波动加剧，并可能引发价格调整。

Bitcoin’s market outlook

比特币的市场前景

Bitcoin has recorded a rollercoaster move in the past day. Particularly, following the FOMC news outcome yesterday along with the speech from Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States, Bitcoin saw a significant plunge in its price dropping to as low as the $98,000 level.

比特币在过去一天经历了过山车般的走势。特别是，随着昨天 FOMC 的消息公布以及美国联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的讲话，比特币价格大幅下跌，跌至 98,000 美元的低点。

However, the latest price action has been quite interesting as BTC is showing a rebound. In the early hours of Thursday, Bitcoin saw a recovery in price after reclaiming the $100,000 to trade as high as above $105,000.

然而，随着 BTC 出现反弹，最新的价格走势非常有趣。周四凌晨，比特币价格在收复 100,000 美元之后出现反弹，交易价格高达 105,000 美元以上。

Currently, Bitcoin has seen a retrace back to a price of $100,718, at the time of writing, marking a 3.5% decrease in the past day and roughly 6.6% reduction away from its all-time high (ATH).

目前，截至撰写本文时，比特币价格已回撤至 100,718 美元，较过去一天下跌 3.5%，较历史高点 (ATH) 下跌约 6.6%。

Meanwhile, adding to Shayan’s narrative, another CryptoQuant analyst, Onatt, highlighted additional market indicators that hint at potential turbulence.

与此同时，除了 Shayan 的叙述之外，另一位 CryptoQuant 分析师 Onatt 还强调了暗示潜在动荡的其他市场指标。

The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges, is currently in negative territory, indicating increased selling pressure.

跟踪 Coinbase 与其他交易所之间价格差异的 Coinbase 溢价指数目前处于负值区域，表明抛售压力增加。

Related: Bitcoin price still mirroring bullish move from 2013, what to expect after hitting $108,000 ATH

相关：比特币价格仍反映 2013 年的看涨走势，触及 108,000 美元后会发生什么

Furthermore, the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR), a metric used to gauge profit-taking behavior, has shown sudden spikes.

此外，调整后的支出产出利润率（aSOPR）（用于衡量获利回吐行为的指标）已出现突然飙升。

According to Onatt, these signals collectively highlight the need for sustained institutional demand, particularly through Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), to stabilize market conditions.

Onatt 表示，这些信号共同强调了持续的机构需求的必要性，特别是通过比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）来稳定市场状况。