交易所的比特币（BTC）库存最近有所下降：这对加密货币的价格意味着什么

数据显示，近期交易所的纸质比特币库存一直在下降。这对加密货币的价格可能意味着什么。

Bitcoin's price has been struggling to gain any momentum in recent days. After failing to hold onto the crucial support at $60,000, the cryptocurrency fell to lows of $57,800.

最近几天，比特币的价格一直在努力获得动力。在未能守住 60,000 美元的关键支撑位后，加密货币跌至 57,800 美元的低点。

Now, as BTC attempts to recover from this latest drop, a new analysis suggests that the recent bearish price action may have been caused by a factor that has historically proven to be bearish for the asset.

现在，随着比特币试图从最近的下跌中恢复过来，一项新的分析表明，最近的看跌价格走势可能是由历史上被证明对该资产不利的因素造成的。

Bitcoin Exchange Inventory Wiped Out In Recent Bearish Trend

比特币交易所库存在最近的看跌趋势中消失

Bitcoin's price has been making lower highs and lower lows ever since it crashed from the all-time high at the start of April. The cryptocurrency briefly recovered from the $54,000 lows set during that downturn, but it failed to gain any momentum to the upside.

自从四月初比特币的历史高点暴跌以来，比特币的价格一直在不断降低高点和低点。该加密货币曾一度从经济低迷时期创下的 54,000 美元低点回升，但未能获得任何上涨动力。

After peaking at highs of $59,000 in the second week of May, BTC once again began crashing. This time, the selling pressure pushed the asset to lows of $57,800.

在 5 月第二周触及 59,000 美元高点后，BTC 再次开始崩盘。这次，抛售压力将该资产推低至 57,800 美元。

As Bitcoin fell sharply from $60,000, on-chain analyst Willy Woo noted that the combined Bitcoin inventory on centralized exchanges rose sharply. This metric combines the exchange's spot BTC holdings with their paper BTC.

随着比特币从 6 万美元大幅下跌，链上分析师 Willy Woo 指出，中心化交易所的比特币总库存大幅上升。该指标将交易所持有的现货 BTC 与其纸质 BTC 结合起来。

The chart below showcases this combined exchange inventory in blue, while the bottom-most curve shows the spot BTC (real token) held by the exchanges.

下图以蓝色显示了交易所的合并库存，而最底部的曲线显示了交易所持有的现货 BTC（真实代币）。

Combined Bitcoin Inventory On Exchanges Peaks At Top Of Bearish Wave (X)

交易所的比特币综合库存达到看跌浪潮顶部的峰值 (X)

Interestingly, while the total exchange inventory began rising earlier in the year, the spot BTC holdings peaked around the same time as the asset crashed from $50,000 in April.

有趣的是，虽然今年早些时候交易所总库存开始上升，但现货 BTC 持有量大约在该资产从 4 月份的 5 万美元暴跌的同时达到顶峰。

After peaking then, the spot BTC exchange inventory has been consolidating. Meanwhile, the combined metric continued rising until Bitcoin fell from $60,000.

在达到峰值后，现货 BTC 交易所库存一直在整合。与此同时，综合指标继续上涨，直到比特币从 60,000 美元下跌。

This suggests that the bulk of the increase in the exchange inventory was driven by the printing of paper BTC, an occurrence that has historically preceded large crashes in the cryptocurrency.

这表明，交易所库存的增长大部分是由纸质 BTC 的印刷推动的，这种情况历史上曾发生在加密货币大幅崩盘之前。

Combined Exchange Inventory Hit New All-Time Highs Before FTX Crash (X)

FTX 崩盘前交易所综合库存创下历史新高 (X)

As seen in the chart above, the last time the combined exchange inventory hit all-time highs was in the lead-up to the FTX crash in November 2022.

如上图所示，上一次交易所综合库存创下历史新高是在 2022 年 11 月 FTX 崩盘之前。

During that period as well, the increase in the exchange inventory was largely driven by the growth in paper BTC, a derivatives product that doesn't involve the investor actually owning any BTC.

在此期间，交易所库存的增加主要是由纸质比特币的增长推动的，纸质比特币是一种衍生产品，不涉及投资者实际拥有任何比特币。