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加密货币新闻

比特币(BTC)形成新的运动模式,与风险资产分离

2025/04/29 22:21

纽约数字投资集团(NYDIG)的最新报告显示,比特币市场行为发生了重大变化。

比特币(BTC)形成新的运动模式,与风险资产分离

A recent report by the New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) has highlighted a significant shift in Bitcoin's market behavior, forming a new pattern of movement that is not in line with risk assets.

纽约数字投资集团(NYDIG)最近的一份报告强调了比特币市场行为发生了重大变化,形成了一种与风险资产不符的新运动模式。

The report, titled "The Fabric of Financial Value: Decoding a New Macro Regime," delves into the broader market trends and their implications for Bitcoin. At a time when the S&P 500 index was showing declines and traditional safe-haven assets, such as the U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury bonds, were also losing ground, Bitcoin displayed strong gains.

该报告的标题为“财务价值的结构:解码新的宏观制度”,研究了更广泛的市场趋势及其对比特币的影响。在标普500指数显示下降的时候,传统的避风势资产(例如美元和10年的国库券)也丢失了地面,比特币表现出巨大的收益。

"Since ‘Liberation Day’ on April 2, a new picture of defensive assets has begun to emerge that includes Bitcoin," the report stated. "The first cryptocurrency has begun to behave more like the non-sovereign store of value that it inherently is, while other assets that were previously perceived as defensive, such as the U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury bonds, have shown weakness."

报告说:“自4月2日的'解放日'以来,防御性资产的新照片已经开始出现,其中包括比特币。” “第一次加密货币已经开始表现得更类似于它固有的价值存储,而其他以前被认为是防御性的资产,例如美元和10年的国库债券,表现出弱点。”

The New York Digital Investment Group's analysis shows a general trend - investors avoided pro-cyclical and U.S.-related assets. Among equities, either non-U.S. equities (developed and emerging markets) or defensive sectors of the U.S. equity market performed relatively well. Meanwhile, fixed income instruments performed better than equities, and gold outperformed commodity baskets, including energy and agriculture.

纽约数字投资集团的分析显示了一般趋势 - 投资者避免了促成周期性和与美国相关的资产。在股票中,非美国股票(发达和新兴市场)或美国股票市场的防御部门的表现相对较好。同时,固定收益工具的性能要比股票更好,黄金优于包括能源和农业在内的商品篮子。

"There are surprisingly few large and liquid options for investors who wish to avoid the impact of these geopolitical factors," the report noted. "All fiat currencies are ultimately linked to sovereign states, and even the Swiss franc has at times been subject to intervention by the Swiss National Bank."

报告指出:“对于希望避免这些地缘政治因素影响的投资者来说,很少有大型和流动性选择。” “所有法定货币最终都与主权国家有关,甚至瑞士法郎有时也受到瑞士国家银行的干预。”

The report's authors further explained that several cryptocurrencies are serving distinct functions in this evolving landscape. Among the major cryptocurrencies, only Bitcoin is focusing entirely on monetary or stored value functions, while other cryptocurrencies are better described as fuel for decentralized application platforms.

该报告的作者进一步解释说,在这种不断发展的景观中,有几种加密货币正在发挥不同的功能。在主要的加密货币中,只有比特币完全专注于货币或存储的价值功能,而其他加密货币则可以更好地描述为分散应用程序平台的燃料。

"The next four years will be accompanied by structurally higher volatility," the analysts stated. "Data shows a jump in volatility in equities (VIX index), currencies (CVIX index), and interest rates/bonds (MOVE index), and it is unlikely that these indicators will return to previous low levels."

分析师说:“接下来的四年将伴随着结构上更高的波动性。” “数据显示股票(VIX指数),货币(CVIX指数)和利率/债券(移动指数)的波动率有所增加,这些指标不太可能返回以前的低级水平。”

This heightened volatility, a direct consequence of the war in Ukraine and the subsequent economic uncertainty, has caused investors to question the reliability of the US dollar as a benchmark for "risk-free" investing.

这种波动性的提高,是乌克兰战争的直接后果以及随后的经济不确定性,使投资者质疑美元的可靠性,作为“无风险”投资的基准。

The U.S. is currently engaged in a grand experiment with several initiatives unfolding simultaneously - in trade, immigration, fiscal spending, and deregulation - the results of which are yet to be determined.

美国目前正在进行一项大型实验,并在贸易,移民,财政支出和放松管制方面同时展开了几项倡议 - 结果尚未确定。

"The common denominator among these initiatives is an attempt to alter the fundamental economic and political equilibrium in order to generate new solutions to pressing issues such as income inequality, low interest rates, and a perceived decline in U.S. hegemony," the New York Digital Investment Group analysts explained.

纽约数字投资集团分析师解释说:“这些举措之间的共同点是试图改变基本的经济和政治均衡,以便为迫切的问题提供新的解决方案,例如收入不平等,低利率和美国霸权的感知下降。”

"However, despite the urgency, it is unclear whether these measures will succeed in the long term, and their short-term impact has been minimal. In fact, several of these initiatives have stalled or faced setbacks."

“但是,尽管有紧迫性,但尚不清楚这些措施从长远来看是否会成功,而且它们的短期影响至少。

These endeavors are part of a broader theme in which established systems and institutions are being questioned and new paradigms are emerging in response to both perceived and real crises. This theme is also evident in the cryptocurrency sector, which is spurring innovation in decentralized finance and blockchain technology.

这些努力是一个更广泛的主题的一部分,在该主题中,既定的系统和机构正在受到质疑,并且为了应对感知和真实的危机而出现了新的范式。该主题在加密货币领域也很明显,该领域激发了分散的金融和区块链技术的创新。

The report highlights the shifting roles of traditional and crypto assets in a turbulent market, presenting a unique perspective on the evolving fabric of financial value in the post-pandemic, war-torn world.

该报告强调了传统和加密资产在动荡的市场中的转变,展现了关于经济价值不断发展的财务价值结构的独特视角。

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