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在令人惊讶的发展中,与比特币(BTC)和欧元美元(EUR/USD)汇率相关的期权表明,尽管美国股票市场下跌,但兑美元汇率的实力。
In a surprising development, options linked to bitcoin (BTC) and the euro-dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate are indicating strength against the U.S. dollar despite a downturn in the U.S. stock market. This trend suggests the “sell America” trade is gathering pace.
在令人惊讶的发展中,与比特币(BTC)和欧元美元(EUR/USD)汇率相关的期权表明,尽管美国股票市场下跌,但兑美元汇率的实力。这种趋势表明,“卖美国”贸易正在采取步伐。
Currently, bitcoin’s short- and near-dated risk reversals — which measure the demand for call options relative to put options — were slightly positive, indicating a bullish bias. The data, drawn from sources like Deribit and Amberdata, signals a recovery from the previous trend where there was a consistent preference for puts in near-dated options.
目前,比特币的短期和近日期的风险逆转(衡量了相对于PUT期权的呼叫期权的需求)略有阳性,表明是看涨的偏见。来自诸如Deribit和Amberdata之类的来源绘制的数据标志着从以前的趋势中恢复了,因为在近日期内对推杆有一致的偏好。
In parallel, the one-month EUR/USD risk reversal has also flipped to positive, demonstrating a favorable outlook for EUR call options, according to data tracked by Jens Nordvig, founder and CEO of Exante Data Inc.
Exante Data Data Inc.的创始人兼首席执行官Jens Nordvig表示,同时,一个月的欧/美元风险逆转也已变为正面,表明了对欧洲呼叫期权的有利前景。
A call option gives the buyer asymmetric upside exposure to the underlying asset, while a put option provides protection against price declines. As such, a call buyer is implicitly bullish, whereas a put buyer is bearish, seeking to hedge or profit from anticipated price drops.
呼叫选项使买方不对称的上行资产不对称上行的接触,而看位期权则可以保护价格下降。因此,呼叫购买者隐含地看涨,而看跌的买家则是看跌,寻求对冲或从预期的价格下跌中获利。
The preference for BTC and EUR call options over the dollar indicates expectations for continued capital rotation away from U.S. assets, which have recently fallen out of favor with investors, and into bitcoin, the euro, and other assets such as gold.
BTC和EUR呼叫期权的偏爱超过美元,这表明人们对持续资本轮换的期望是最近对投资者的青睐,而这些资产却不受投资者的青睐,以及比特币,欧元和其他资产(例如黄金)的期望。
On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted more than 700 points, bringing its month-to-date decline to over 9%. In tandem, the dollar index — reflecting the greenback’s performance against major fiat currencies, including the euro — slid to a three-year low of 98, down 10% over the past three months. Additionally, prices for longer-duration Treasury notes have dropped, resulting in the 30-year yield rising by over five basis points to 4.90%.
周一,道琼斯工业平均水平下降了700多分,使月至日期下降到9%以上。同时,美元指数 - 反映了包括欧元在内的主要法定货币的绿色表现,在过去三个月中滑到了98的三年低点,下降了10%。此外,较长的财政部票据的价格下跌,导致30年的收益率上升了5个以上,至4.90%。
The concurrent sell-off in U.S. assets coincides with escalating policy uncertainty arising from President Donald Trump’s trade war and his reported intentions to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell, along with calls for a re-evaluation of trading strategies.
美国资产的同时抛售与唐纳德·特朗普总统的贸易战争引起的政策不确定性不确定性同时,他的报道旨在驳回美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell),并呼吁重新评估贸易策略。
“We are in a STRATEGIC asset allocation shift that is causing all kind of correlations to flip in a historical way. It is a time for many investors to take a step back, and think fresh,” Nordvig said on X.
诺德维格在X上说:“我们正处于战略资产分配的转变中,导致各种相关性以历史的方式翻转。现在是许多投资者退后一步并思考新鲜的时候了。”
On Monday, BTC climbed past $88,000, with the EUR/USD rising to 1.1575, the highest since November 2021. Gold topped the $3,400 per ounce price mark for the first time and rose to a new lifetime high of $3,495 at press time.
周一,BTC攀升了88,000美元,欧元/美元上升至1.1575,这是2021年11月以来最高的。黄金首次超过了每盎司3,400美元的每盎司3,400美元,并在新闻发布会上升至3,495美元的新寿命。
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