比特币（BTC）成为针对全身风险的首选对冲

这一时期与对美联储的独立性以及美国金融体系的合理性的忧虑越来越吻合。

A recent Standard Chartered analysis highlights Bitcoin (BTC) once again emerging as a preferred hedge against systemic risk. This period coincides with growing concerns over the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

最近的标准特许分析突出显示了比特币（BTC）再次成为针对系统性风险的首选对冲。这一时期与对美国美联储独立的关注日益加剧。

As the fabric of the American financial system comes into question, investors are turning to alternative assets, notably pushing Bitcoin higher.

随着美国金融体系的结构受到质疑，投资者正在转向替代资产，尤其是将比特币提高。

Growing Political Concerns over Fed Independence

人们对融合独立的政治关注日益关注

This period aligns with growing apprehensions over the independence of the Fed and, consequently, the soundness of the American financial system. Concern has increased as a result of President Trump’s repeated criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, his demands for lower interest rates, and even his proposal to fire Powell before the conclusion of his 2026 term.

这一时期与对美联储的独立性以及美国金融体系的合理性的忧虑越来越吻合。由于特朗普一再批评美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell），他对较低的利率的要求，甚至他在2026年任期结束之前就解雇鲍威尔的提议，人们的关注加剧了。

Pressure on financial markets has led to sell-offs in equities and currencies, and U.S. Treasury rates have risen to a 12-year high. Experts caution that undermining the Fed’s independence would have far-reaching effects, including increased inflation, higher long-term interest rates, and a decline in confidence in the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

对金融市场的压力导致股票和货币的抛售，美国国库利率已上升至12年。专家警告说，破坏美联储的独立性将产生深远的影响，包括通货膨胀率提高，长期利率和对美元作为全球储备货币的信心下降。

Bitcoin as Tech Proxy and Systemic Hedge

比特币作为技术代理和系统性树篱

The research highlights Bitcoin’s unique position in the realm of investing, where it serves two purposes. When things are relatively calm, it moves in lockstep with high-growth technology stock.

该研究强调了比特币在投资领域中的独特地位，它有两个目的。当事情相对平静时，它会以高增长的技术库存锁定。

However, during times of political or economic turmoil as well as sovereign concerns, it acts as a hedge.

但是，在政治或经济动荡的时期以及主权关注时，它是对冲。

According to Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research and the report’s author, Bitcoin and the U.S. Treasury term premium are strongly correlated. The premium, which gauges the risk associated with government debt, has increased as markets account for uncertainty about the Fed’s future course.

该银行全球数字资产研究负责人杰弗里·肯德里克（Geoffrey Kendrick）表示，该报告的作者比特币和美国财政期限溢价密切相关。溢价衡量与政府债务相关的风险，随着市场解决美联储未来课程的不确定性。

Despite Bitcoin lagging behind the rise in the term premium, he believes persistent doubts about the Fed’s independence will likely push BTC to new highs.

尽管比特币落后于“溢价”一词，但他认为对美联储独立性的持续怀疑可能会将BTC推向新高。

'Unlikely' But Possible 2025 Bitcoin Price Target of $200,000

“不太可能”但可能2025比特币的价格目标为200,000美元

Maintaining a year-end 2025 goal of $200,000, Standard Chartered is doubling down on its optimistic Bitcoin prediction, forecasting $500,000 by the end of 2028. Other business executives also echoed the bank’s views.

标准包机保持了200,000美元的年底2025年目标，将其乐观的比特币预测降低了一倍，预计到2028年底将预测500,000美元。其他业务高管也呼应了银行的观点。

For instance, Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, recently advised investors to raise their exposure to Bitcoin and gold as necessary hedges against inflation, fiscal uncertainty, and worldwide de-dollarization trends.

例如，Vaneck的首席执行官Jan Van Eck最近建议投资者提高其对比特币和黄金的曝光，以应对通货膨胀，财政不确定性和全球范围内的趋势。

Wary of potential capital flight and the risk of increased borrowing costs if the Fed’s credibility is questioned, investors are looking for substitutes for conventional U.S. assets.

警惕潜在的资本飞行和增加借贷成本的风险，如果质疑美联储的信誉，投资者正在寻找用于美国常规资产的替代品。

As a result, Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and independence from government control are increasing its appeal for both institutional and retail investors.

结果，比特币的分散性质和远离政府控制的独立性正在增加对机构和零售投资者的吸引力。