仅在过去的30天中，比特币（BTC 0.47％）上升了约25％。这就是为什么它将继续攀登

仅在过去的30天中，比特币（BTC 0.47％）上升了约25％。很可能不继续上升，并且有一个巨大而不可否认的理由使情况如此。

Bitcoin (BTC 0.47%) is up about 25% in the last 30 days alone. It's more likely than not to continue rising, and there's one huge and undeniable reason that makes that the case.

仅在过去的30天中，比特币（BTC 0.47％）上升了约25％。很可能不继续上升，并且有一个巨大而不可否认的理由使情况如此。

So, without further ado, here's why the rest of 2025 is probably going to be a great time for holders.

因此，事不宜迟，这就是为什么2025年其余时间可能是持有人的好时机的原因。

Investors' emotions matter a great deal

投资者的情绪很重要

We all look at the performance of our investments. The brokerage websites and applications make it easy to see exactly how your favorite stock or cryptocurrency is performing relative to your cost basis. Total gains are denoted in green, and losses in red.

我们都看着投资的绩效。经纪网站和应用程序使您可以轻松查看您喜欢的股票或加密货币相对于您的成本基础的表现。总收益表示为绿色，损失为红色。

The temptation to sell one of your holdings is much higher when your total return is negative. Conversely, it's fairly easy to continue retaining an investment when it's obvious that your (genius) investment thesis is playing out, as shown by a healthy gain. If you're like most people, you probably take a look at the price chart of your investments from time to time, whether you're holding them at a loss or a gain. Upward-climbing charts are, at least psychologically, proof that your gains will continue to grow, whereas tumbling lines on the chart are sufficient to cement your dread that your losses will deepen, prompting you to sell.

当您的总回报率为负数时，出售您的股份之一的诱惑要高得多。相反，当您的（天才）投资论文正在播放时，继续保留投资非常容易，如健康的收益所示。如果您像大多数人一样，您可能会不时查看投资的价格表，无论您是亏损还是收益。至少在心理上，向上攀爬的图表证明了您的收益将继续增长，而图表上的翻滚线路足以巩固您的恐惧，使您的损失会加深，促使您出售。

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

Putting aside the invalidity of short-term price-based reasoning about whether to buy, hold, or sell an asset, it's undeniable that investors are an emotional bunch that tend not to be able to maintain a long-term mindset about their holdings when faced with the anxiety of experiencing losses. At the same time, when most of the investors who hold an asset are holding it at a gain rather than a loss, incredible things can happen -- and that's exactly what's happening with Bitcoin right now.

抛开有关是否购买，持有还是出售资产的基于短期价格的推理的无效，不可否认的是，投资者是一群情感上的一堆，当面对遭受损失的焦虑时，往往无法保持对自己的持股的长期思维方式。同时，当持有资产的大多数投资者都将其持有而不是损失时，可能会发生令人难以置信的事情 - 这正是比特币正在发生的事情。

As of May 5, according to data from Glassnode, a cryptocurrency data provider, at the price of $95,000 per coin, about 88% of all Bitcoin wallets were holding Bitcoin at a gain rather than a loss. And that's the huge reason why it's likely to keep climbing.

截至5月5日，根据GlassNode的数据，加密货币数据提供商的价格为每枚硬币95,000美元，所有比特币钱包中约有88％的收益是持有比特币，而不是损失。这就是为什么它可能继续攀爬的重要原因。

The price of the coin is currently more than $103,000. The overwhelming majority of Bitcoin's holders are not under any emotional pressure to cut their losses whatsoever. That means they are far more likely to continue holding and adding to their positions than they are to sell.

硬币的价格目前超过103,000美元。绝大多数比特币的持有人都没有承受任何削减损失的情感压力。这意味着他们更有可能继续保持和增加自己的职位，而不是出售。

That is going to continue driving the coin's price even higher in the short term, even before taking any of the other powerful drivers for its value into account.

这将在短期内继续推动硬币的价格更高，甚至在考虑其他任何强大的驱动程序之前，都将其价值考虑到。

Be aware that this principle cuts both ways

请注意，这一原则都削减了两种方式

It is very unlikely that the price of Bitcoin will trend upward forever solely on the basis of most holders having an unrealized profit this month. There will probably be some macroeconomic events that are able to crack the market's bullish sentiment, causing some investors to sell. In other words, Bitcoin is destined to experience a crash or a sharp fall at some point in the future, and it is very likely that the decline will be so sharp that many investors sell their holdings at a loss and swear off cryptocurrencies altogether.

比特币的价格不太可能仅在本月获得未实现利润的大多数持有人的基础上永远向上趋势。可能会有一些宏观经济事件能够破解市场的看涨情绪，从而导致一些投资者出售。换句话说，比特币注定要在未来的某个时候经历撞车事故或急剧下降，而且很可能下降会如此急剧，以至于许多投资者亏本出售其持股并完全发誓要完全宣誓。

That doesn't detract from the long-term thesis for buying and holding Bitcoin, but it's a fact of life that assets go through cycles of being heavily favored and disfavored.

这并不损害购买和持有比特币的长期论文，但这是生活的事实，资产经历了受到重视和不利的周期。

The way to deal with this reality is to have a plan for investing during both the asset's good times and also its hard times. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) with small amounts of capital when the market is practically euphoric about Bitcoin, like now, is a way to make sure you won't get wiped out to the point of feeling bad if there's a decline. At the same time, keeping some of your capital in reserve to buy the dips in the coin's price is also a good idea because doing so will enable you to capture upside when other investors are panicking.

处理这一现实的方法是制定一项计划在资产的好时期和艰难时期进行投资。当市场对比特币几乎欣喜时，少量资本的美元平均值（DCA）像现在一样欣喜若狂，这是确保您不会被抹去的一种方式，如果下降，则不会感到难过。同时，将您的一些资本保留在硬币价格上购买蘸酱也是一个好主意，因为这样做可以使您在其他投资者感到恐慌时捕获上升空间。

The core pillar of this two-handed strategy is to hold your coins for the long term, which in this case means at least four years or so, but preferably closer to 40 years or so. The longer you can diligently accumulate Bitcoin, the more gain you will get from its inherent and ever-escalating scarcity, as well as medium-term drivers like institutional and sovereign adoption. Detach your investing habits from your emotions, and it won't matter how many other investors are holding Bitcoin at a gain or a loss -- you will be taking advantage of its value-generating capabilities all the while, regardless.

这种双手策略的核心支柱是长期持有您的硬币，在这种情况下，这意味着至少四年左右，但最好接近40年左右。您可以努力积累比特币的时间越长，您就会从固有且越来越大的稀缺性中获得的收益越多，以及制度和主权采用等中期驱动因素。将您的投资习惯从情绪中脱颖而出，而其他投资者持有比特币的收益或损失都无关紧要 - 无论如何，您都会利用其价值生成的能力。