比特币（BTC）继续徘徊在心理关键$ 100,00级别以下

比特币的当前价格动作表明了经典的合并阶段。在本月早些时候简要测试了100,000美元的天花板之后，价格仍然存在。

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to hover below the psychologically key $105,000 level, fueling speculation that a massive breakout—or a prolonged stall—could be just around the corner.

比特币（BTC）继续徘徊在心理关键$ 105,000的水平以下，这加剧了人们的猜测，即大规模的突破（或长时间的失速）可能会在拐角处。

Despite surging interest from institutions and growing anticipation of a “supercycle,” Bitcoin’s upward momentum has slowed, with consolidation tightening and investor sentiment appearing split.

尽管机构引起了人们的兴趣，并且对“超级循环”的预期日益增加，但比特币的上升势头却放缓了，巩固的巩固和投资者的情绪显得分裂。

BTC in Holding Pattern: Why $105K Matters

BTC保持模式：为什么$ 105K很重要

Bitcoin’s current price action suggests a classic consolidation phase. After briefly testing the $105,000 ceiling earlier this month, the price has remained range-bound.

比特币的当前价格动作表明了经典的合并阶段。在本月早些时候简要测试了105,000美元的天花板之后，价格仍然存在。

Technical analysts attribute this stall to a lack of strong bullish volume and resistance near all-time highs.

技术分析师将此摊位归因于缺乏有史以来高高的强大看涨量和阻力。

This sideways trading comes despite an overall bullish backdrop. BlackRock, Fidelity, and other asset managers continue to pour into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and Bitcoin’s hash rate and network activity remain near record highs.

尽管总体看涨背景，但这种侧向交易仍在进行。 BlackRock，Fidelity和其他资产经理继续涌入现货比特币ETF，比特币的哈希速率和网络活动仍然接近创纪录的高点。

What’s Fueling Speculation of a Bitcoin Supercycle?

比特币超级循环的猜测是什么？

Some analysts believe Bitcoin could be on the verge of a rare “supercycle”—a term referring to a prolonged and aggressive price surge, typically driven by macroeconomic shifts and broad institutional adoption.

一些分析人士认为，比特币可能处于罕见的“超级循环”的边缘，这个术语指的是长时间和积极进取的价格上涨，通常是由宏观经济转变和广泛的机构采用驱动的。

According to Bitcoin Magazine’s market analysis, these conditions, paired with supply-side constraints, could serve as a perfect storm for a historic rally.

根据比特币杂志的市场分析，这些条件与供应方约束配对，可以成为历史性集会的完美风暴。

Factors Supporting the Supercycle Thesis:

支持超循环论文的因素：

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What’s Holding BTC Back?

是什么把BTC退回了？

While many bulls believe a breakout is inevitable, bears argue that the lack of retail enthusiasm is a red flag. According to data from Cointelegraph, Google search trends for “Bitcoin” remain flat, indicating that mainstream investor participation hasn't yet returned in full force.

尽管许多公牛认为突破是不可避免的，但贝尔斯认为，缺乏零售热情是一个危险信号。根据CoIntelegraph的数据，“比特币”的Google搜索趋势仍然平坦，这表明主流投资者的参与尚未全力以赴。

Near-Term Headwinds:

近期逆风：

What Happens Next?

接下来会发生什么？

Market watchers are split. Some expect a sharp rally once Bitcoin breaks convincingly above $105K, potentially targeting $120K–$135K levels in the short term.

市场观察者分裂。有些人预计一旦比特币令人信服地超过$ 105K，有一个急剧的拉力赛，可能会以$ 120K - 13.5万美元的水平为目标。

Others warn that if BTC fails to break out soon, it could retrace back to $95K or lower, testing investor conviction.

其他人则警告说，如果BTC未能尽快爆发，它可能会追溯到95,000美元或更低，从而测试投资者的定罪。

For now, Bitcoin traders remain in wait-and-see mode. With a narrowing price range, historically low volatility, and rising anticipation, the stage is set for a significant move—up or down.

目前，比特币交易者仍处于饮食模式。由于价格范围狭窄，历史上的波动率低以及预期的上升，该阶段旨在采取重大行动，或下降。