历史模式表明，比特币 (BTC) 牛市预计将于 2024 年第三季度开始

CryptoQuant 分析师根据链上数据预测，比特币牛市将于 2024 年第三季度开始。 2016 年和 2020 年的历史趋势显示相似的盈利能力

CryptoQuant's analysis reveals a unique pattern in Bitcoin's price movements that occurs only once within a bull cycle. This indicator, miners' profitability, has shown to be a valuable tool in predicting the end of correction periods within bull markets.

CryptoQuant 的分析揭示了比特币价格变动的独特模式，该模式在牛市周期内仅出现一次。该指标（即矿商盈利能力）已被证明是预测牛市调整期结束的宝贵工具。

According to CryptoQuant's analysis, an opportunity arises once within a bull cycle. This indicator fell significantly during the bull cycles in 2016 and 2020, which were followed by the beginnings of Bitcoin's strong price increases. Currently, similar movements have been detected.

根据 CryptoQuant 的分析，牛市周期内就会出现一次机会。该指标在 2016 年和 2020 年的牛市周期中大幅下降，随后比特币价格开始强劲上涨。目前，已检测到类似的动作。

This indicator, highlighted by Crypto Dan (@DanCoinInvestor), is typically used to identify the bottom of a bear market; however, it also proves useful for predicting the end of correction periods within bull markets.

Crypto Dan (@DanCoinInvestor) 强调的该指标通常用于识别熊市的底部；然而，它对于预测牛市调整期的结束也很有用。

Highlighting the instances where miners' profitability drops sharply within a bull cycle, leading to a significant price increase in Bitcoin, the data shows that in both 2016 and 2020, this indicator fell substantially, followed by the start of Bitcoin’s powerful upward movement.

数据显示，在牛市周期内，矿商盈利能力大幅下降，导致比特币价格大幅上涨，数据显示，在2016年和2020年，该指标均大幅下降，随后比特币开始强劲上涨。

Now, zooming out to get a better view of the complete bull cycles, we can see a pattern emerging. This indicator also showed signs of reaching its end during the bull cycles in 2016 and 2020.

现在，缩小范围以更好地了解整个牛市周期，我们可以看到一种正在出现的模式。该指标在2016年和2020年的牛市周期中也显示出即将结束的迹象。

Although pinpointing the exact end of the adjustment period is difficult, the data suggests that it is not far away. The current trend indicates that we may witness the beginning of a new bull rally within Q3 of 2024.

尽管确定调整期的确切结束时间很困难，但数据表明，距离结束并不遥远。目前的趋势表明，我们可能会在 2024 年第三季度见证新一轮牛市的开始。

In other news, blockchain analytical platform Santiment recently reported on the decreasing number of non-empty Bitcoin wallets, which now stand at 54.09 million. Since June 15, there has been a net decrease of 566,000 wallets.

其他新闻方面，区块链分析平台 Santiment 最近报告称，非空比特币钱包数量正在减少，目前为 5409 万个。自6月15日以来，钱包净减少56.6万个。

According to Santiment, this recent decline is a positive sign for patient bulls. This decrease in wallets is largely due to self-liquidation by impatient non-believers, which usually bodes well for FUD-driven market bottoms, like the one we saw in January.

Santiment 认为，最近的下跌对于耐心的多头来说是一个积极的信号。钱包的减少主要是由于不耐烦的非信徒的自我清算，这通常预示着 FUD 驱动的市场触底，就像我们在一月份看到的那样。

Non-empty Bitcoin wallets on the network have dropped by 566,000 since June 15, now at 54.09M. This period of self-liquidation is a sign of FUD-causing market bottoms, like the one we saw in January. Could this be the final sweep before a bull rally? ? pic.twitter.com/h2jK9YvCf9

自6月15日以来，网络上的非空比特币钱包已减少56.6万个，目前为5409万个。这段自我清算时期是 FUD 导致市场触底的迹象，就像我们在一月份看到的那样。这可能是牛市反弹之前的最后一次横扫吗？ ? pic.twitter.com/h2jK9YvCf9

Furthermore, Santiment reports that both the 30-day and 365-day Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicators are currently in negative territory. This signals a buying opportunity, as it shows that current purchases are being made when other traders are experiencing losses. Notably, the last time both MVRP ratios were negative, investors who bought Bitcoin at the time saw a 132% return.

此外，Santiment 报告称，30 天和 365 天比特币市场价值与已实现价值 (MVRV) 指标目前均处于负值区域。这标志着一个买入机会，因为它表明当前的买入是在其他交易者遭受损失时进行的。值得注意的是，上一次 MVRP 比率均为负值时，当时购买比特币的投资者获得了 132% 的回报。

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $57,249, reflecting a surge of 0.4% in the last 24 hours.

截至目前，比特币交易价格为 57,249 美元，过去 24 小时内上涨 0.4%。