比特币（BTC）为美国经济数据做好准备：看点

由于美国日历上安排了各种重要的宏观经济事件，比特币（BTC）将面临重要的一周。这些数据发布对加密货币市场的影响在经历了 2023 年下半年影响力减弱的时期后，已经重新变得重要起来。

Several key macroeconomic events are lined up on the US calendar this week, which could have a significant impact on Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market.

本周美国日历上将出现几项关键的宏观经济事件，这可能会对比特币（BTC）和更广泛的加密市场产生重大影响。

After a period of diminishing influence in the second half of 2023, the impact of these data releases on the crypto market has regained importance.

在经历了 2023 年下半年影响力减弱的一段时期后，这些数据发布对加密货币市场的影响重新变得重要。

Crypto traders and investors should prepare for potential volatility as the week starts.

加密货币交易者和投资者应在本周开始时为潜在的波动做好准备。

Here’s a closer look at the events to watch:

以下是值得关注的事件的详细介绍：

1. Trumps Interview With Musk

1. 特朗普对马斯克的采访

On Monday evening, August 12, former US President Donald Trump will engage in an interview with Elon Musk via X spaces at 8 p.m. ET.

8 月 12 日星期一晚上，美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 将于美国东部时间晚上 8 点通过 X Spaces 接受埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 的采访。

The interview is expected to be unscripted and open to all topics, with Musk inviting everyone to submit questions they would like to see discussed.

此次采访预计将是无脚本的，并且对所有主题开放，马斯克邀请每个人提交他们希望讨论的问题。

Musk is pro-Trump, with reports that the CEO of X created a Super PAC focused on supporting candidates who favor a meritocracy and personal freedom.

马斯克是特朗普的支持者，有报道称，X 的首席执行官创建了一个超级政治行动委员会，重点支持支持精英管理和个人自由的候选人。

“Am going to do some system scaling tests tonight & tomorrow in advance of the conversation with Donald Trump,” Musk said on Sunday.

“在与唐纳德·特朗普对话之前，今晚和明天我将进行一些系统扩展测试，”马斯克周日表示。

This comment is made given the platform’s spotty performance last year during an interview with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

这一评论是鉴于该平台去年在接受佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯采访时表现参差不齐而做出的。

Indeed, this interview could have implications for Bitcoin and crypto after Trump’s bullish assertions during the Nashville conference.

事实上，在特朗普在纳什维尔会议期间发表看涨言论后，这次采访可能会对比特币和加密货币产生影响。

Both Trump and Musk are pro-crypto, which means the subject will likely spring up in the interview.

特朗普和马斯克都是加密货币支持者，这意味着这个话题很可能会在采访中出现。

2. Core PPI (Wholesale Inflation)

2.核心PPI（批发通胀）

On Tuesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will report July’s Core Producer Price Index (PPI).

周二，美国劳工统计局 (BLS) 将公布 7 月份核心生产者价格指数 (PPI)。

This data determines price increases at the producer level and influences financial markets by measuring inflation at the wholesale level.

这些数据决定了生产者层面的价格上涨，并通过衡量批发层面的通胀来影响金融市场。

Specifically, increases in PPI indicate increases in production costs. These increases could lead to growing energy and hardware costs requisite for mining and processing cryptocurrencies.

具体来说，PPI的上升表明生产成本的上升。这些增加可能会导致采矿和处理加密货币所需的能源和硬件成本不断增加。

A higher core PPI on August 13 could negatively affect Bitcoin and crypto.

8 月 13 日较高的核心 PPI 可能会对比特币和加密货币产生负面影响。

Economists forecast a 2.2% year-over-year increase, four-tenths of a percentage point less than in June.

经济学家预测同比增长 2.2%，比 6 月份下降了十分之四个百分点。

The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen rising 2.7%, compared with 3% previously.

排除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，核心 PPI 预计将上涨 2.7%，而此前为 3%。

3. US CPI

3. 美国消费者物价指数

The BLS is also scheduled to release the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) this week.

美国劳工统计局还计划于本周发布 7 月份消费者价格指数 (CPI)。

This data measures the price increases in consumer goods and services.

该数据衡量消费品和服务的价格上涨情况。

While the consensus call is for the CPI to increase 2.9% year over year, the core CPI is expected to rise by 3.2%, with both estimates being one-tenth of a percentage point less than the June figures.

虽然市场普遍认为 CPI 同比上涨 2.9%，但核心 CPI 预计上涨 3.2%，两项预测均较 6 月数据低十分之一个百分点。

An increase in the CPI may decrease consumers’ purchasing power. This could negatively affect Bitcoin and crypto markets because consumers may tend to spend less when purchasing power decreases.

CPI的上升可能会降低消费者的购买力。这可能会对比特币和加密货币市场产生负面影响，因为当购买力下降时，消费者可能会倾向于减少支出。

From another perspective, the decreased purchasing power of fiat currencies could lead to more people turning to alternative assets like crypto.

从另一个角度来看，法定货币购买力的下降可能会导致更多的人转向加密货币等替代资产。

Here, they see it as a means to protect their wealth from inflation.

在这里，他们将其视为保护财富免受通货膨胀影响的一种手段。

In this scenario, an increase in inflation, as indicated by the CPI, would potentially drive up the demand for Bitcoin and crypto in general, ultimately driving up their prices.

在这种情况下，消费者物价指数（CPI）所表明的通胀上升可能会推高对比特币和加密货币的总体需求，最终推高其价格。

4. Initial Jobs Claims

4. 最初的工作要求

The Census Bureau will report on the US jobs claims on Thursday, detailing July’s retail and food services sales data.

人口普查局将于周四公布美国初请就业人数，详细介绍 7 月份的零售和食品服务销售数据。

Economists predict a 0.3% month-over-month increase relative to a flat reading in June.

经济学家预测，与 6 月份持平的数据相比，环比增长 0.3%。

Retail sales could gain 0.1% minus the sale of autos, which is three-tenths of a percentage point less than previously.

扣除汽车销售后，零售额可能增长 0.1%，比之前下降了十分之三个百分点。

Amid recession fears that have kept investors spooked recently, the market hopes to see continued resilience in consumer spending.

最近，由于对经济衰退的担忧让投资者感到不安，市场希望看到消费者支出继续保持弹性。

“Bitcoin and Ethereum tend to underperform during periods that resemble or approach a recession in the United States.

“在美国类似或接近经济衰退的时期，比特币和以太坊往往表现不佳。

Additionally, investors are reducing their positions as prices have fallen below the average entry point for ETF investors, which is approximately $60,000,” Markus Thielen, Founder and CEO at 10x Research, recently told BeInCrypto.

此外，由于价格已跌破 ETF 投资者的平均入场点（约 60,000 美元），投资者正在减少头寸。”10x Research 创始人兼首席执行官 Markus Thielen 最近告诉 BeInCrypto。

5. Consumer Sentiment Survey

5. 消费者信心调查

Finally, markets will brace for the University of Michigan’s August consumer Sentiment survey, which will be released on Friday.

最后，市场将为周五公布的密歇根大学八月份消费者信心调查做好准备。

This data reflects the gap between the US economy’s continued strength and how households feel about their financial situation.

该数据反映了美国经济的持续强劲与家庭对其财务状况的感受之间的差距。

In July, consumers’ expectations of the year ahead inflation was 2.9%, which signified a near a 3-and-a-half-year low.

7月份，消费者对未来一年通胀的预期为2.9%，接近三年半低点。

Expectations for the August 16 release are for a 67.5 reading, about one point higher than previously.

8 月 16 日发布的预期值为 67.5，比之前高出约 1 个百分点。

Noteworthy, consumer sentiment is much more sensitive to inflation, while consumer confidence is more sensitive to the labor market.

值得注意的是，消费者情绪对通胀更为敏感，而消费者信心对劳动力市场更为敏感。

If the data shows consumers still struggle with inflation and high interest rates while worrying more about their jobs, crypto could react differently.

如果数据显示消费者仍在与通货膨胀和高利率作斗争，同时更多地担心自己的工作，那么加密货币可能会做出不同的反应。