研究显示，今年大多数空投代币都已经崩溃

加密货币做市商 Keyrock 的一项新研究显示，今年与空投一起推出的代币中有 88% 的价格下跌，其中大多数在 15 天内崩盘。

A new study from crypto market maker Keyrock has found that 88% of tokens launched alongside airdrops this year have declined in price, with most crashing within 15 days.

加密货币做市商 Keyrock 的一项新研究发现，今年与空投一起推出的代币中有 88% 价格下跌，其中大多数在 15 天内崩盘。

“The majority of price movement occurs in the earliest days following the airdrop,” Keyrock said in its report. “After three months, few tokens manage to return a positive result, with only a handful bucking this trend.”

Keyrock 在报告中表示：“大部分价格变动发生在空投后的最初几天。” “三个月后，很少有代币能够返回积极的结果，只有少数代币逆势而行。”

Airdrops are giveaways of valuable tokens distributed to early or frequent users of a DeFi protocol.

空投是分发给 DeFi 协议的早期或频繁用户的有价值代币的赠品。

The phenomenon started as a way to reward users who contributed to a protocol’s early success. In recent years, they’re more often used as a way to drum up interest in a protocol and attract users.

这种现象最初是为了奖励为协议早期成功做出贡献的用户的一种方式。近年来，它们更常被用作激发对协议的兴趣并吸引用户的一种方式。

Excitement surrounding airdrops reached a fever pitch in early 2024 as Bitcoin raced to an all-time high following the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Most other cryptocurrencies went up in price too.

2024 年初，随着现货比特币交易所交易基金的推出，比特币价格飙升至历史新高，围绕空投的兴奋达到了狂热的程度。大多数其他加密货币的价格也上涨了。

Despite the excitement, many airdropped tokens this year have been marred by poor price performance.

尽管令人兴奋，但今年许多空投代币的价格表现不佳。

There have, however, been pockets of success.

然而，也取得了一些成功。

What makes a successful airdrop?

是什么让空投成功？

Often the assumption is that the more of a token a projects airdrops, the worse it will perform on the open market.

通常的假设是，一个项目空投的代币越多，它在公开市场上的表现就越差。

It’s not hard to understand why. Airdrops can often reward lucky users with thousands of dollars of tokens. Many rush to cash out the windfall.

原因并不难理解。空投通常可以奖励幸运用户数千美元的代币。许多人急于兑现这笔意外之财。

Add to that so-called Sybil attackers — buccaneering DeFi players who attempt to cash in by qualifying for airdrops multiple times — and the number of tokens sold can be substantial.

再加上所谓的 Sybil 攻击者（那些试图通过多次获得空投资格来获利的海盗式 DeFi 玩家），出售的代币数量可能会相当可观。

But this accepted wisdom isn’t borne out in the data.

但这种公认的观点并没有在数据中得到证实。

“Contrary to popular belief, larger airdrops don’t always lead to dumps,” Keyrock said. “A token with 70% airdrop allocation saw positive gains, highlighting that FDV management is more important.”

“与普遍看法相反，更大的空投并不总是会导致垃圾倾销，”基罗克说。 “具有 70% 空投分配的代币取得了积极的收益，凸显了 FDV 管理更为重要。”

FDV, or fully diluted valuation, represents the total market value of a cryptocurrency if all of its possible tokens were in circulation, including tokens yet to be unlocked or distributed.

FDV，或完全稀释估值，代表一种加密货币的总市场价值，如果它的所有可能的代币都在流通，包括尚未解锁或分发的代币。

Keyrock identifies two reasons airdrops of tokens with high FDVs have fallen flat.

Keyrock 指出了 FDV 高的代币空投停滞不前的两个原因。

Projects with inflated FDVs often struggle to sustain momentum as the perceived upside becomes limited. Additionally, tokens with large FDVs often lack the liquidity to support those valuations.

由于预期上涨空间有限，FDV 膨胀的项目往往难以维持势头。此外，具有大量 FDV 的代币通常缺乏流动性来支持这些估值。

“Without sufficient liquidity, prices become highly sensitive to sell pressure,” Keyrock said.

“如果没有足够的流动性，价格就会对抛售压力高度敏感，”基罗克说。

Many projects have been criticised for launching tokens at inflated FDVs.

许多项目因以虚高的 FDV 发行代币而受到批评。

“Only short-term scalpers who see a low circulating supply as an opportunity for quick gains are buying these,” Marc Weinstein, a partner at crypto investment firm Mechanism Capital, previously told DL News.

加密货币投资公司 Mechanism Capital 的合伙人 Marc Weinstein 此前对 DL News 表示：“只有将低流通量视为快速获利机会的短期黄牛才会购买这些货币。”

Winners and losers

赢家和输家

Keyrock’s study also identified the most and least successful airdrops.

Keyrock 的研究还确定了最成功和最不成功的空投。

Solana trading platform Drift came out on top. Key to its success, Keyrock said, was its modest launch value, and fair and thoughtful distribution. The DRIFT token currently trades at almost three times its launch value.

Solana 交易平台 Drift 名列前茅。 Keyrock 表示，其成功的关键在于其适度的发行价值以及公平和周到的发行。 DRIFT 代币目前的交易价格几乎是其发行价值的三倍。

Other Solana-based airdrops also performed well.

其他基于 Solana 的空投也表现良好。

Solana led in 2024 as the top chain for airdrops, even more so when adjusting for market conditions, Keyrock said, highlighting tokens like WEN and JUP as successes.

Keyrock 表示，Solana 在 2024 年成为空投的顶级链，在根据市场条件进行调整时更是如此，并强调 WEN 和 JUP 等代币是成功的。

At the other extreme, ZkLend, a lending protocol and Ethereum layer 2 Starknet, was the worst performer per Keyrock’s analysis. Its ZEND token is down 95% from its launch price.

在另一个极端，根据 Keyrock 的分析，ZkLend（一种借贷协议和以太坊第 2 层 Starknet）是表现最差的。其 ZEND 代币较发行价下跌 95%。

Keyrock blamed the ZkLend token’s poor performance on its high launch value and the project’s failure to build traction around its brand.

Keyrock 将 ZkLend 代币的糟糕表现归咎于其高发行价值以及该项目未能围绕其品牌建立吸引力。

“ZkLend’s experience is a powerful reminder that while hype and airdrops can bring in users, they don’t inherently create value, utility, or sustainable communities,” Keyrock said.

“ZkLend 的经历有力地提醒我们，虽然炒作和空投可以吸引用户，但它们本身并不能创造价值、效用或可持续社区，”Keyrock 说。

But who doesn’t like free tokens?

但谁不喜欢免费代币呢？