Sygnia首席執行官發出警報：比特幣被高估了嗎？

Sygnia首席執行官Magda Wierzycka告誡不要過多的比特幣ETF投資，認為比特幣被高估了。加密超級循環結束還是只是呼吸？

Sygnia CEO Sounds the Alarm: Is Bitcoin Overvalued?

Sygnia首席執行官發出警報：比特幣被高估了嗎？

The crypto world is buzzing, but Sygnia CEO Magda Wierzycka is urging caution, particularly regarding Bitcoin. She's calling Bitcoin overvalued and advising investors to limit their exposure. Is she right, or is this just another bump in the volatile road to crypto dominance?

加密世界嗡嗡作響，但是Sygnia首席執行官Magda Wierzycka敦促謹慎，尤其是關於比特幣。她稱比特幣被高估，並建議投資者限制其曝光率。她是對的，還是這只是加密統治的動蕩之路的另一道顛簸？

Sygnia's Stance: Bitcoin, Proceed with Caution

Sygnia的立場：比特幣，謹慎行事

Wierzycka, head of the South African asset management firm Sygnia Ltd., isn't pulling any punches. She's advising investors to keep their Bitcoin holdings to a maximum of 5% of their portfolios. Sygnia actively intervenes when clients try to allocate too much capital to their Bitcoin fund, which launched in June. The concern? Extreme market volatility, especially in emerging markets like South Africa, where individual savings can be easily wiped out.

南非資產管理公司Sygnia Ltd.負責人Wierzycka並沒有引起任何努力。她建議投資者將其比特幣持有量保持在其投資組合的最多5％。 Sygnia會積極介紹客戶試圖將過多的資本分配給6月成立的比特幣基金。擔心？極端的市場波動，尤其是在像南非這樣的新興市場中，很容易消除個人儲蓄。

Diversification is the name of the game, according to Wierzycka. She emphasizes the need for caution in crypto investments, warning against unrealistic promises. While acknowledging Bitcoin's potential as a long-term asset, she stresses the importance of investor safety and risk management.

根據Wierzycka的說法，多元化是遊戲的名稱。她強調需要在加密投資中謹慎，並警告不現實的承諾。在承認比特幣作為長期資產的潛力時，她強調了投資者安全和風險管理的重要性。

Is the Bitcoin Supercycle Ending?

比特幣超級循環結束了嗎？

While Sygnia is preaching caution, the broader market is a mixed bag. Bitcoin's price has seen fluctuations, dropping 4.9% in a week and 1.4% in the last 24 hours (as of late September) despite a surge in trading volume. Remember when Bitcoin hit a low of $16,000 in late 2022 and then soared to over $115,000 by early September? Some analysts believe the party's almost over.

雖然Sygnia謹慎行事，但更廣闊的市場是一個混合的袋子。儘管交易量激增，但比特幣的價格波動波動，一周內下降了4.9％，在過去24小時內（截至9月下旬）下跌了1.4％（截至9月下旬）。還記得比特幣在2022年末達到16,000美元的低價，然後在9月初飆升至115,000美元以上？一些分析師認為該黨幾乎結束了。

Crypto analyst Jelle predicts the Bitcoin supercycle is nearing its end, estimating only about 30 days left. His reasoning? Past cycles peaked roughly 1,064 days after the bottom. If his prediction holds, Bitcoin might still jump another 20% before a potential downturn.

加密分析師Jelle預測，比特幣超級循環即將結束，僅估計還剩30天。他的理由？底部後，過去的周期大約達到1,064天。如果他的預測成立，比特幣可能在潛在的衰退潛在的情況下仍會再躍升20％。

The Bullish Counter-Argument

看漲的反駁

However, not everyone agrees. Bernstein analysts believe the bull run could continue until 2027, fueled by favorable U.S. policies. They foresee Bitcoin reaching $150,000–$200,000, with altcoins like Ethereum and Solana driving the next phase. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. has also injected significant capital into the market, further supporting a bullish outlook.

但是，並不是每個人都同意。伯恩斯坦分析師認為，在美國有利政策的推動下，公牛的運行可能會持續到2027年。他們預見到比特幣達到150,000美元至20萬美元，山寨幣（例如以太坊和索拉納）駕駛下一階段。美國的現貨比特幣ETF的批准還向市場注入了大量資金，進一步支持了看漲的前景。

My Take: A Measured Approach is Key

我的看法：測量方法是關鍵

So, is Bitcoin overvalued? It depends on who you ask. Sygnia's CEO is taking a conservative stance, prioritizing risk management. Other analysts see continued growth potential. The truth likely lies somewhere in between. Given the inherent volatility of crypto, a measured approach is crucial. Diversify your portfolio, do your own research, and don't invest more than you can afford to lose. Sygnia's 5% suggestion seems reasonable considering the risk profile of Bitcoin.

那麼，比特幣被高估了嗎？這取決於您問誰。 Sygnia的首席執行官正在採取保守的立場，優先考慮風險管理。其他分析師看到持續的增長潛力。事實很可能在介於兩者之間。鑑於加密的固有波動性，測量方法至關重要。多樣化投資組合，進行自己的研究，並且投資不超過您負擔得起的損失。考慮到比特幣的風險特徵，Sygnia的5％建議似乎是合理的。

Final Thoughts: Buckle Up!

最終想法：搭扣！

Whether you believe the supercycle is ending or just taking a breather, one thing's for sure: Bitcoin's journey is far from over. The market will continue to evolve, and navigating it requires a blend of caution and optimism. So, buckle up, stay informed, and maybe keep that Bitcoin allocation under 5% – just in case!

無論您認為超級循環即將結束還是只是喘口氣，都可以肯定的是：比特幣的旅程還遠遠沒有結束。市場將繼續發展，並需要謹慎和樂觀。因此，扣緊，保持知識，並可能將比特幣分配在5％以下 - 以防萬一！