SEC的Spot XRP ETF決定可能會點燃針對3.50美元的重大集會

SEC對位置XRP ETF的決定可能會激發重大集會。目前的22億美元XRP期貨暗示了機構投資者的需求不斷增長。

The price of XRP has stalled despite two major milestones in 2024.

儘管2024年有兩個主要里程碑，但XRP的價格仍停滯不前。

The two most bullish events ever imagined by XRP (XRP) advocates happened in 2025, but the token continues to underperform the cryptocurrency market. On March 6, XRP was listed as a candidate for the United States’ “Digital Asset Reserve,” and Ripple Labs settled a multi-year-long complaint with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on May 8.

XRP（XRP）倡導者想像的有史以來最看漲的事件發生在2025年，但令牌繼續表現不足。 3月6日，XRP被列為美國“數字資產儲備”的候選人，Ripple Labs於5月8日在美國證券和交易委員會中解決了多年的投訴。

However, XRP fell 6% in the three months leading up to May 22, while overall crypto market capitalization rose 10%. Traders remain hopeful for a 45% rally to $3.50, with derivatives metrics signaling rising confidence.

但是，XRP在5月22日之前的三個月中下跌了6％，而總體加密市值增長了10％。貿易商仍然希望45％的集會至3.50美元，衍生品指標信號提高了信心。

Key takeaways:

關鍵要點：

The SEC’s decision on a spot XRP ETF could ignite a significant rally.

SEC對位置XRP ETF的決定可能會激發重大集會。

The current $2.2 billion in XRP futures hints at growing institutional investor demand.

目前的22億美元XRP期貨暗示了機構投資者的需求不斷增長。

Aggregate open interest on major exchanges reached 923 million XRP on May 22, showcasing a 31% surge from two weeks prior.

5月22日，主要交易所的總開放利息達到9.23億XRP，比兩週前的31％激增。

The $2.2 billion position in futures markets signals traders’ interest, but it is not necessarily bullish, as those instruments can be used to speculate on the XRP price downside.

期貨市場上的22億美元頭寸表示交易者的利息，但不一定是看好的，因為這些工具可用於推測XRP價格下跌。

Some traders argue that the increased demand for leveraged XRP positions indicates growing institutional interest, especially as multiple issuers filed for a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the US. However, the final decision by the US SEC should be made in October.

一些交易者認為，對槓桿XRP頭寸的需求增加表明機構利益的增長，尤其是當多個發行人在美國申請了XRP交易所交易基金（ETF）上市時。但是，美國SEC的最終決定應在10月做出。

Excessive demand for bullish leveraged XRP causes a positive funding rate, meaning longs (buyers) are the ones paying the carry cost.

對看漲槓桿XRP的過度需求會導致籌款率，這意味著渴望（買家）是支付攜帶成本的籌款率。

As cryptocurrency traders are generally optimistic, a 7% to 14% annualized funding rate is expected in neutral markets, while periods of FOMO can push the indicator above 50%.

由於加密貨幣交易者通常是樂觀的，因此中立市場預計將有7％至14％的年度資金率，而FOMO期間可以將指標推向50％以上。

The annualized funding rate reached 19% on May 22, nearing the highest levels in six months.

5月22日，年度資金率達到19％，在六個月內接近最高水平。

Still, the current optimism level is nowhere near the 100% annualized funding rate from Dec. 4, 2024, which followed an impressive 7-day rally to $2.90 from $1.33. Far from being bearish, the current level leaves room for bullish positioning on XRP futures markets.

儘管如此，目前的樂觀水平遠遠沒有達到2024年12月4日的100％年度資金率，此後為期7天的集會從1.33美元開始，這是令人印象深刻的7天集會至2.90美元。目前的水平遠非看跌，留出了在XRP期貨市場上的看漲空間。

Which senators invest in crypto? 11 lawmakers have blockchain-related investments

哪個參議員投資加密？ 11名議員有與區塊鏈相關的投資

Favorable regulation opens the door for new partnerships and acquisitions

有利的法規為新的伙伴關係和收購打開了大門

Part of the limited XRP price upside can be explained by the multiple rejections of US Senator Cynthia Lummis, Chair of the US Congress Digital Assets Subcommittee, to meet Ripple representatives.

有限的XRP價格上漲空間的一部分可以通過美國國會數字資產小組委員會主席辛西婭·盧米斯（Cynthia Lummis）的多次拒絕來解釋，以與Ripple代表會面。

Despite settling with the SEC in May, Ripple Labs is still being sued by the SEC in another case, which Lummis is following closely.

儘管在5月與SEC定居，但Rumple Labs仍被SEC起訴另一種情況，Lummis正在密切關注。

However, House Agriculture Committee Chair Scott Franklin invited Brad Garlinghouse to speak at an upcoming event. Chairs in both the House and Senate are planning to cooperate on legislation to regulate the cryptocurrency industry in 2024.

但是，眾議院農業委員會主席斯科特·富蘭克林（Scott Franklin）邀請布拉德·加林豪斯（Brad Garlinghouse）在即將舉行的活動中發言。眾議院和參議院的椅子都計劃在2024年進行立法合作，以規範加密貨幣行業。

Garlinghouse urged Lummis to “reconsider and be a leader for ALL of crypto,” and discuss “how to make the US the crypto capital of the world.”

Garlinghouse敦促Lummis“重新考慮並成為所有加密貨幣的領導者”，並討論“如何使美國成為世界的加密首都”。

There is nothing stopping XRP from hitting $3.50 or even higher, as Ripple Labs is no longer facing direct threats from regulators, which paves the way for partnerships and acquisitions.

沒有什麼可以阻止XRP達到3.50美元甚至更高的價格，因為Ripple Labs不再面臨監管機構的直接威脅，這為合夥企業和收購鋪平了道路。

Historically, XRP has reacted very positively following those announcements, and the $2.2 billion futures open interest could help catapult XRP price above the current $3.25 all-time high.

從歷史上看，XRP在這些公告之後做出了非常積極的反應，22億美元的期貨開放興趣可以幫助彈射XRP價格高於當前3.25美元的歷史最高高價。