短期預測：隨著比特幣衝向 10 萬美元里程碑，川普承諾讓加密貨幣擺脫監管束縛

雖然股市正在緩慢地走向適度的近期回報，但比特幣卻剛剛度過了今年最好的月份之一，11 月飆升了近 40%。

Bitcoin enjoyed a stellar month of November, surging nearly 40 percent as Donald Trump's return to the US presidency bodes well for the crypto world.

唐納德·川普 (Donald Trump) 重返美國總統寶座，比特幣在 11 月表現出色，飆升近 40%，這對加密世界來說是個好兆頭。

Here's the kicker: Trump has a plan to federalize the 208,109 Bitcoins currently in federal custody, turning them into a strategic national Bitcoin stockpile. That's over 1 percent of the world's Bitcoin supply, currently valued at a jaw-dropping $20 billion.

關鍵在於：川普計畫將目前聯邦監管的 208,109 枚比特幣聯邦化，將它們轉變為國家戰略比特幣儲備。這佔全球比特幣供應量的 1% 以上，目前比特幣價值高達 200 億美元，令人瞠目結舌。

On the campaign trail, he's been positioning himself as the crypto industry's saviour, promising to bring it out of the shadows of unclear regulations and the SEC's heavy-handed enforcement antics under Chair Gary Gensler.

在競選過程中，他一直將自己定位為加密貨幣行業的救世主，承諾將其帶出監管不明確和美國證券交易委員會主席加里·詹斯勒(Gary Gensler)領導下的嚴厲執法行為的陰影。

Crypto pundits are popping champagne bottles, predicting Bitcoin will soon hit the $100,000 milestone. Riding these tailwinds, Jefferies' Christopher Wood's global portfolio is easing up with a 10 percent allocation to Bitcoin ETFs.

加密貨幣專家紛紛開香檳，預測比特幣很快就會達到 10 萬美元的里程碑。乘著這些順風車，傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的克里斯托弗伍德 (Christopher Wood) 的全球投資組合正在放鬆，將 10% 的配置分配給比特幣 ETF。

His advice? Not to try and trade these positions, most particularly in the pension fund portfolio. Still, for those with a more tactical focus, Wood suggests cashing in some Bitcoins around the $150,000 mark since his base case is that the crypto will rally three times in this post-halving cycle since the trend has been for the capital gains on holding it to more than halve following each halving cycle. A halving cycle is where prices for Bitcoin correct to around half of its recent highs over a period of time following which it sees a retracement towards higher levels.

他的建議？不要嘗試交易這些頭寸，尤其是退休基金投資組合中的頭寸。儘管如此，對於那些更注重戰術的人來說，伍德建議在15 萬美元左右兌現一些比特幣，因為他的基本情況是，在減半後的周期中，加密貨幣將上漲三倍，因為趨勢是持有它的資本利得每個減半週期後減半以上。減半週期是指比特幣價格在一段時間內回調至近期高點的一半左右，隨後回撤至更高水準。

Bitcoin's halvings have a history of fueling massive gains. After the first halving in November 2012, Bitcoin skyrocketed 90x in 12 months. The second halving in July 2016 saw a 30x jump in 18 months.

比特幣減半曆來帶來巨大收益。 2012 年 11 月第一次減半後，比特幣在 12 個月內飆升了 90 倍。 2016 年 7 月的第二次減半在 18 個月內飆升了 30 倍。

The third halving in May 2020 brought a 7.5x rise in 11 months, eventually hitting a record $68,992 in November 2021, marking an 8x gain in 18 months. Since the most recent halving in April 2023, Bitcoin has already climbed 54 percent to a high of $98,450.

2020 年 5 月的第三次減半帶來了 11 個月內上漲 7.5 倍，最終在 2021 年 11 月達到創紀錄的 68,992 美元，18 個月內上漲了 8 倍。自 2023 年 4 月最近一次減半以來，比特幣已上漲 54% 至 98,450 美元的高點。

With bullish trends in Bitcoin are now making it hard for investors to ignore it, Trump’s mainstreaming push is giving the crypto an undeniable spotlight. But hold your golden horses—Wood warns against swapping gold for Bitcoin just yet. Instead, think of it as your digital alternative worth a shot. One that is worth giving a try.

隨著比特幣的看漲趨勢現在讓投資者很難忽視它，川普的主流化推動使加密貨幣成為不可否認的焦點。但請把握好你的金馬——伍德警告不要用黃金換比特幣。相反，請將其視為值得一試的數位替代方案。值得一試的一個。