Polymarket 對 UMA 的決定提出異議

爭議的焦點是預測市場詢問美國前總統唐納德·特朗普的兒子巴倫·特朗普是否參與了名為 DJT 的模因幣的創建。

Prediction market platform Polymarket is set to overturn a ruling from decentralized oracle service UMA on a market predicting whether Barron Trump, son of former U.S. President Donald Trump, was involved in the creation of a meme coin called DJT. The market had been resolved multiple times by UMA with a “no” answer, but Polymarket believes this decision was incorrect and will soon be announcing a corrective measure.

預測市場平台 Polymarket 將推翻去中心化預言機服務 UMA 的一項裁決，該裁決預測美國前總統唐納德·特朗普的兒子巴倫·特朗普是否參與了名為 DJT 的模因幣的創建。 UMA多次向市場提出「不」的答案，但Polymarket認為這項決定是錯誤的，並將很快宣布糾正措施。

The DJT token, which is themed around the Trump family, has been the subject of intense speculation—and controversy. Neither the Trump campaign nor Barron Trump have confirmed or denied any involvement with the token.

以川普家族為主題的 DJT 代幣一直是激烈猜測和爭議的主題。川普競選團隊和巴倫·川普都沒有證實或否認與該代幣有任何關係。

The prediction market on Polymarket was designed to resolve to “Yes” if evidence suggested Barron Trump was involved in creating the Solana-based token, and “No” otherwise. UMA, the decentralized resolver for this market, concluded with a “no” resolution after tokenholders overwhelmingly voted in that direction.

Polymarket 上的預測市場旨在如果有證據表明 Barron Trump 參與創建基於 Solana 的代幣，則回答“是”，否則回答“否”。 UMA 是該市場的去中心化解析器，在代幣持有者以壓倒性多數投票支持該方向後，最終做出了「否」決議。

“This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if a preponderance of the evidence suggests that Barron Trump was involved in the creation of the Solana token, $DJT. Otherwise this market will resolve to ‘No.’ Determination as to whether Barron was involved in the creation of $DJT will be made by this market’s decentralized resolver, UMA, and will take into account all available evidence as of 12 PM ET, June 23.” Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, said.

「如果大量證據表明巴倫川普參與了 Solana 代幣 $DJT 的創建，那麼市場將會做出『是』的決定。否則這個市場將決定「不」。 Barron 是否參與了 $DJT 的創建將由該市場的去中心化解析器 UMA 做出決定，並將考慮截至美國東部時間 6 月 23 日中午 12 點的所有可用證據。 Polymarket 執行長 Shayne Coplan 表示。

However, bettors who held “yes” shares have protested this decision, arguing that it was flawed. Over $1 million was wagered on this market, making the stakes particularly high.

然而，持有「yes」股票的投注者對此決定提出抗議，認為其有缺陷。這個市場的賭注超過 100 萬美元，賭注特別高。

Martin “Pharma Bro” Shkreli, who was convicted, has been vocal in his claims that Barron was involved, even posting screenshots on X (formerly Twitter) suggesting that Barron was being advised by lawyers to remain silent.

被定罪的 Martin “Pharma Bro” Shkreli 一直直言不諱地聲稱巴倫參與其中，甚至在 X（以前的 Twitter）上發布了螢幕截圖，暗示律師建議巴倫保持沉默。

UMA, which acts as a decentralized oracle for a range of prediction markets, has faced scrutiny in the past for some of its market resolutions. Last fall, questions arose about what it meant to “find” the missing OceanGate submersible, which imploded near the Titanic wreckage. More recently, in May, UMA was criticized for its resolution of a market questioning whether an Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) had been approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission. In both instances, skepticism from some bettors followed UMA’s decisions.

UMA 是一系列預測市場的去中心化預言機，過去曾因其一些市場決議而受到審查。去年秋天，人們對「找到」失踪的「海洋之門」潛水器意味著什麼產生了疑問，該潛水器在泰坦尼克號殘骸附近爆炸。最近，5 月份，UMA 因解決市場質疑以太坊交易所交易基金 (ETF) 是否已獲得美國證券交易委員會批准而受到批評。在這兩種情況下，一些博彩玩家對 UMA 的決定表示懷疑。

The present controversy with the DJT token has further strained the relationship between Polymarket and UMA. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has not yet commented on what the fix for this issue will be or when it will be implemented.

目前 DJT 代幣的爭議進一步加劇了 Polymarket 和 UMA 之間的關係。 Polymarket 執行長 Shayne Coplan 尚未就該問題的解決方案或何時實施發表評論。

The optimistic Oracle

樂觀的甲骨文

UMA Optimistic Oracle enables contracts to quickly request and receive any data information. The Optimistic Oracle acts as a generalized escalation game between contracts that initiate a price request and UMA’s dispute resolution system, which is known as the Data Verification Mechanism (DVM). Prices that are proposed by the Optimistic Oracle will not be sent to the DVM unless it is disputed.

UMA Optimistic Oracle 使合約能夠快速請求和接收任何資料資訊。樂觀預言機充當發起價格請求的合約與 UMA 爭議解決系統（稱為資料驗證機制 (DVM)）之間的廣義升級賽局。樂觀預言機提出的價格不會發送到 DVM，除非有爭議。