波卡面臨支撐考驗，價格預測懸而未決； Arbitrum 掌控代幣解鎖動態

由於看跌情緒和缺乏投資者吸引力持續存在，Polkadot (DOT) 面臨跌至 5 美元的局面。同時，儘管對代幣解鎖存在擔憂，但隨著 BOLD 的推出和交易量的增加，Arbitrum (ARB) 展示了成長潛力。對 DOT 和 ARB 的價格動態進行了分析，突出了潛在的支撐位和阻力位。

Polkadot and Arbitrum: A Tale of Market Dynamics and Price Forecasts

Polkadot 和 Arbitrum：市場動態和價格預測的故事

Amidst the ongoing crypto market turbulence, Polkadot (DOT) has exhibited resilience, temporarily suspending its downward trajectory. However, the prevailing bearish sentiment, amplified by recent market developments, threatens to push the Layer 2 altcoin towards a crucial support level of $5.

在加密貨幣市場持續動盪的情況下，Polkadot（DOT）表現出了韌性，暫時停止了下行趨勢。然而，當前的看跌情緒因近期市場發展而加劇，有可能將 Layer 2 山寨幣推向 5 美元的關鍵支撐位。

Polkadot's recovery hinges critically on the support from its existing holders and the attraction of new investors. Historically, an influx of fresh capital and increased market participation have served as catalysts for upward price movements.

Polkadot 的復甦關鍵取決於現有持有者的支持和新投資者的吸引力。從歷史上看，新資本的湧入和市場參與度的增加一直是價格上漲的催化劑。

Polkadot: Challenges in Attracting Investors

Polkadot：吸引投資人的挑戰

Polkadot currently faces challenges in attracting investors, as evidenced by its Sharpe Ratio languishing at -5.17, indicating a negative risk-adjusted return. Such metrics deter investors from engaging with the digital asset. The current seven-month low in Polkadot's Sharpe Ratio casts doubt on its price recovery prospects.

波卡目前在吸引投資者方面面臨挑戰，其夏普比率徘徊在-5.17，顯示風險調整後回報為負值。這些指標阻止投資者參與數位資產。波卡夏普比率目前的七個月低點讓人對其價格復甦前景產生懷疑。

Moreover, Polkadot is experiencing a decline in interest from its current holders, with traders withdrawing from the Futures market. This exodus exacerbates the potential for further price declines.

此外，隨著交易員退出期貨市場，Polkadot 目前持有者的興趣正在下降。這種外流加劇了價格進一步下跌的可能性。

Polkadot's Price Forecast

Polkadot 的價格預測

At the time of writing, Polkadot trades at $6.6 on Gate.io, having undergone a substantial correction following the invalidation of its falling wedge pattern. Given the prevailing market conditions, DOT remains susceptible to further downside.

截至撰寫本文時，Polkadot 在 Gate.io 上的交易價格為 6.6 美元，在其下降楔形模式失效後經歷了大幅調整。鑑於當前的市場狀況，DOT 仍然容易受到進一步下跌的影響。

Should the $6.3 support level fail to hold, Polkadot's price could plummet to $5.7, marking a four-month low and potentially signaling a market bottom for 2024. Conversely, if the $6.3 support holds firm, a bounce-back could be possible, with Polkadot's price aiming to surpass $7.00 and potentially negating the bearish outlook.

如果6.3 美元的支撐位未能守住，Polkadot 的價格可能會暴跌至5.7 美元，創下四個月低點，並可能預示著2024 年市場觸底。會出現反彈，Polkadot 的價格可能會下跌。

Arbitrum: Innovation and Token Unlock Dynamics

Arbitrum：創新與代幣解鎖動態

Offchain Labs, the driving force behind Arbitrum, has made significant strides by unveiling Arbitrum BOLD on its testnet platform. Arbitrum BOLD introduces Bounded Liquidity Delay (BOLD), an innovative dispute resolution protocol tailored for optimistic rollups. This development empowers users to participate as validator nodes and contribute to the network's consensus mechanism, while implementing robust defenses against delay attacks.

Offchain Labs 是 Arbitrum 背後的推動力量，透過在測試網路平台上推出 Arbitrum BOLD，取得了重大進展。 Arbitrum BOLD 引入了有界流動性延遲 (BOLD)，這是一種專為樂觀匯總量身定制的創新爭議解決協議。這項開發使用戶能夠作為驗證節點參與並為網路的共識機製做出貢獻，同時實施針對延遲攻擊的強大防禦。

Arbitrum has emerged as a leading Layer 2 network on Ethereum, boasting a substantial user base. In August 2021, Offchain Labs secured $120 million in funding, led by Lightspeed Venture Partners.

Arbitrum 已成為以太坊上領先的第 2 層網絡，擁有龐大的用戶基礎。 2021 年 8 月，Offchain Labs 獲得了 Lightspeed Venture Partners 領投的 1.2 億美元融資。

Genesis of BOLD

BOLD 的起源

Offchain Labs introduced BOLD in August 2023 to address vulnerabilities in the validation mechanisms of Arbitrum One and Nova. These protocols rely on fraud proofs for validation, which currently operate under permissioned settings due to their susceptibility to denial-of-service attacks.

Offchain Labs 於 2023 年 8 月推出 BOLD，以解決 Arbitrum One 和 Nova 驗證機制中的漏洞。這些協議依賴詐欺證明進行驗證，由於它們容易受到拒絕服務攻擊，因此目前在許可設定下運行。

BOLD addresses these concerns by introducing a fixed upper limit of 7 days on confirmation delays, rendering the protocol resilient against delay attacks. This enables Arbitrum chains to transition to a permissionless validation model, enhancing decentralization.

BOLD 透過引入 7 天的確認延遲固定上限來解決這些問題，使協定能夠抵禦延遲攻擊。這使得 Arbitrum 鏈能夠過渡到無需許可的驗證模型，從而增強去中心化。

Arbitrum Price Forecast Ahead of Token Unlocks

代幣解鎖前的仲裁價格預測

Token unlocks can serve as catalysts for bearish price movements, particularly when the recipients are likely to sell their holdings quickly. Such an influx of tokens into circulation without a corresponding surge in demand can create an imbalance, favoring supply over demand.

代幣解鎖可以成為看跌價格走勢的催化劑，特別是當接收者可能迅速出售其持有的代幣時。代幣大量湧入流通而需求卻沒有相應激增，可能會造成不平衡，有利於供應而不是需求。

This dynamic is evident in the Arbitrum network, where token unlocks this week are expected to add to volatility. The network is set to unlock 92.65 million ARB tokens, approximately 3.49% of the circulating supply, with allocations to the Arbitrum team, future team members, advisors, and investors.

這種動態在 Arbitrum 網路中很明顯，本週的代幣解鎖預計將增加波動性。該網路將解鎖 9,265 萬個 ARB 代幣，約佔流通供應量的 3.49%，分配給 Arbitrum 團隊、未來團隊成員、顧問和投資者。

The previous token unlock event on March 16 released 1.11 billion ARB tokens, 41.89% of the circulating supply, leading to an over 10% decline in the price of Arbitrum. If historical patterns hold, a similar downward trend could be expected.

3月16日的上一次解鎖活動釋放了11.1億個ARB代幣，佔流通量的41.89%，導致Arbitrum價格下跌超過10%。如果歷史模式成立，預計會出現類似的下降趨勢。

Despite an attempted recovery on Sunday, the price of Arbitrum faces resistance to further upward movement. Cautious traders are concerned about liquidity drains during exits, increasing the risk of a price decline.

儘管週日試圖恢復，但 Arbitrum 的價格仍面臨進一步上漲的阻力。謹慎的交易者擔心退出期間流動性流失，從而增加價格下跌的風險。

A potential scenario entails a retest of the psychological support level at $1.00, representing a 10% downturn. In a more adverse scenario, the price could plummet to its Saturday low of $0.8556, a 25% decrease from current levels.

一個可能的情況是重新測試 1.00 美元的心理支撐位，即下跌 10%。在更不利的情況下，價格可能會暴跌至週六低點 0.8556 美元，較目前水準下跌 25%。

Conversely, robust buying pressure could trigger an upward surge, propelling the ARB price beyond its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.45. However, the bullish outlook hinges on the price breaching and sustaining a close above $1.73.

相反，強勁的購買壓力可能會引發價格上漲，推動 ARB 價格突破 1.45 美元的 200 天簡單移動平均線 (SMA)。然而，看漲前景取決於價格突破並維持在 1.73 美元上方。

Achieving a breakthrough beyond this critical level and the incorporation of BOLD, which aligns with the 50-day SMA at $1.71, could attract buyers and drive the ARB price beyond projected targets.

突破這一關鍵水平並納入 BOLD（與 1.71 美元的 50 日移動平均線一致）可能會吸引買家並推動 ARB 價格超出預期目標。