並非所有的好消息都是買信號。有時，最積極的頭條標誌著轉折點 - 一種現象的投資者對“出售新聞”非常了解。

2025年5月的第一周，有許多積極的標題湧入加密貨幣市場。自一月以來，比特幣首次飆升了103,000美元。

The cryptocurrency market experienced a week of rapid price swings and shifting investor sentiment, leading to the familiar phenomenon of “Sell the News.”

加密貨幣市場經歷了一周的快速價格波動和轉移的投資者情緒，導致了“出售新聞”的熟悉現象。

As May 8 unfolded, a wave of positive headlines began rolling into the crypto sphere. Bitcoin price surged past $103,000 for the first time since January, smashing through the $100,000 psychological barrier. The market also witnessed a significant increase in the Fear & Greed Index, which jumped from 48 to 70 in just three days.

隨著5月8日的展開，一波積極的標題開始滾入加密球體。自1月以來，比特幣的價格首次飆升了103,000美元，在100,000美元的心理障礙中粉碎了。該市場還見證了恐懼和貪婪指數的顯著增長，該指數在短短三天內從48升至70。

Additionally, the total global crypto market cap surged by over $160 billion, surpassing the $3.2 trillion mark. At the same time, U.S. jobless claims dropped to 228,000, falling below expectations of 234,000. This economic news fueled investor optimism that the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates stable or even initiate a rate-cutting cycle in Q3.

此外，全球加密貨幣總上限飆升了1600億美元，超過了3.2萬億美元。同時，美國失業者索賠下降到228,000，低於234,000的預期。這一經濟新聞激發了投資者的樂觀情緒，即美聯儲可能會保持利率穩定，甚至啟動第三季度的降價週期。

The bullish sentiment sent altcoins like SOL, AVAX, TON, and INJ soaring by more than 15% over just four trading sessions. However, within less than 48 hours, the market underwent a sharp reversal. Bitcoin slipped below $101,800, while Ethereum fell back to around $2,100. Several altcoins also shed between 5% and 10% of their value as capital rotated out of the week’s top gainers.

看漲的情緒使Sol，Avax，Ton和Inj等山寨幣僅在四次交易中飆升了15％以上。但是，在不到48小時的時間內，市場發生了急劇的逆轉。比特幣低於$ 101,800，而以太坊降至2,100美元左右。隨著資本從本週的最高漲幅中旋轉，幾個山寨幣也降低了其價值的5％至10％。

The rapid shifts in crypto prices and the subsequent selloffs had investors discussing a common phrase: “Sell the News.” In traditional finance, the saying “Buy the rumor, sell the news” is an unwritten rule backed by decades of market behavior. But in crypto, where reactions are faster and greed often outweighs fundamentals, this phenomenon becomes even more pronounced.

加密價格的快速變化以及隨後的拋售使投資者討論了一個共同的短語：“賣出新聞”。在傳統的金融中，“購買謠言，出售新聞”是一項不成文的規則，受到數十年的市場行為的支持。但是在加密貨幣中，反應更快且貪婪通常超過基本面，這種現像變得更加明顯。

One of the most classic examples was the launch of the ProShares Bitcoin Futures ETF (BITO) in October 2021. In the lead-up to approval, BTC rallied nearly 40%, advancing from $43,000 to an all-time high of $67,000. However, just three days after the ETF began trading on the NYSE, Bitcoin reversed sharply and entered a months-long correction, finally ending the year at $47,000.

最經典的例子之一是2021年10月的Proshares比特幣期貨ETF（BITO）推出。在獲得批准的領先優勢中，BTC漲到了近40％，從43,000美元上漲至歷史高處67,000美元。但是，在ETF開始交易紐約證券交易所的三天后，比特幣急劇扭轉並進行了一個月的更正，最終以47,000美元的價格結束。

As the dust settled, it became clear that investors had expected good news to drive fresh inflows, but instead, it marked a sentiment top.

隨著塵埃落定，很明顯投資者期望好消息推動新的流入，但它標誌著情緒上衣。

A similar pattern emerged in January 2024 when the SEC rejected multiple Spot Ethereum ETFs and markets dipped only modestly. Later, as rumors of approval resurfaced in late February, ETH experienced a surge from $1,650 to $2,300 in just 10 days. But after the SEC officially greenlit four Spot ETH ETFs in March, unexpectedly, ETH dropped 12% during the first week following the announcement.

在2024年1月，SEC拒絕多個位置以太坊ETF和市場的類似模式出現。後來，隨著2月下旬批准的謠言浮出水面，ETH在短短10天內經歷了從1,650美元增加到2,300美元。但是，在三月份出乎意料的是，SEC在3月正式綠色的四個ETH ETF之後，ETH在宣布後的第一周下降了12％。

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More recently, in April 2025, Pudgy Penguins’ $PENGU token soared to $0.48 following a Walmart partnership announcement and a spike in Google Trends interest. Remarkably, just one day later, the token crashed by over 60% as the team unlocked a large tranche of tokens for the community.

最近，在2025年4月，沃爾瑪（Walmart）合作夥伴關係公告和Google Trends興趣激增之後，Pudgy Penguins的$ Pengu代幣飆升至0.48美元。值得注意的是，僅僅一天后，由於該團隊為社區解鎖了一大批代幣，因此代幣墜毀了60％。

The meme coin market has also repeatedly echoed this pattern. For instance, BONK on Solana experienced a surge of over 300% in six days with rumors circulating about a major centralized exchange partnership. However, just two days after the news was confirmed, BONK lost nearly half its value within 48 hours.

模因硬幣市場也反復回應了這種模式。例如，索拉納（Solana）的邦克（Bonk）在六天內經歷了超過300％的激增，謠言傳播了有關主要的集中式交流夥伴關係。但是，在消息得到確認僅兩天后，邦克在48小時內就失去了近一半的價值。

The “Sell the News” phenomenon usually occurs not because the news itself is bad, but rather because the market has already ‘priced in’ the good news, with expectations outrunning reality.

“賣出新聞”現象通常發生並不是因為新聞本身很糟糕，而是因為市場已經在“好消息”中'定價，期望的現實超出了現實。

According to CryptoQuant, between April 28 and May 10, stablecoin inflows to exchanges increased by 27%, suggesting that investors were preparing liquidity to ‘ride the news.’

據CryptoQuant稱，在4月28日至5月10日之間，Stablecoin向交易所的流入增長了27％，這表明投資者正在準備流動性來“乘以新聞”。

Source: CryptoQuant

資料來源：加密

However, during the same period, the number of whale wallets, defined as wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, remained largely flat. This observation might indicate that the new inflows stemmed primarily from short-term speculators.

但是，在同一時期，定義為容納1,000至10,000 BTC的錢包的數量在很大程度上保持平坦。該觀察結果可能表明，新的流入主要來自短期投機者。

The technical indicators also flashed warnings. On May 9, the daily RSI for both Bitcoin and ETH crossed the 70 level, which is commonly associated with overbought conditions. At the same time, trading volume began to decrease despite the price continuing to rise—a classic technical divergence that often precedes a price reversal.

技術指標還閃爍了警告。 5月9日，比特幣和ETH的每日RSI越過了70級，這通常與過度買賣條件有關。同時，儘管價格持續上漲，但交易量開始下降，這是經典的技術分歧，通常在價格逆轉之前。

Data from Glassnode showed a slight uptick in BTC deposits to exchanges on May 10, which coincided with the market's short-term top.

GlassNode的數據顯示，BTC沉積物在5月10日對交易所的交流略有上升，這與市場的短期頂部相吻合。

The post Good News Isn’t Always a Buy Signal: Decoding the '

好消息並不總是買信號：解碼'