MVRV 比率及其對比特幣即將產生的影響

一位化名「tugbachain」的 CryptoQuant 分析師最近揭示了比特幣市場的一個關鍵趨勢。

A CryptoQuant analyst known as “tugbachain” has highlighted a key trend within the Bitcoin market. Posting on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, the analyst has shed light on the MVRV ratio and its potential impact on BTC.

一位名為「tugbachain」的 CryptoQuant 分析師強調了比特幣市場的一個關鍵趨勢。該分析師在 CryptoQuant QuickTake 平台上發帖，闡明了 MVRV 比率及其對 BTC 的潛在影響。

What Is The MVRV Ratio And Its Impending Impact On Bitcoin?

MVRV 比率是多少及其對比特幣即將產生的影響？

The MVRV ratio is a metric used to gauge whether a cryptocurrency is over or undervalued. This ratio is calculated by comparing the market value to the realized value of Bitcoin, offering insight into investor behavior and market trends.

MVRV 比率是用來衡量加密貨幣是否被高估或低估的指標。該比率是透過將比特幣的市場價值與已實現價值進行比較來計算的，可提供對投資者行為和市場趨勢的洞察。

According to tugbachain, this ratio has proven useful in identifying market tops, bottoms, and notable peaks and troughs over the years. The MVRV ratio has historically demonstrated three major Bitcoin halving cycles, each marked by unique price behavior and investor sentiment.

根據 tugbachain 的說法，多年來，這一比率已被證明有助於識別市場頂部、底部以及顯著的波峰和波谷。 MVRV 比率歷史上顯示了三個主要的比特幣減半週期，每個週期都以獨特的價格行為和投資者情緒為標誌。

As explained by the analyst, the MVRV ratio currently sits around 1.9, with significant support noted at 1.75. The question raised by tugbachain is whether breaking the downtrend could lead to a rise in the MVRV ratio to the 4-6 range, which has historically signaled a Bitcoin peak.

如分析師所解釋的，MVRV 比率目前約為 1.9，重要支撐位為 1.75。 tugbachain 提出的問題是，打破下降趨勢是否會導致 MVRV 比率上升至 4-6 範圍，這在歷史上標誌著比特幣見頂。

In the post, tugbachain writes:

tugbachain 在貼文中寫道：

“Currently, the MVRV ratio shows a historical downtrend with significant support at 1.75. As the ratio now sits at 1.9, the question arises: if it breaks the downtrend and reverses the downtrend, could it once again climb to the 4-6 range, marking a Bitcoin peak as seen in previous cycles?”

「目前，MVRV 比率呈現歷史下降趨勢，重要支撐位為 1.75。由於該比率現在為 1.9，問題就出現了：如果它打破了下降趨勢並扭轉了下降趨勢，它是否會再次攀升至 4-6 範圍，標誌著比特幣在之前週期中出現的峰值？

BTC Market Performance And Technical Outlook In Recent Weeks

近幾週BTC市場表現與技術展望

Bitcoin has seen heightened price activity in recent weeks within the broader market context. The asset rallied above $66,000 last week, sparking enthusiasm in the crypto community with hopes for a bullish October, playfully termed “Uptober.”

最近幾週，在更廣泛的市場背景下，比特幣的價格活動加劇。該資產上週上漲至 66,000 美元以上，激發了加密社區的熱情，人們對 10 月份的牛市抱有希望，被戲稱為「Uptober」。

However, this upward momentum was short-lived, as BTC experienced a notable price correction soon after. Within the past week alone, Bitcoin has seen a decline of around 7.2%, falling to a trading price of $61,496 at the time of writing.

然而，這種上漲勢頭是短暫的，因為比特幣很快就經歷了顯著的價格調整。僅在過去一周內，比特幣下跌了約 7.2%，截至撰寫本文時，交易價格跌至 61,496 美元。

Despite this correction, BTC has rebounded slightly, posting a modest 1.9% gain over the past 24 hours. Aside from tugbachain’s analysis, other crypto market analysts have provided additional perspectives on the MVRV ratio’s implications for BTC.

儘管出現了這項調整，比特幣還是小幅反彈，在過去 24 小時內小幅上漲 1.9%。除了 tugbachain 的分析之外，其他加密貨幣市場分析師也對 MVRV 比率對 BTC 的影響提供了更多觀點。

Ali, a prominent analyst on the social media platform X, has pointed out that the MVRV ratio's behavior since May has notably impacted BTC price movements.

社群媒體平台 X 的著名分析師 Ali 指出，自 5 月以來 MVRV 比率的行為對 BTC 價格走勢產生了顯著影響。

Ali highlights that each rejection of the MVRV ratio from its 90-day average has led to a significant correction in BTC price. According to Ali, the latest rejection has already seen a 10% drop from Bitcoin’s all-time high, suggesting the possibility of further downside pressure.

Ali 強調，每次 MVRV 比率低於 90 天平均值都會導致 BTC 價格大幅調整。阿里表示，最新的拒絕已經使比特幣的歷史高點下跌了 10%，這表明可能存在進一步的下行壓力。