摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）現在預測，即2025年的美聯儲率降低，這是一個重大的預測轉變。掉頭的背後是什麼，對市場意味著什麼？

Morgan Stanley's Forecast Flip: Decoding the Fed Rate Cut U-Turn

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley

Get this: Morgan Stanley's completely changed its tune on interest rates, now betting on Fed rate cuts in 2025. Buckle up, because this forecast flip is a big deal.

明白：摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）完全改變了對利率的調整，現在在2025年降低了降價。

The Big Reveal: Morgan Stanley's U-Turn

大揭示：摩根士丹利的掉頭

Just weeks ago, the word on the street was no rate cuts this year, according to Morgan Stanley. Now? They're calling for two cuts in 2025 – 25 basis points each in September and December – with more to come in 2026. That's quite a pivot!

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）說，就在幾週前，今年街上的話沒有降低速度。現在？他們呼籲在2025年和12月的2025年至25個基點中進行兩次削減 - 在2026年將有更多的削減。這是一個很重要的！

Powell's Jackson Hole Hint

鮑威爾的傑克遜洞提示

So, what gives? Apparently, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole dropped some hints. Instead of harping on inflation, Powell seemed more worried about the labor market. Morgan Stanley thinks this means the Fed might act sooner to protect jobs.

那麼，什麼給呢？顯然，美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）在傑克遜·霍爾（Jackson Hole）的講話拋棄了一些提示。鮑威爾似乎不再擔心通貨膨脹，而是更擔心勞動力市場。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）認為這意味著美聯儲可能會更快地採取行動來保護工作。

More Banks Joining the Chorus

更多的銀行加入合唱

Morgan Stanley isn't the only one seeing things this way. Barclays, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank are also predicting a rate cut next month. ING even sees cuts coming in September, October, and December 2025, with a bigger one in 2026. Seems like the winds are changing.

摩根士丹利並不是唯一這樣看到事物的人。巴克萊，法國巴黎銀行和德意志銀行還預測下個月降低了稅率。 Ing甚至看到削減在2026年9月，10月和12月的削減，在2026年較大。似乎風正在改變。

Market's Betting on It

市場上的賭注

The markets are putting their money where their mouth is. Traders are now pricing in an 81.9% chance of a September move, according to LSEG data. CME FedWatch is even more bullish, pegging the probability at 84.3%. But, Bank of America is still holding out, predicting no change this year.

市場將他們的錢放在他們的嘴裡。根據LSEG數據，交易者現在以81.9％的機會定價。 CME FedWatch更為看漲，將概率固定在84.3％。但是，美國銀行仍在堅持下去，預測今年沒有變化。

Trump's Political Curveball

特朗普的政治曲線球

Politics are always in the mix, right? President Trump's comments about potentially removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook are adding another layer of uncertainty. JPMorgan analysts warn this could shake up the FOMC and raise questions about the Fed's independence.

政治總是混在一起的，對嗎？特朗普總統關於潛在撤職州長麗莎·庫克（Lisa Cook）的評論正在增加另一層不確定性。摩根大通分析師警告說，這可能會動搖FOMC並提出有關美聯儲獨立性的疑問。

All Eyes on September FOMC Meeting

九月FOMC會議的所有人

Morgan Stanley is playing it cool, giving a September cut only a 50% chance, given ongoing inflation worries and political heat. The September 16-17 FOMC meeting is circled on everyone's calendar. A Fed move toward easier money could juice up markets, especially for crypto like Bitcoin.

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的表現很酷，鑑於持續的通貨膨脹令人擔憂和政治炎熱，9月份的機會只有50％的機會。 9月16日至17日的FOMC會議在每個人的日曆上盤旋。美聯儲朝著更容易的錢轉向市場，尤其是對於像比特幣這樣的加密貨幣而言。

The Ethereum Angle: A Sneaky Advantage?

以太坊角度：偷偷摸摸的優勢？

Here's where things get interesting. While everyone's obsessing over rate cuts, Ethereum is quietly becoming the darling of institutional investors. Its staking yields (think 4-6%) and deflationary mechanics are making it a hot alternative to low-yielding U.S. Treasuries. The SEC is providing regulatory clarity, and even the big players like BlackRock are getting in on the Ethereum ETF action. Could Ethereum be the real winner in this whole rate cut saga? I am not saying it is, but I am saying to pay attention.

這是事情變得有趣的地方。儘管每個人都痴迷於削減稅率，但以太坊正在悄悄地成為機構投資者的寵兒。它的積分產量（認為4-6％）和通縮機制使其成為低收產美國國庫的熱門替代品。 SEC提供了法規清晰度，甚至像BlackRock這樣的大型參與者也在採用以太坊ETF行動。以太坊可以成為整個速度削減傳奇的真正贏家嗎？我並不是說是，但我說要注意。

Final Thoughts: The Fed's Next Move

最終想法：美聯儲的下一步行動

So, there you have it. Morgan Stanley flipped its forecast, Powell dropped some hints, and the market's buzzing. September's shaping up to be a wild ride. Will the Fed pull the trigger? Stay tuned, because this is one plot twist you don't want to miss. And hey, maybe keep an eye on Ethereum while you're at it – just sayin'!

所以，你有。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）翻轉了預報，鮑威爾（Powell）放棄了一些提示，市場的嗡嗡聲。九月的塑造是瘋狂的旅程。美聯儲會拉動扳機嗎？請繼續關注，因為這是您不想錯過的一個情節扭曲。嘿，也許在您時要注意以太坊 - 只是說！