2025年市場展望及因應計劃

本文為知名分析師及交易員0xKyle對2025年的市場預測與因應計畫。

Original author: 0xKyle

原作者：0xKyle

Compiled by Odaily Planet Daily

Odaily星球日報編譯

Translator: Azuma

譯者：東

Editor's note: This article is a market forecast and response plan for 2025 by well-known analyst and trader 0xKyle.

編按：本文為知名分析師、交易員0xKyle對2025年的市場預測與因應計畫。

In the following article, 0xKyle analyzes and hypothesizes multiple possible scenarios for Bitcoin and altcoins in 2025, and discusses why active portfolio management will outperform passive portfolio management in the new year. 0xKyle also lists his favorite sectors and tracks at the end of the article, which may be helpful for the layout of the new year.

在接下來的文章中，0xKyle 分析並假設了 2025 年比特幣和山寨幣的多種可能情景，並討論了為什麼主動投資組合管理在新的一年將優於被動投資組合管理。 0xKyle也在文末列出了自己最喜歡的板塊和曲目，或許對新一年的佈局有幫助。

The following is the original content of 0xKyle, translated by Odaily Planet Daily.

以下為0xKyle原文內容，由Odaily星球日報翻譯。

GM.

總經理。

Predicting the future is difficult, but as traders and investors we should have a plan. Like all other plans, this one will change as the underlying scenario changes - the market is constantly evolving. This plan is based solely on my predictions of market developments over the next year. It provides insights into my thinking through 2025, but should not be construed as financial advice.

預測未來很困難，但作為交易者和投資者，我們應該有一個計劃。與所有其他計劃一樣，這項計劃也會隨著基本情況的變化而變化——市場正在不斷發展。這個計劃完全基於我對明年市場發展的預測。它提供了我對 2025 年想法的見解，但不應被視為財務建議。

Let me first review my plan for 2024 (Odaily Note: Since this part is mainly a review of Kyle’s personal operations, this article chooses to pass it directly).

先回顧我2024年的計畫（Odaily註：由於這部分主要是對凱爾個人操作的回顧，所以本文選擇直接通過）。

Let's jump right in. As usual, I'll start by discussing the macro expectations/scenarios and then move on to the thematic narrative.

讓我們開始吧。

Scenario Assumptions

情境假設

A new cycle of “2024 - ??” has begun. I personally believe that this cycle began at the end of 2023, but if we look at this cycle in a more rigorous way, the progress so far is:

新一輪的“2024-??”已經開始了。我個人認為這個週期是從2023年底開始的，但如果我們以更嚴謹的方式看待這個週期，到目前為止的進展是：

→On January 10, Bitcoin ETF was launched;

→1月10日，比特幣ETF上線；

→BTC hit a new high, briefly triggering altcoin season;

→BTC創出新高，短暫引發山寨幣季節；

→ Then it entered the volatile period of Q2 and Q3, with BTC hovering between $50,000 and $60,000;

→ 隨後進入Q2、Q3波動期，BTC在5萬-6萬美元之間徘徊；

→After the election day, BTC hit a new high, rising all the way to $100,000;

→選舉日後，BTC再創新高，一路漲至10萬美元；

→It has not been able to effectively break through the 100,000 mark for the time being and is currently hovering above 90,000 US dollars.

→暫時未能有效突破10萬大關，目前徘徊在9萬美元上方。

It is important to note that the alt season often begins at the high point of Bitcoin. The first time was when BTC was hitting $69,000 but failed to break through effectively; the second time was when BTC was hitting $100,000.

值得注意的是，山寨幣季節通常從比特幣的高點開始。第一次是BTC觸及6.9萬美元但未能有效突破；第二次是 BTC 觸及 10 萬美元時。

The next altcoin cycle will likely begin after BTC stabilizes above $100,000. I can't predict the future, and while I hope this will happen in Q1 2025, it's also possible that we'll see a repeat of the 2024 Q2/Q3 volatility in the coming months — I have to be prepared for that. So here are all the scenarios I drew up.

下一個山寨幣週期可能會在 BTC 穩定在 10 萬美元以上之後開始。我無法預測未來，雖然我希望這會在2025 年第一季度發生，但我們也有可能在未來幾個月內看到2024 年第二季度/第三季度的波動重演- 我必須為此做好準備。這是我擬定的所有場景。

Scenario 1: Bitcoin and altcoins rise together

場景一：比特幣和山寨幣齊漲

In that case, the rise will be the only theme in 2025, and we will enter another round of alt season. As Bitcoin continues to rise, all currencies will perform well, and we will repeat the last two months of 2024, with the entire market "rising, rising, rising".

那麼，上漲將是2025年的唯一主題，我們將進入又一輪山寨幣季節。隨著比特幣持續上漲，所有貨幣都會表現良好，我們將重複2024年的最後兩個月，整個市場「上漲、上漲、上漲」。

Likelihood: 30% - 40%

可能性：30% - 40%

Corresponding strategy: Take advantage of the current "panic" to buy and get on board strong altcoins.

相應的策略：利用當前的「恐慌」購買並登上強勢的山寨幣。

Hypothesis 2: Bitcoin rises, while other currencies rise slightly

假設二：比特幣上漲，其他貨幣小漲

This will be a repeat of 2024, where we will see altcoins oscillating over the next few months, but Bitcoin is more bullish (because only Bitcoin is going up). Some altcoins will also perform well.

這將是 2024 年的重演，我們將看到山寨幣在未來幾個月內振盪，但比特幣更為看漲（因為只有比特幣在上漲）。有些山寨幣也會表現良好。

Likelihood: 50% - 60%

可能性：50% - 60%

Corresponding strategy: Still buy during the current “panic”, but you need to invest in altcoins in specific sectors. The key is to avoid areas with high attention and look for the next narrative that may rise.

對應策略：當前「恐慌」時期依然買入，但需要投資特定板塊的山寨幣。關鍵是避開高度關注的領域，尋找下一個可能崛起的敘事。

Hypothetical Scenario 3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins fall

假設場景 3：比特幣上漲，山寨幣下跌

This means that the top is now in for altcoins, although Bitcoin will continue to perform well.

這意味著山寨幣現在已經見頂，儘管比特幣將繼續表現良好。

Likelihood: 20% - 30%

可能性：20% - 30%

Corresponding strategy: Sell all altcoins. Although we have to bear some retracements, if the altcoins do not rise, we may have to sell them all.

對應策略：出售所有山寨幣。雖然我們要承受一些回撤，但如果山寨幣不漲，我們可能就得全部賣掉。

Scenario 4: Bitcoin falls, altcoins fall

情境 4：比特幣下跌，山寨幣下跌

Likelihood: 10% - 20%.

可能性：10% - 20%。

I believe several things will happen. I believe BTC’s next new high will not take as long as 2024 because the backdrop of macro tailwinds is real. In a cycle where the regulatory environment is hell, ETFs have been launched, but TradFi still

我相信將會發生一些事情。我相信 BTC 的下一個新高不會像 2024 年那麼久，因為宏觀順風的背景是真實的。在監管環境地獄般的周期裡，ETF已經推出，但TradFi仍然