儘管清算了8.45億美元，但比特幣（BTC）的價格卻達到了110,000美元的歷史最高水平

隨著比特幣（BTC）的價格達到110,000美元的歷史最高點，便宜的價格行動在短短兩天內就清算了8.45億美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been churning choppily as the cryptocurrency approaches its all-time high of $110,000. In the past two days alone, $845 million in crypto futures got liquidated.

隨著加密貨幣的歷史最高點11萬美元，比特幣（BTC）的價格一直在攪動。僅在過去的兩天中，有8.45億美元的加密期貨就被清算了。

However, despite this culling, Open Interest (OI) on futures remained elevated at 199.72k BTC. Moreover, an analysis of institutional activity and crypto ETF outflows shows that investors remain optimistic about BTC’s future.

然而，儘管有這種淘汰，但對期貨的開放興趣（OI）仍在199.72K BTC上升高。此外，對機構活動和加密ETF流出的分析表明，投資者對BTC的未來仍然樂觀。

Here’s a breakdown:

這是一個故障：

BTC Price Pushes Toward ATH As $845 Million Gets Liquidated

BTC價格推向ATH，當時有8.45億美元被清算

The May 18 and 19 price action saw BTC price climb to $106.6k, drop to $102k, and revisit a four-month high of $107.1k. As a result of this rapid price change, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a liquidation of $845 million, according to CoinGlass data.

5月18日和19日的價格行動使BTC價格上漲至106.6K美元，跌至102,000美元，並重新審視了107.1k美元的四個月高點。根據Coinglass Data的數據，由於價格迅速變化，加密貨幣市場的清算價為8.45億美元。

Most of the liquidations occurred on Binance, with $604.47 million in crypto futures getting liquidated on the exchange. In comparison, OKX saw $106.35 million in liquidations, and Bybit saw $94.34 million.

大多數清算發生在二元時，有6.0447億美元的加密期貨在交易所清算。相比之下，OKX的清算票價為1.0635億美元，拜比特（Bybit）看到了9434萬美元。

CoinGlass notes that the OI growth relative to Bitcoin’s price since Q2 highlights how bullish traders are. At the start of Q2, the cryptocurrency’s price was around $90k, and OI was at 100k BTC. Now, as BTC approaches $110k, OI has nearly doubled to 199.72k BTC.

Coinglass指出，自第2季度以來，OI增長相對於比特幣的價格強調了看漲的商人。在第二季度開始時，加密貨幣的價格約為9萬美元，OI為100k BTC。現在，隨著BTC接近11萬美元，OI幾乎翻了一番，達到199.72k BTC。

Another driver of Bitcoin’s recent push to $107k is the “unexpectedly bullish turn in US trade diplomacy,” adds trading firm QCP Capital.

貿易公司QCP Capital補充說，比特幣最近推向107,000美元的另一個驅動力是“意想不到的看漲美國貿易外交”。

Providing their insight into crypto’s short-term future, QCP Capital noted that the rebound in cryptos has “outpaced equities, with BTC edging close to all-time highs.”

QCP Capital提供了對加密貨幣短期未來的洞察力，他指出，加密貨幣的反彈已經超過了股票，而BTC的邊緣接近歷史最高點”。

The trading firm adds, “there is further room for digital assets to rally,” and attributes Coinbase’s inclusion into the S&P 500 on May 19 as a catalyst.

這家貿易公司補充說：“數字資產還有進一步的集會空間”，並將Coinbase於5月19日以催化劑的形式歸因於標準普爾500指數。

“History tells us that index inclusion tends to act as a short-term catalyst, as passive managers adjust their allocations to track the benchmark more closely.”

“歷史告訴我們，隨著被動經理調整其分配以更仔細地跟踪基準，索引包容傾向於作為短期催化劑。”

Finally, filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) last week showed that MetaPlanet and MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) accumulated 1,004 and 7,390 BTCs, respectively. This is another interesting development that could help push Bitcoin price higher.

最後，上周向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件顯示，Metaplanet和MicroStrategy（NASDAQ：MSTR）分別累積了1,004和7,390 BTC。這是另一個有趣的發展，可以幫助提高比特幣價格。

May also saw a record inflow of 3.3 billion into crypto spot ETFs, surpassing April’s 2.97 billion netflow and continuing the strong start to the year.

梅還將創紀錄的33億美元流入加密貨幣ETF，超過4月份的29.7億NETFLOW，並持續了本年度的強勁開端。

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Technical Analysis

比特幣價格預測：技術分析

The fundamentals and on-chain metrics are clearly bullish and forecast a sustained growth for Bitcoin. However, the technicals provide a much more nuanced outlook – futures and options data show that the short-term outlook is treacherous with the possibility of an ATH retest and a potential crash.

基本面和鏈界指標顯然是看好的，並預測比特幣的持續增長。但是，技術提供了更加細微的前景 - 期貨和期權數據表明，短期前景是危險的，有可能進行ATH重新測試和潛在的崩潰。

Bitcoin’s aggregated Implied Volatility (IV) index is at a 10-month low, warning traders to be cautious. This metric averages IVs across multiple timeframes for BTC and evaluates deviations from the mean to determine overextended moves. A high deviation signals expectations are skewed and often leads to price reversals. The data is calculated using Volmex’s Implied Volatility Indices.

比特幣的匯總隱含波動率（IV）指數處於10個月的低點，警告交易者要謹慎。該度量平均為BTC的多個時間表，並評估與平均值的偏差以確定過度擴展的動作。高偏差的信號期望偏斜，通常會導致價格逆轉。數據是使用Volmex的隱含波動率指數計算得出的。

The divergence between dropping IV and rallying Bitcoin price signals heightened uncertainty. In BTC’s case, it could be due to potential profit-taking, resistance levels, or fear of corrections.

下降IV和拉力幣價格信號之間的差異提高了不確定性。在BTC的情況下，這可能是由於潛在的利潤，抵抗水平或對更正的恐懼。

Supporting this slightly bearish outlook for Bitcoin price is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering in the overbought zone. Interestingly, RSI has produced lower highs since May 10 while BTC has been setting up higher highs. This non-conformity is known as bearish divergence and often signals an impending pullback.

支持比特幣價格的這種看跌的前景是徘徊在過多的區域中的相對強度指數（RSI）。有趣的是，自5月10日以來，RSI在BTC建立較高的高點時產生了較低的高點。這種不合格被稱為看跌差異，通常標誌著即將發生的回調。

While a short-term spike in buying pressure could push Bitcoin price to ATH or even set up a new one at $110,000, it is unlikely that it will sustain there due to the aforementioned warning signals.

儘管短期購買壓力的高峰可能會將比特幣價格推向ATH，甚至以110,000美元的價格設定了一個新的價格，但由於上述警告信號，它不可能在那裡持續下去。

Highlighting this short-term uncertainty are CME Open Interest and Annualized Basis, both of which are flat. This outlook suggests that more sophisticated investors do not believe in a sustained breakout of the ATH.

強調這種短期不確定性是CME開放興趣和年度化基礎，它們都是平坦的。這種前景表明，更複雜的投資者不相信ATH的持續突破。

Hence, investors are advised to exercise caution in the short term as Bitcoin’s price could hit a new ATH and still trigger a brutal sell-off.

因此，建議投資者在短期內謹慎行事，因為比特幣的價格可能達到新的ATH，並且仍然觸發殘酷的拋售。

Investors are advised to heed the technical analysis signals in the short term as they could determine the immediate price trend.

建議投資者在短期內註意技術分析信號，因為他們可以確定立即的價格趨勢。