超流動性價格預測：應對拋售壓力並尋找機會

儘管網絡增長，但價格仍在下滑，Hyperliquid 面臨著一個關鍵時刻。它能承受拋售壓力並反彈嗎？讓我們深入探討一下起作用的因素。

Hyperliquid Price Prediction: Navigating Selling Pressure and Finding Opportunity

超流動性價格預測：應對拋售壓力並尋找機會

Hyperliquid, a decentralized exchange (DEX), is currently facing a fascinating tug-of-war. While on-chain metrics suggest undervaluation and network growth remains consistent, the token's price continues to experience downward pressure. Is this a buying opportunity or a sign of deeper structural issues? Let's delve into the key factors influencing Hyperliquid's price and explore potential future scenarios.

Hyperliquid，一個去中心化交易所（DEX），目前正面臨著一場令人著迷的拉鋸戰。雖然鏈上指標表明估值被低估且網絡增長保持一致，但代幣的價格繼續承受下行壓力。這是買入機會還是更深層次結構性問題的跡象？讓我們深入研究影響 Hyperliquid 價格的關鍵因素並探索未來潛在的場景。

On-Chain Strength vs. Technical Weakness

鏈上優勢與技術弱點

Recent analysis highlights a divergence between Hyperliquid's on-chain fundamentals and its technical chart. Despite rising revenue, exceeding $3.6 million monthly, the token's price has been retracing. This suggests that the market may be undervaluing Hyperliquid's underlying strength. As McKenna points out, the supply-weighted P/E ratio indicates HYPE is more undervalued at $39 than it was at $13. Historically, such mismatches have preceded strong recoveries.

最近的分析凸顯了 Hyperliquid 的鏈上基本面與其技術圖表之間的差異。儘管收入不斷增長，每月超過 360 萬美元，但代幣的價格卻一直在回落。這表明市場可能低估了 Hyperliquid 的潛在實力。正如 McKenna 指出的那樣，供給加權市盈率表明 HYPE 的估值在 39 美元時比 13 美元時更被低估。從歷史上看，這種錯配先於強勁復甦。

However, technical charts paint a less optimistic picture. Trader Tim's analysis reveals a clear downtrend, with Hyperliquid consistently posting lower highs and lower lows. The price currently hovers around $39, facing strong resistance between $41 and $49, while support zones lie near $36 and $31. A breakout above $49 is crucial to shift the market structure bullish.

然而，技術圖表描繪的情況卻不太樂觀。交易員蒂姆的分析揭示了明顯的下降趨勢，Hyperliquid 不斷創下更低的高點和更低的低點。目前價格徘徊在 39 美元左右，面臨 41 至 49 美元之間的強勁阻力，而支撐區域位於 36 至 31 美元附近。突破 49 美元對於市場結構轉為看漲至關重要。

Selling Pressure and Market Correction

拋售壓力和市場調整

Adding to the complexity, Hyperliquid's broader chart structure indicates correction patterns in line with the broader DEX sector. Trader Koala's visual formation suggests that the token remains within a downward leg, with the next key zone of demand projected around the $22 to $25 range. Short-term relief rallies are likely to be sold into, emphasizing the need for defensive positioning.

更複雜的是，Hyperliquid 更廣泛的圖表結構表明了與更廣泛的 DEX 行業一致的修正模式。交易員 Koala 的視覺形態表明該代幣仍處於下行區間，下一個關鍵需求區域預計在 22 至 25 美元範圍內。短期緩解反彈可能會被拋售，強調防禦性定位的必要性。

Furthermore, it's worth noting the broader market context. Bitcoin's sluggish performance and selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs) might be indirectly impacting Hyperliquid. Glassnode data reveals that LTHs have been offloading Bitcoin since the end of June, with whales being the primary distributors. This cautious sentiment in the broader crypto market could be contributing to the selling pressure on Hyperliquid.

此外，值得注意的是更廣泛的市場背景。比特幣的低迷表現和長期持有者（LTH）的拋售壓力可能會間接影響 Hyperliquid。 Glassnode 數據顯示，自 6 月底以來，LTH 一直在拋售比特幣，其中鯨魚是主要分銷商。更廣泛的加密貨幣市場的這種謹慎情緒可能會加劇 Hyperliquid 的拋售壓力。

Potential Rebound and Key Levels to Watch

潛在反彈和值得關注的關鍵水平

Despite the challenges, there's a glimmer of hope. Nehal's technical outlook frames the ongoing decline as part of a larger accumulation cycle. The Hyperliquid chart suggests a potential rebound towards the mid-range levels between $45 and $50 if the support zone near $30 holds firm. This recovery projection aligns with volume profile data showing dense liquidity clusters near those upper bands.

儘管面臨挑戰，但仍有一線希望。尼爾的技術前景將持續下跌視為更大積累週期的一部分。 Hyperliquid 圖表表明，如果 30 美元附近的支撐區域保持堅挺，則可能反彈至 45 美元至 50 美元之間的中間水平。這一複蘇預測與成交量概況數據一致，顯示在這些上限附近存在密集的流動性集群。

The $30 to $32 range now acts as a key defense line, while resistance near $45 to $50 remains the barrier to reclaiming momentum. Consistent revenue growth and stable network activity keep the medium-term structure constructive rather than broken.

30 至 32 美元區間現在是關鍵防線，而 45 至 50 美元附近的阻力位仍然是恢復勢頭的障礙。持續的收入增長和穩定的網絡活動使中期結構保持建設性而不是破壞。

Whale Activity and Market Sentiment

鯨魚活動和市場情緒

The activities of prominent whales, like James Wynn and Machi Big Brother, also influence market sentiment. While recent liquidations of these traders might raise concerns, their continued involvement in the Hyperliquid platform suggests a belief in its long-term potential. The platform's aim to re-attract whales after liquidation events can boost the perp DEX, which increased its open interest to $7.7B.

James Wynn 和 Machi Big Brother 等著名鯨魚的活動也會影響市場情緒。雖然這些交易商最近的清算可能會引起擔憂，但他們對 Hyperliquid 平台的持續參與表明了對其長期潛力的信心。該平台的目標是在清算事件後重新吸引鯨魚，這可以提振持久 DEX，從而將其未平倉合約增加至 $7.7B。

Final Thoughts: A Bumpy Road Ahead, But Potential Remains

最後的想法：前方道路坎坷，但潛力依然存在

Hyperliquid's price prediction is a complex equation with conflicting signals. On-chain strength suggests undervaluation, while technical charts and broader market sentiment indicate continued selling pressure. The platform's next move hinges on whether it can hold key support levels and attract renewed accumulation. The risky nature of perp DEX trading is evident, but Hyperliquid's commitment to recovery and whale activity offer glimmers of optimism.

Hyperliquid 的價格預測是一個帶有相互衝突信號的複雜方程。鏈上強勢表明估值被低估，而技術圖表和更廣泛的市場情緒表明持續的拋售壓力。該平台的下一步行動取決於它能否守住關鍵支撐位並吸引新的吸籌。 Perp DEX 交易的風險本質是顯而易見的，但 Hyperliquid 對複蘇和鯨魚活動的承諾帶來了一絲樂觀的曙光。

So, is Hyperliquid a diamond in the rough or a falling knife? Only time will tell. But one thing's for sure: keeping a close eye on those key support and resistance levels, along with broader market trends, is crucial for anyone navigating this volatile landscape. Happy trading, y'all!

那麼，Hyperliquid到底是未加工的鑽石還是一把掉落的刀呢？只有時間才能證明一切。但有一點是肯定的：密切關注這些關鍵支撐位和阻力位以及更廣泛的市場趨勢，對於任何應對這一動盪格局的人來說至關重要。祝大家交易愉快！