海耶斯，耐心和加密：為什麼長游戲有回報

亞瑟·海耶斯（Arthur Hayes）敦促加密投資者擁抱耐心，強調宏觀經濟因素，並有可能在貨幣政策中加劇了長時間的牛市。

Hayes, Patience, and Crypto: Why the Long Game Pays Off

海耶斯，耐心和加密：為什麼長游戲有回報

In the ever-turbulent world of crypto, where fortunes can be made and lost in the blink of an eye, Arthur Hayes is preaching a virtue often in short supply: patience. With the market experiencing sideways action, Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, is urging investors to take a step back and consider the bigger picture.

在不斷干擾的加密世界中，可以眨眼間就可以賺錢和浪費財富，亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）經常宣講一種供不應求的美德：耐心。隨著市場經歷側向行動，Bitmex的聯合創始人海斯（Hayes）敦促投資者退後一步，並考慮更大的前景。

Hayes' Macroeconomic Outlook: A Bull Run Until 2026?

海斯的宏觀經濟前景：公牛直到2026年？

Hayes isn't just offering feel-good advice; he's grounding his perspective in a sweeping macroeconomic analysis. He believes that the continued money printing by central banks, particularly aggressive monetary expansion under a potential Trump administration, could fuel a crypto bull cycle extending well into 2026. This outlook contrasts sharply with widespread pessimism, suggesting that the current consolidation is merely the prelude to a powerful surge.

海耶斯不僅提供良好的建議；他將自己的觀點紮根於宏偉的宏觀經濟分析中。他認為，中央銀行的持續打印，特別是在特朗普政府的潛在貨幣擴張下的進取的貨幣擴張，可能會促進加密公牛週期，延伸到2026年。這種觀點與廣泛的悲觀主義形成鮮明對比，這表明目前的鞏固僅僅是prelude純粹的序幕。

“Governments will continue to print money, and this will support cryptos well beyond 2025,” Hayes asserted. He points to the alignment of U.S. politics and monetary policy as creating a highly favorable environment for Bitcoin and select altcoins. Trump’s agenda, including stimulus-like spending and tax cuts, will necessitate aggressive money creation, debasing fiat currencies and increasing the value of scarce assets like Bitcoin.

海斯斷言：“政府將繼續打印資金，這將支持2025年以後的加密貨幣。”他指出，美國政治和貨幣政策的一致性是為比特幣和精選山寨幣創造一個非常有利的環境。特朗普的議程，包括刺激般的支出和減稅，將需要創造積極的貨幣，使菲亞特貨幣貶低並增加像比特幣這樣的稀缺資產的價值。

The Impatience Problem: A Misfreading of the Market

不耐煩的問題：市場的錯誤閱讀

Hayes also addresses a common flaw among crypto investors: chronic impatience. “People expect an immediate explosion after every macro or technical announcement. This is a misreading,” he emphasizes. The current cycle, influenced by exogenous factors like global monetary policy, demands more psychological and financial resilience. It's not about getting rich quick; it's about strategic adaptation and understanding the long-term potential.

海耶斯還解決了加密投資者中一個常見的缺陷：慢性不耐煩。他強調：“人們期望在每個宏觀或技術公告後立即爆炸。這是一種誤讀。”當前週期受到全球貨幣政策等外源性因素的影響，需要更多的心理和財務復原力。這不是要快速致富；這是關於戰略適應和理解長期潛力。

Beyond Bitcoin: Stablecoins and Altcoin Opportunities

超越比特幣：Stablecoins和Altcoin機會

While Bitcoin remains a focal point, Hayes also spotlights stablecoins as a cornerstone of U.S. economic strategy. He describes them as a “Trojan horse” that can funnel trillions of dollars into U.S. Treasury markets, bypassing traditional banking constraints. This influx of capital could have massive downstream effects across decentralized finance (DeFi) and altcoin markets, creating unexpected opportunities for solid and undervalued alternative assets.

儘管比特幣仍然是焦點，但海耶斯還將穩定幣視為美國經濟戰略的基石。他將它們描述為“特洛伊木馬”，可以向美國財政市場匯入數万億美元，繞過傳統的銀行業務限制。這種資本的湧入可能會在分散的金融（DEFI）和Altcoin市場中產生巨大的下游影響，從而為固體和低估的替代資產創造意外的機會。

He highlights DeFi protocols like Hyperliquid and EtherFi as examples of projects positioned to benefit from stablecoin-driven liquidity, suggesting some could rally significantly if adoption trends play out as expected.

他強調了諸如Hyproliquid和Etherfi之類的Defi協議是從Stablecoin驅動的流動性中受益的項目的例子，這表明如果採用趨勢如預期的那樣，有些人可能會大大召集。

Bitcoin's Long-Term Potential: $700,000 and Beyond?

比特幣的長期潛力：$ 700,000及以後？

Despite Bitcoin's recent sideways action, Hayes remains bullish on its long-term potential. He sees the current consolidation as the middle of the cycle, with 2025–2026 marking the true peak of the bull market. His long-term target for Bitcoin is $700,000 per coin if liquidity flows unfold as he expects. He believes the next two years will showcase Bitcoin’s fixed supply advantage as governments expand credit and investors seek safe havens from weakening fiat.

儘管比特幣最近採取了橫向行動，海耶斯仍然看漲其長期潛力。他認為目前的合併是周期的中間，2025 - 2026年標誌著牛市的真實峰值。如果他的期望，他對比特幣的長期目標是每枚硬幣700,000美元。他認為，隨著政府擴大信譽，未來兩年將展示比特幣的固定供應優勢，而投資者則尋求避風港削弱菲亞特。

The Takeaway: Patience is a Virtue (Especially in Crypto)

要點：耐心是一種美德（尤其是在加密貨幣中）

So, what's the bottom line? Arthur Hayes is telling us to chill out and play the long game. Crypto isn't a sprint; it's a marathon fueled by global monetary policy. Forget the Lambo dreams and focus on strategic investments, psychological resilience, and a deep understanding of the macroeconomic landscape. And hey, if you bought Bitcoin six months ago and are feeling impatient, just remember what Hayes said: those who bought it two, three, five, or ten years ago are laughing all the way to the bank. Now, go grab a coffee, take a deep breath, and enjoy the ride. The best is yet to come!

那麼，最重要的是什麼？亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）告訴我們放鬆身心並進行漫長的比賽。加密不是衝刺。這是全球貨幣政策推動的馬拉鬆比賽。忘記蘭博的夢想，專注於戰略投資，心理韌性以及對宏觀經濟景觀的深刻理解。嘿，如果您六個月前購買了比特幣，並且感到不耐煩，請記住Hayes所說的話：那些購買了兩個，三，五，五或十年前的人，他們一直在笑到銀行。現在，去喝杯咖啡，深吸一口氣，享受旅程。最好的是尚未到來！