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加密貨幣新聞文章
Glassnode’s Latest On-Chain Metrics Reveal Bitcoin (BTC) Market Phase Is in a Delicate State of Equilibrium
2025/01/11 19:30
Glassnode’s latest on-chain metrics provide valuable insights into the current state of the Bitcoin market. These metrics paint a picture of an intriguing equilibrium, where investor confidence is high, trading activity is reduced, and the network remains stable. However, this stability raises questions about whether Bitcoin is preparing for a breakout or setting the stage for a quieter period.
1. Surging Long-Term Holder Confidence: A Sign of Maturing Bullishness
According to Glassnode’s recent data, Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are actively accumulating Bitcoin, indicating a growing confidence in its long-term value proposition. These holders, defined as those who have held Bitcoin for over 155 days, now control a large portion of the total supply.
This trend suggests a shift away from speculative short-term trading, with more Bitcoin being locked away in long-term storage. While this could be a bullish sign, it also raises questions about whether the market is setting itself up for another speculative rush in the future.
2. Declining “Liveliness” Metric: Bullish Sign or Market Stagnation?
Another interesting metric observed by Glassnode is the "Liveliness" of Bitcoin, which is measured by the ratio of Spent Transaction Output (STH) to the total supply. This metric has been consistently declining, indicating that fewer Bitcoin transactions are occurring and more assets are being held long-term.
While this could be seen as a bullish sign, indicating reduced market volatility and a shift towards value storage, it could also raise concerns about market stagnation. Is the market truly stabilizing, or is Bitcoin simply waiting for an external catalyst to reignite movement?
3. Bitcoin in a State of Equilibrium: Setting Up for a Breakout or Prolonged Consolidation?
According to Glassnode's observations, Bitcoin is currently in a "state of equilibrium," where the buying and selling pressures are balanced, leading to a period of relative price stability.
However, this stability poses a crucial question: will it eventually lead to a major breakout or a lengthy period of consolidation? Without a surge in demand or an influx of new capital, Bitcoin's price is likely to remain stuck within a tight range. Could this equilibrium be the calm before the next big price move, or is Bitcoin entering a holding pattern that may last longer than expected?
4. Active Address Growth: Key to Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run?
Glassnode's analysis also highlights a positive trend in the number of active addresses, which measure the quantity of unique Bitcoin addresses transacting. According to their observations, this metric has been on the rise.
This increasing engagement with the Bitcoin network could be a sign of growing adoption, which has the potential to pave the way for a possible price surge. With both retail and institutional players showing interest, could the steady increase in active addresses be the first indication of a larger wave of demand—one that might propel Bitcoin towards new highs?
5. Bitcoin's Hashrate and Network Health: Resilience as a Key to Future Growth
Throughout the recent market周期, Bitcoin's network hashrate has continued to climb, reaching new all-time highs. This serves as a strong indication of a robust and secure blockchain. As more miners commit vast resources to securing the network, Bitcoin's decentralized nature becomes even more powerful.
Generally, this is viewed as a bullish indicator, suggesting continued confidence in the network's future. Could a strong network security infrastructure be the cornerstone for future growth, or is it simply an essential component without which Bitcoin cannot thrive?
6. Market Saturation Risk: Is Bitcoin's Supply Becoming Too Scarce for New Entrants?
While Bitcoin's value has soared in recent years, Glassnode raises concerns about market saturation. As LTHs continue to accumulate more Bitcoin, the supply available for new investors continues to dwindle.
This scarcity could lead to liquidity issues and result in sharp price movements when demand picks up. Could this scarcity create a barrier to entry for new investors, or will it be the catalyst for a massive price rally as institutions and high-net-worth individuals vie for a piece of the remaining supply?
7. Glassnode's Price Prediction Indicators: Will Bitcoin Break Through Key Resistance or Fall Back?
According to Glassnode's on-chain metrics, Bitcoin may be approaching a critical juncture. While key support levels around $87,000 to $90,000 are holding firm, the absence of fresh demand could make it difficult for Bitcoin to push past resistance levels, especially the psychological $100,000 mark.
Is this the moment where Bitcoin consolidates or falls back, or is the market simply waiting for the next big trigger to send prices soaring?
Conclusion: Is Bitcoin on the Verge of a New Chapter, or Is This a Waiting Game?
Glassnode's analysis suggests that Bitcoin is at a pivotal point. With LTHs in control, active addresses on the rise, and the network continuing to
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