財政主導地位構成威脅，增強了比特幣的對沖作用

渣打銀行的傑夫·肯德里克強調，美國財政主導地位的風險日益增大，債務和赤字不斷上升，預示著一條不可持續的道路。這種情況可能為比特幣創造有利的條件，因為比特幣兌美元的價格與美國國債殖利率曲線的潛在影響具有很強的相關性，包括收益率差距擴大、通膨盈虧平衡增加和期限溢價上升。肯德里克表示，比特幣可以對沖去美元化和在財政主導下對 UST 市場信心下降的風險。

Fiscal Dominance Looms, Enhancing Bitcoin's Appeal as a Hedge

財政主導地位迫在眉睫，增強了比特幣作為對沖工具的吸引力

As the United States grapples with mounting debt and deficits, the risk of fiscal dominance is escalating. This economic phenomenon poses a significant threat to monetary policy independence, potentially undermining central banks' ability to control inflation. According to Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered, fiscal dominance is a harbinger of good news for Bitcoin (BTC-USD).

隨著美國努力應對不斷增加的債務和赤字，財政主導地位的風險正在升級。這種經濟現象對貨幣政策的獨立性構成重大威脅，可能削弱央行控制通膨的能力。渣打銀行的 Geoff Kendrick 表示，財政主導地位對比特幣（BTC-USD）來說是好消息的先兆。

Understanding Fiscal Dominance

了解財政主導地位

Fiscal dominance occurs when government fiscal actions overpower the autonomy of monetary policy. This dynamic forces central banks to accommodate government spending, compromising their ability to manage inflation effectively.

當政府的財政行動壓倒貨幣政策的自主權時，就會出現財政主導地位。這種動態迫使央行適應政府支出，從而損害了它們有效管理通膨的能力。

Implications for the Treasury Yield Curve

對國債殖利率曲線的影響

Fiscal dominance has several implications for the Treasury yield curve:

財政主導地位對國債殖利率曲線有幾個影響：

• Widening yield spread between 2-year (US2Y) bills and 10-year (US10Y) notes, resulting in a steeper yield gap.
• Greater increase in inflation breakevens compared to inflation-adjusted yields.
• Higher term premium, reflecting investors' demand for additional compensation for holding longer-term bonds.

Bitcoin's Correlation to Fiscal Dominance

2年期（US2Y）票據和10年期（US10Y）票據之間的收益率利差擴大，導致收益率差距更大。更高，反映出投資者對額外補償的需求持有長期債券。

Kendrick emphasizes the strong correlation between the price of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and the aforementioned effects of fiscal dominance. He believes that in a scenario of US fiscal dominance, BTC would serve as an effective hedge against de-dollarization and declining confidence in the US Treasury market.

肯德里克強調比特幣（BTC-USD）的價格與上述財政主導地位的影響之間存在著強烈的相關性。他認為，在美國財政主導的情況下，比特幣將成為對抗去美元化和美國公債市場信心下降的有效對沖工具。

JPMorgan's View

摩根大通的觀點

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, a long-time Bitcoin critic, shares Kendrick's concerns about fiscal dominance. He recently highlighted the US economy's dependence on government spending, acknowledging the inflationary risks associated with a debt-fueled economy.

摩根大通執行長傑米戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）是一位長期比特幣批評者，他與肯德里克一樣對財政主導地位感到擔憂。他最近強調了美國經濟對政府支出的依賴，並承認債務驅動型經濟帶來的通膨風險。

Additional Factors Favoring Bitcoin

有利於比特幣的其他因素

Standard Chartered's note highlights that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) tends to perform well relative to traditional financial assets when the banking system is under stress or when central banks engage in quantitative easing. However, heightened geopolitical risk remains a concern for the token.

渣打銀行的報告強調，當銀行體系面臨壓力或央行實施量化寬鬆時，比特幣（BTC-USD）相對於傳統金融資產往往表現良好。然而，地緣政治風險加劇仍是該代幣的一個擔憂。

The Impact of a Trump Victory

川普勝利的影響

Kendrick believes that a presidential election win by Donald Trump would be beneficial for Bitcoin (BTC-USD). He anticipates "looser regulation and the approval of US spot ETFs" under a Trump administration.

肯德里克認為，唐納德·川普贏得總統選舉將對比特幣（BTC-USD）有利。他預計川普政府將「放鬆監管並批准美國現貨 ETF」。

Price Targets

價格目標

Kendrick reiterates his price targets for Bitcoin (BTC-USD): $150K by the end of 2024 and $200K by the end of 2025. The average SA analyst maintains a Buy rating for BTC, with one Strong Buy, nine Buy, three Hold, and one Sell recommendation.

Kendrick 重申了他對比特幣(BTC-USD) 的目標價：到2024 年底為15 萬美元，到2025 年底為20 萬美元。 SA 分析師平均維持BTC 的買入評級，其中1 人強烈買入， 9 人買入，3 人持有，以及一筆銷售推薦。

Current Market Conditions

目前的市場狀況

As of Saturday afternoon trading, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading at $61.3K, down 13% month-over-month but up 45% year-to-date and 122% from a year ago. BTC had reached an all-time high of over $73K in March, but has since retreated amid investor expectations of interest rate hikes in response to persistent inflation.

截至週六下午交易，比特幣 (BTC-USD) 交易價格為 6.13 萬美元，環比下跌 13%，但年初至今上漲 45%，較去年同期上漲 122​​%。 BTC 在 3 月曾創下超過 7.3 萬美元的歷史新高，但此後由於投資者預期升息以應對持續通膨，比特幣價格回落。

Conclusion

結論

The growing risk of fiscal dominance in the US, combined with other factors such as a potential Trump election win, suggests that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) may emerge as a valuable hedge against economic uncertainty. Its strong correlation to the effects of fiscal dominance and its performance under stress conditions make it a compelling investment in the current market environment.

美國財政主導地位的風險日益增加，再加上川普可能獲勝等其他因素，顯示比特幣（BTC-USD）可能成為對抗經濟不確定性的寶貴對沖工具。它與財政主導地位的影響及其在壓力條件下的表現密切相關，使其成為當前市場環境下一項引人注目的投資。