聯準會利率是比特幣未來走勢的關鍵

分析師表示，美國高收益率是預測比特幣能否突破歷史高點的關鍵指標。如果利率跌破6-7%，可能預示BTC 將創下可持續的歷史新高，到2024 年第四季或2025 年第二季可能達到10 萬美元。導致比特幣價格下降削減，這通常會導致對比特幣等風險資產的投資增加。然而，市場波動和即將到來的美國大選可能會在未來幾個月帶來不確定性。

Federal Reserve Interest Rates: A Pivotal Indicator for Bitcoin's Ascent

聯準會利率：比特幣上漲的關鍵指標

In the realm of financial asset prediction, the enigmatic cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) has presented analysts with a formidable challenge. However, a seasoned market observer has identified a single metric that holds the key to unlocking Bitcoin's trajectory: the United States Federal Reserve's high yield rate.

在金融資產預測領域，神秘的加密貨幣比特幣（BTC）為分析師帶來了巨大的挑戰。然而，一位經驗豐富的市場觀察家發現了一個單一指標，它是解鎖比特幣發展軌跡的關鍵：聯準會的高收益率。

"Monitoring the U.S. high yield rate is critical," asserted Timothy Peterson, founder and investment manager of Cane Island Alternative Advisors. "Sustained movement below 6 or 7% is a robust indicator that Bitcoin is poised to surpass its all-time high."

Cane Island Alternative Advisors 創始人兼投資經理 Timothy Peterson 表示：“監控美國的高收益率至關重要。” “持續低於 6% 或 7% 的走勢是一個強有力的指標，表明比特幣有望超越其歷史高點。”

The high yield rate, a measure of the interest rates charged on corporate bonds with a higher risk of default, stood at 7.54% at the time of this report's publication.

高收益率（衡量違約風險較高的公司債利率的指標）在本報告發佈時為 7.54%。

Peterson's analysis suggests that a decline in yield rates to within the "6 or 7%" range would ignite a surge in Bitcoin's value, potentially reaching the coveted $100,000 mark by the fourth quarter of 2024 or early 2025.

彼得森的分析表明，收益率下降至「6％或7％」範圍內將引發比特幣價值飆升，有可能在2024年第四季或2025年初達到令人垂涎的10萬美元大關。

Historically, rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have prompted a corresponding decrease in high yield rates. A recent survey conducted by Reuters revealed that nearly two-thirds of economists anticipate such a move at the September meeting.

從歷史上看，聯準會降息會促使高收益率相應下降。路透社最近進行的一項調查顯示，近三分之二的經濟學家預計在 9 月的會議上將採取這項措施。

This significance stems from the perception of interest rates as a barometer for investors seeking yield in safe-haven assets like bonds and term deposits. As rates fall, investors are compelled to explore riskier alternatives such as Bitcoin in pursuit of higher returns.

這種重要性源自於人們將利率視為尋求債券和定期存款等避險資產收益的投資者的晴雨表。隨著利率下降，投資者被迫探索比特幣等風險較高的替代品，以追求更高的回報。

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin hovered around $61,871, marking a 5.08% decline over the preceding 30 days. Peterson cautioned that the period between September and October tends to be characterized by volatility and market flatness.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣徘徊在 61,871 美元附近，過去 30 天下跌 5.08%。彼得森警告說，九月至十月期間的特點往往是波動性和市場穩定。

The upcoming U.S. election further compounds the uncertainty, Peterson elaborated, as the race for the presidency adds an additional layer of unpredictability ahead of the November 4 polling day.

彼得森闡述道，即將到來的美國大選進一步加劇了不確定性，因為 11 月 4 日投票日之前的總統競選增加了一層不可預測性。

However, crypto analyst Scott Melker, known as "The Wolf of All Streets," holds a contrasting view, opining that interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve do not universally favor assets outside of fixed-income investments.

然而，被稱為「各路之狼」的加密貨幣分析師斯科特·梅爾克(Scott Melker)卻持有相反的觀點，他認為聯準會降息並不普遍有利於固定收益投資以外的資產。

"The popular assumption that a Fed pivot is inherently beneficial for markets is flawed," Melker stated. "Rate cuts have frequently preceded significant market declines in the broader financial landscape."

梅爾克表示：“人們普遍認為聯準會轉向本質上對市場有利的假設是有缺陷的。” “降息經常發生在更廣泛的金融領域大幅市場下跌之前。”

This analysis underscores the complexity of financial forecasting, particularly when it comes to the unpredictable nature of cryptocurrency markets. It is crucial for investors to approach their decisions with due diligence and a comprehensive understanding of the economic and market forces that shape investment outcomes.

該分析強調了財務預測的複雜性，特別是當涉及加密貨幣市場的不可預測性時。對於投資者來說，透過盡職調查並全面了解影響投資結果的經濟和市場力量來做出決定至關重要。