聯準會降息報告：下一步是什麼？

為 18 日的大事件做好準備以下是您需要了解的內容：市場預期 50:50，我們有 50% 的機會看到降息 0.25%

Seasoned crypto trader Doctor Profit, known for his accurate market analysis, has shared his bold predictions regarding the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 18.

以其準確的市場分析而聞名的經驗豐富的加密貨幣交易員 Doctor Profit 分享了他對即將於 9 月 18 日召開的聯準會會議的大膽預測。

While the market anticipates a 50:50 chance of either a 0.25% or 0.50% interest rate cut, Doctor Profit strongly believes the Fed will opt for the latter. Here's his reasoning and what it means for Bitcoin, stocks, and how to manage your portfolio.

儘管市場預計降息 0.25% 或 0.50% 的可能性為 50:50，但 Doctor Profit 堅信聯準會將選擇後者。以下是他的推理以及這對比特幣、股票以及如何管理您的投資組合意味著什麼。

Anticipating a 0.50% Cut

預計降價 0.50%

Doctor Profit, who predicted two months ago that the Fed would announce a 0.50% rate cut in September, is now doubling down on that forecast. He points to the recent improvements in CPI and PPI numbers, which were expected and support his view that the economy is improving faster than analysts had anticipated.

普利特博士兩個月前預測聯準會將在 9 月宣布降息 0.50%，現在他的預測加倍。他指出最近消費者物價指數（CPI）和生產者物價指數（PPI）數據的改善符合預期，並支持了他的觀點，即經濟改善速度快於分析師的預期。

According to Doctor Profit, a 0.25% cut would be too little for the current economic scenario. He warns that if the Fed opts for the smaller cut, it could trigger another "Blood Monday," referring to the market crash observed a few weeks ago.

Doctor Profit 表示，對於目前的經濟狀況來說，0.25% 的削減幅度太小了。他警告說，如果聯準會選擇小幅降息，可能會引發另一場“血腥星期一”，指的是幾週前觀察到的市場崩盤。

He adds that Jerome Powell, being fully aware of the market's sensitivity, will likely present the rate cut as a response to falling inflation and a brighter economic outlook, potentially signaling more rate cuts in the future.

他補充說，傑羅姆·鮑威爾充分意識到市場的敏感性，可能會將降息作為對通膨下降和經濟前景更加光明的回應，這可能預示著未來還會有更多降息。

Bitcoin, Stocks, and the Casino

比特幣、股票和賭場

Regarding Bitcoin and stocks, Doctor Profit describes the current market as a "casino," with extreme volatility expected ahead of the Fed's decision. He maintains his positions in Bitcoin, having called for longs at $50K and $53K during Monday's crash.

關於比特幣和股票，普利特博士將當前市場描述為“賭場”，預計在美聯儲做出決定之前將出現劇烈波動。他維持比特幣頭寸，並在周一崩盤期間以 5 萬美元和 5.3 萬美元的價格買入多頭。

However, he cautions traders to prepare for "scam wicks" and manipulations on both sides. Despite the short-term volatility, he remains bullish mid-to-long term, anticipating the market to stabilize by Q3 2025.

不過，他警告交易者要為「騙局」和雙方的操縱做好準備。儘管有短期波動，但他仍然看好中長期，預計市場將在 2025 年第三季穩定下來。

He advises traders to use the fear and panic to buy more during dips, but stresses the critical importance of short-term risk management.

他建議交易者利用恐懼和恐慌在逢低買入，但強調短期風險管理的至關重要性。

Short-Term Strategy

短期策略

Emphasizing the importance of robust risk management in light of potential volatility, Dr. Profit has set stop-losses to protect his positions and advises others to do the same.

鑑於潛在的波動性，Profit 博士強調了穩健的風險管理的重要性，他設定了停損來保護自己的頭寸，並建議其他人也這樣做。

While he remains bullish on the mid-to-long-term outlook, he emphasizes managing risk carefully in the short term. His strategy involves riding any market pump triggered by a 0.50% cut while hedging against potential losses.

儘管他仍然看好中長期前景，但他強調在短期內謹慎管理風險。他的策略包括利用 0.50% 的降價引發的任何市場上漲，同時對沖潛在的損失。

Mid-Term Outlook

中期展望

Looking ahead, he is optimistic about the mid-term. He expects any short-term panic to be countered by increased money printing and cash injections into the market.

展望未來，他對中期持樂觀態度。他預計任何短期恐慌都將透過增加印鈔和向市場注入現金來應對。

He believes the economic environment will stabilize despite current volatility, leading to a more positive market trend.

他相信，儘管當前存在波動，經濟環境仍將趨於穩定，從而帶來更積極的市場趨勢。

Now, all eyes are on the September 18 Federal Reserve meeting. According to analysts, an interest rate cut might spark a Bitcoin breakout in October.

現在，所有人的目光都集中在 9 月 18 日的聯準會會議上。分析師表示，降息可能會引發比特幣在 10 月的突破。