ETH ETF 的命運取決於 SEC 的安全與大宗商品困境

美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 是否批准以太坊 ETF 現貨的決定取決於 ETH 是否被視為證券或商品。雖然 SEC 主席 Gensler 表示 ETH 不是證券，但最近的報告表明對 ETH 進行了調查。分析師認為，SEC 推遲貝萊德的申請並要求公眾提供回饋，這表明美國證券交易委員會可能會因 ETH 被歸類為證券而遭到拒絕。

Ethereum ETF Approval Hinges on SEC's Classification Dilemma: Security or Commodity?

以太坊 ETF 的批准取決於 SEC 的分類困境：證券還是商品？

The Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) approval of a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) is hanging in the balance, with the regulatory body's perception of Ethereum's (ETH) status as a security or a commodity playing a pivotal role.

美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 對現貨以太坊交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的批准懸而未決，監管機構對以太坊 (ETH) 作為證券或商品地位的看法發揮關鍵作用。

Recent Developments:

最近的發展：

In recent weeks, several reports have emerged suggesting the SEC is considering classifying Ethereum as a security. This classification would significantly impact the approval process for spot Ethereum ETFs, which are currently scheduled for review later this month.

最近幾週，有幾份報告顯示美國證券交易委員會正在考慮將以太坊歸類為證券。這種分類將極大地影響現貨以太坊 ETF 的審批流程，目前計劃於本月稍後進行審查。

Analysts at Davis Polk and Wardwell, including Associate Scott Johnsson, have analyzed BlackRock's spot Ethereum ETF filing from March 4th. Subsequently, the SEC extended the deadline for BlackRock's application to June, soliciting public feedback on whether the investment vehicle should be considered a commodity.

Davis Polk 和 Wardwell 的分析師（包括合夥人 Scott Johnsson）分析了貝萊德 3 月 4 日起提交的以太坊 ETF 現貨文件。隨後，SEC 將貝萊德申請的截止日期延長至 6 月，就該投資工具是否應被視為商品徵求公眾意見。

"The obvious purpose is to potentially deny on the basis that these spot filings are improperly filed as commodity-based trust shares and do not qualify if they are holding a security," stated Johnsson.

約翰遜表示：“明顯的目的是潛在地否認這些現場備案文件被不當作為基於商品的信託股票備案，並且如果它們持有證券，則不符合資格。”

SEC's Stance and Market Outlook:

SEC 的立場與市場展望：

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas characterized the SEC's filing as "deeply buried in legal jargon." However, he maintained his skepticism about the regulator's willingness to approve a spot Ether ETF, stating that the chances were "extremely low."

彭博 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 將 SEC 的文件描述為「深藏在法律術語中」。不過，他對監管機構是否願意批准現貨以太坊 ETF 持懷疑態度，稱這種可能性「極低」。

The SEC has a May 23rd deadline to approve or reject VanEck's spot Ether ETF application, the first of several pending applications in the pipeline. If denied, this decision could set a precedent for similar applications from Invesco Galaxy, Hashdex, ARK 21Shares, Fidelity, and BlackRock.

SEC 的最後期限是 5 月 23 日，批准或拒絕 VanEck 的現貨以太 ETF 申請，這是正在審理中的幾項待決申請中的第一個。如果被拒絕，這項決定可能會為 Invesco Galaxy、Hashdex、ARK 21Shares、Fidelity 和 BlackRock 的類似申請開創先例。

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck expressed his own doubts about the application's approval this month.

VanEck 執行長 Jan van Eck 本月對該申請的批准表達了自己的懷疑。

Ethereum's Price Performance:

以太幣的價格表現：

The price of Ethereum, the world's largest cryptocurrency, has faced significant selling pressure over the past month, struggling to maintain a value above $3,000. At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading just above its crucial support level of $2,900, with a failure to hold this level potentially triggering a further 10% correction.

全球最大的加密貨幣以太幣的價格在過去一個月面臨巨大的拋售壓力，難以維持在 3000 美元以上。截至撰寫本文時，以太坊的交易價格略高於 2,900 美元的關鍵支撐位，如果未能守住該水平，可能會引發進一步 10% 的回調。

Crypto Analyst's Perspective:

加密貨幣分析師的觀點：

In his latest analysis, crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe suggests that Ethereum is nearing the final stages of its correction. He predicts a further decline of approximately 10% before the asset reaches a higher timeframe support level. However, he remains optimistic about the future of Ethereum, suggesting better times may be on the horizon in the coming weeks.

加密貨幣分析師 Michael van de Poppe 在他的最新分析中表示，以太坊正接近其調整的最後階段。他預計，在資產達到更高的時間框架支撐水準之前，還會進一步下跌約 10%。然而，他對以太坊的未來仍然持樂觀態度，並暗示未來幾週可能會出現更好的時期。

Conclusion:

結論：

The SEC's decision on spot Ethereum ETFs will hinge heavily on its classification of ETH as a security or a commodity. Despite public statements from Chair Gary Gensler suggesting ETH is not a security, reports indicate an ongoing investigation into the asset. The market is eagerly awaiting the SEC's verdict, as it will have a significant impact on the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies and the approval process for Ethereum ETFs.

SEC 對以太坊 ETF 現貨的決定將在很大程度上取決於其將 ETH 分類為證券還是商品。儘管主席 Gary Gensler 公開聲明暗示 ETH 不是證券，但有報告表明對該資產的調查正在進行中。市場正在熱切等待 SEC 的裁決，因為它將對加密貨幣的監管環境和以太坊 ETF 的審批流程產生重大影響。