現在是我見過的最分裂的市場。

加密貨幣週期每年都在發展，一切都在變化。

Right now is the most divided market I've ever seen.

現在是我見過的最分裂的市場。

Bulls see this as the final dip before altseason takes off.

公牛將其視為替代賽季前的最後一次下降。

Bears insist $BTC bull run is finished.

Bears堅持$ BTC BULL RUN已完成。

Here’s exactly how the market could reverse and why?

這正是市場的逆轉方式以及為什麼

Cryptocurrency cycles are evolving yearly, and everything is changing.

加密貨幣週期每年都在發展，一切都在變化。

We've already seen what happened in this cycle:

我們已經看到了這個週期中發生的事情：

- Meme coins replaced Altseason.

- 模因硬幣取代了Altseason。

- Ethereum is trading at the same price as 4 years ago, still not updating its ATH.

- 以太坊以與4年前相同的價格進行交易，但仍未更新其ATH。

- Bitcoin managed to test the ATH, as well as the $100,000 mark, but failed to consolidate.

- 比特幣設法測試了ATH以及100,000美元的大關，但未能合併。

This is what it means ?

這就是它的含義?

▫️ Option 1

▫️選項1

As you already understood, this cycle is different from the previous ones.

正如您已經了解的那樣，這個週期與以前的周期不同。

In the previous cycle, there was a lack of investment and savings from institutions, countries, and large companies. Now the picture is different, they are all actively accumulating BTC and other coins.

在上一個週期中，機構，國家和大公司缺乏投資和儲蓄。現在，圖片是不同的，它們都積極積累BTC和其他硬幣。

BlackRock: 577,919 BTC

貝萊德：577,919 BTC

MicroStrategy: 330,645 BTC

MicroStrategy：330,645 BTC

Countries:

國家：

Long-term attention and pressure on $BTC will increase, which will lead to the following:

長期關注和對$ BTC的壓力將增加，這將導致以下內容：

- Bitcoin dominance will increase.

- 比特幣優勢將增加。

- Bitcoin will be a leader, like gold, or a cut above.

- 比特幣將成為領導者，例如黃金或上面的切割。

- The spills / kickbacks will not be so serious, as they will be actively bought out.

- 溢出 /回扣不會那麼嚴重，因為它們將被積極收購。

But such movements only lead to a rejection of altcoins, as well as a decrease in attention to them

但是，這樣的運動只會導致拒絕山寨幣，以及對它們的關注下降

Altcoins are getting less liquidity and interest.

山寨幣的流動性和興趣較小。

None of the sectors can actively accumulate liquidity because more assets are in the market and they are distributed.

由於更多的資產在市場上並且分配了更多的資產，因此沒有一個部門可以積極積累流動性。

This can be seen on the charts when comparing the MEME sector and DeFi sector:

在比較模因部門和偏見部門時，可以在圖表上看到這一點：

- Last cycle: memecoin market was half that of DeFi.

- 最後一個週期：Memecoin市場是Defi的一半。

- This cycle: memecoin market cap equals or exceeds DeFi's.

- 此週期：Memecoin市值等於或超過Defi。

This stops one of the sectors from skyrocketing.

這阻止了其中一個扇區的飛漲。

This cycle is really different:

這個週期確實不同：

- Bitcoin dominance continues to increase as more people / companies / countries choose to hold capital (which is key) in Bitcoin

- 隨著越來越多的人 /公司 /國家選擇持有比特幣中的資本（這是關鍵），比特幣的優勢繼續增加

- The fate of altcoins will depend on trends, whichever goes viral faster will be the category that gets pumped (mini bull)

- 山寨幣的命運將取決於趨勢，以更快的速度流行的趨勢將是被抽水的類別（迷你公牛）

Previous cycle scenarios are no longer applicable, we need to adapt to what we have now.

以前的周期場景不再適用，我們需要適應我們現在擁有的東西。

▫️Option 2

▫️Option2

We are still in the process of determining when the correction will occur.

我們仍在確定何時進行校正的過程中。

Bitcoin needs to go through stages of accumulation, decline, despair, so that then there will be growth, which not many will wait for

比特幣需要經歷積累，衰落，絕望的階段，這樣就會有增長，沒有多少人會等待

Bitcoin's recent decline stands at just -24.82% below its all-time high, a relatively small drop.

比特幣最近的下降幅度僅比其歷史最高高的24.82％，跌幅相對較小。

In earlier bull markets, Bitcoin has often fallen back 40-50% from its peak before rallying again.

在較早的牛市，比特幣在再次集會之前，比特幣經常從高峰降低40-50％。

Based on past performance, this suggests significant potential for further growth.

基於過去的表現，這表明了進一步增長的巨大潛力。

If we look at the cycles, the growth of altcoins started in parallel with the growth of $ETH

如果我們看一下週期，則altcoins的增長與$ eth的增長始於

but this time we did not even see an attempt to beat the previous ATH

但是這次我們甚至沒有看到試圖擊敗以前的Ath

This means that the altcoin season is postponed indefinitely...

這意味著Altcoin季節是無限期推遲的...

ETH/BTC signal

ETH/BTC信號

If there is a reversal in the ETH/BTC situation, we could see a rally in altcoins as capital starts to flow into them.

如果在ETH/BTC情況下存在逆轉，我們可以看到Altcoins的集會隨著資本開始流入其中時。

With the recent meme coin rug pulls from presidents / individuals, people are increasingly turning to DeFi, RWA, and other utility sectors.

隨著最近的Meme硬幣地毯從總統 /個人那里拉出，人們越來越多地轉向Defi，RWA和其他公用事業部門。

Investors are not considering and do not expect Bitcoin to fall by 40-50%, which is a signal for a long-term game.

投資者沒有考慮，也不希望比特幣下降40-50％，這是長期遊戲的信號。

Most are leaving and will leave this race in the future, because it is impossible to constantly be in confusion, falling prices, and liquidations.

大多數人要離開並將在將來離開這場比賽，因為不可能不斷混淆，價格下跌和清算。

How to survive?

如何生存？

- If Bitcoin is going to strengthen, long $BTC, short weak coins

- 如果比特幣要加強，則長$ btc，短弱硬幣

- If you see that altcoins have found the bottom, do not hesitate to buy a couple of fundamentally strong coins from the top 100.

- 如果您看到Altcoins找到了底部，請隨時從前100名中購買幾枚堅固的硬幣。