DeepSeek造成了深層損失

昨天，每個人和母親都在談論DeepSeek AI，老實說，出於充分的理由 - 這個故事是瘋狂的。

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歡迎來到狼群！這是我分享新聞，關於市場，技術分析，教育和隨機沉思的想法。該新聞通訊每工作日發布，是完全免費的。

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In This Issue:

在這個問題中：

DeepSeek Delivers Deep Losses

DeepSeek造成了深層損失

Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis

比特幣思想和分析

Legacy Markets

傳統市場

How Big Was NVDIA’s Drop?

NVDIA的下降有多大？

MicroStrategy Has Found Another Way To Buy More Bitcoin

MicroStrategy找到了另一種購買更多比特幣的方法

One Million Tokens Are Created Every Week

每週創建一百萬個令牌

Erik Voorhees Launches VVV

Erik Voorhees啟動VVV

DeepSeek Delivers Deep Losses

DeepSeek造成了深層損失

Everyone and their mother was talking about DeepSeek AI yesterday, and honestly, for good reason—this story is wild. I’m not about to act like an AI guru who can dissect every technical detail or explain why life as we know it has changed forever. What I can do, however, is connect this development to a bigger picture that I actually understand—and, of course, tie it back to Bitcoin.

昨天，每個人和母親都在談論DeepSeek AI，老實說，出於充分的理由 - 這個故事是瘋狂的。我不是要像AI Guru那樣行事，他可以剖析每個技術細節，也可以解釋為什麼我們所知道的生活已經永遠改變了。但是，我能做的就是將這一開發與我真正理解的更大圖景聯繫起來，當然，它將其與比特幣聯繫起來。

Here’s the quick rundown of why everyone is buzzing about DeepSeek AI and why markets are losing their collective minds. DeepSeek is a China-based company now emerging as a serious rival to OpenAI and Google in the AI race. Yesterday, it officially dethroned ChatGPT in the Apple App Store, becoming the most downloaded free app. I haven’t tested the app myself, but the word on the street is that it’s just as good—if not better—than ChatGPT.

這就是為什麼每個人都對DeepSeek AI嗡嗡作響的快速失敗，以及為什麼市場失去集體思維。 DeepSeek是一家總部位於中國的公司，目前正在成為AI競賽中的Openai和Google的認真對手。昨天，它在Apple App Store中正式破壞了Chatgpt，成為下載最多的免費應用程序。我本人還沒有測試過該應用程序，但是街上的詞是比chatgpt一樣好（如果不是更好）。

And here’s the part that has everyone’s jaws on the floor: DeepSeek was reportedly built for just $5.6 million. Let that sink in. In the U.S., it’s been widely assumed that cutting-edge AI development requires tens, if not hundreds, of billions of dollars. DeepSeek’s success is not only disruptive but it is also completely reshaping assumptions about the cost of success in the AI space.

這是每個人的下巴都在地板上的部分：據報導，DeepSeek的建造僅為560萬美元。讓它沉入。在美國，人們普遍認為，尖端的AI開發需要數十億美元（即使不是數百美元）。 DeepSeek的成功不僅是破壞性的，而且還完全重塑了對AI領域成功成本的假設。

I want to steer this conversation to a book that many Bitcoiners hold in high regard: The Price of Tomorrow, by my friend Jeff Booth. Released in January 2020, it was a bold and forward-thinking commentary on the deflationary impact of technology. What makes its timing extraordinary is how it predates so many seismic events: the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve’s money printing frenzy, the 2020 Bitcoin halving, and the ongoing AI revolution. Booth’s insights feel even more prescient today.

我想將這次對話引導到許多比特幣高度重視的書中：我的朋友傑夫·布斯（Jeff Booth）的明天價格。這是2020年1月發行的，對技術的通縮影響是一篇大膽而具有前瞻性的評論。它使得它非同尋常的原因是它如何早於如此眾多的地震事件：Covid-19-大流行，美聯儲的貨幣印刷狂熱，2020年的比特幣減半以及正在進行的AI革命。布斯的見解今天感覺更為有先見之明。

“Technology is a deflationary force so great that, in the end, nothing we do will stop it.” — Jeff Booth

“技術是一種非常出色的通縮力，以至於最終我們所做的任何事情都不會阻止它。” - 傑夫·布斯（Jeff Booth）

Booth argues that our inflation-reliant economic system is fundamentally unsustainable. While governments and central banks depend on inflation to drive growth, technological advancements are an unstoppable deflationary force working in direct opposition to this model. While the idea of a debt-fueled economy is widely accepted, the deflationary pressure from tech isn’t as intuitive—until you really think about it. Once understood, it’s impossible to ignore.

布斯認為，我們的依靠通貨膨脹的經濟體係從根本上是不可持續的。儘管政府和中央銀行依靠通貨膨脹來推動增長，但技術的進步是直接反對該模型的不可阻擋的通縮力。儘管債務驅動的經濟的想法被廣泛接受，但技術的通縮壓力並不那麼直觀 - 直到您真正考慮它。一旦理解，就不可能忽略。

Deflationary technologies are everywhere. Smartphones grow more powerful and affordable over time. They consolidate multiple devices into one, with largely free apps. Streaming services like Netflix and Amazon Prime deliver more value than traditional cable at a fraction of the cost. Booth extends this logic to automation, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy—all of which reduce costs, boost productivity, and make goods and services more abundant, driving prices down. He warns that our relentless money printing will only exacerbate inequality and lead to social instability. His proposed solution? Embrace deflation by shifting to a sound, decentralized monetary system like Bitcoin.

通縮技術無處不在。隨著時間的流逝，智能手機的強大和負擔得起。他們將多個設備合併為一個免費的應用程序。 Netflix和Amazon Prime之類的流媒體服務比傳統電纜的成本比傳統電纜具有更多的價值。 Booth將這種邏輯擴展到自動化，人工智能和可再生能源 - 所有這些邏輯都降低了成本，提高生產率並使商品和服務更加豐富，從而降低了價格。他警告說，我們無情的金錢印刷只會加劇不平等現象並導致社會不穩定。他提出的解決方案？通過轉移到像比特幣這樣的聲音，分散的貨幣體係來擁抱放氣。

Here are two standout quotes from Booth’s book:

這是布斯書中的兩個傑出語錄：

“The majority of the deflation is still in front of us—driven by technology advancing at an exponential rate. If it ‘only’ took $185 trillion of debt over the last twenty years to fight the deflation and drive growth, then it might take that number again, but this time over the next thirty-six or so months. And eighteen months after that, a further $370 trillion.”

“大多數通縮仍在我們面前，這是由技術以指數級的速度驅動的。如果在過去的二十年中“只”耗費了185萬億美元來與通縮和推動增長作鬥爭，那麼這可能會再次花費這個數字，但是這次是在接下來的三十六個左右的幾個月中。在那之後的十八個月，另外370萬億美元。”

“Our economic systems were not built for a world driven by technology where prices keep falling. They were built for a pre-technology era when labour and capital were inextricably linked, an era that counted on growth and inflation, an era where we made money from scarcity and inefficiency. That era is over. But we keep on pretending that those economic systems still work.”

“我們的經濟體係不是為由價格下跌的技術驅動的世界而建造的。它們是為勞動力和資本密不可分的技術時代建造的，這個時代依靠增長和通貨膨脹，在這個時代，我們從稀缺性和效率低下賺錢。那個時代結束了。但是我們一直假裝那些經濟體系仍然有效。”

DeepSeek’s breakthrough yesterday epitomizes Booth’s thesis. A Chinese company competing with OpenAI and Google for a fraction of the cost is a

DeepSeek昨天的突破體現了Booth的論文。一家與Openai和Google競爭的中國公司的成本很少，這是