解碼比特幣的四年周期：雙子座的人類情感執行

雙子座高管強調了人類情感在比特幣四年周期中的作用。了解趨勢並導航市場。

Decoding Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle: Gemini Exec on Human Emotion

解碼比特幣的四年周期：雙子座的人類情感執行

Bitcoin's journey is often linked to its four-year cycle, influenced by halving events and, surprisingly, human emotions. Let's explore this dynamic, with insights from Gemini.

比特幣的旅程通常與其四年周期有關，受到減半事件以及令人驚訝的人類情緒的影響。讓我們通過雙子座的見解來探索這種動態。

The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle: More Than Just Math

比特幣4年周期：不僅僅是數學

The four-year Bitcoin cycle is closely tied to halving events, where mining rewards are cut in half, reducing the influx of new Bitcoins. Traditionally, this slowing supply against steady or increasing demand has driven prices upward. However, a Gemini executive recently pointed out that human emotion plays a larger role than simple math in this cycle. As Saad Ahmed, Head of APAC at Gemini, mentioned at Token2049 in Singapore, the cycle stems from people getting overly excited and then correcting to an equilibrium after a crash.

四年的比特幣週期與減半事件緊密相關，在該事件中，採礦獎勵將一半切成兩半，從而減少了新的比特幣的湧入。傳統上，這種對穩定或不斷增長的需求的供應放緩導致了價格上漲。但是，雙子座高管最近指出，在這個週期中，人類的情感比簡單的數學發揮了更大的作用。正如新加坡Token2049在Gemini的Apac負責人Saad Ahmed所說的那樣，循環源於人們過度興奮，然後在墜機後糾正到平衡。

Human Emotions: The Real Market Movers

人類情感：真正的市場推動者

Investor behavior significantly impacts Bitcoin's price. Emotions like fear, greed, and FOMO (fear of missing out) can amplify market trends. During bull runs, optimism can lead to overvaluation, while downturns see fear causing undervaluation. Recognizing these patterns can help investors navigate the market with more confidence.

投資者的行為顯著影響比特幣的價格。諸如恐懼，貪婪和FOMO（害怕錯過）之類的情緒可以擴大市場趨勢。在公牛奔跑期間，樂觀會導致高估，而低迷的恐懼會導致低估。認識到這些模式可以幫助投資者更加自信地導航市場。

Institutional Involvement: A Volatility Dampener?

機構參與：波動性阻尼劑？

Growing institutional involvement could potentially temper some of the volatility traditionally associated with the four-year cycle. With more mature players entering the space, the market may become better at absorbing shocks and extreme price swings. However, as Ahmed noted, the underlying human element will likely ensure that some form of cycle persists.

發展的製度參與可能會降低一些與四年周期相關的波動性。隨著更多成熟的球員進入該空間，市場可能會在吸收衝擊和極端價格波動方面變得更好。但是，正如艾哈邁德（Ahmed）指出的那樣，潛在的人類因素可能會確保某種形式的循環持續存在。

What This Means for Investors

這對投資者意味著什麼

Understanding that Bitcoin's cycle is influenced by both halving events and human psychology allows for smarter investment decisions. Recognizing emotional patterns can reveal opportunities and risks. Also, being aware of your own emotions and implementing strategies to mitigate impulsive reactions can help avoid mistakes.

了解比特幣的周期受到減半事件和人類心理學的影響，可以做出更明智的投資決策。識別情緒模式可以揭示機會和風險。此外，了解自己的情緒並實施減輕衝動反應的策略可以幫助避免錯誤。

The Cycle Continues...Or Does It?

週期繼續...還是這樣？

While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, the interplay between halving events and human behavior has historically created a predictable pattern. However, some analysts, like Bitwise’s Matt Hougan, suggest that Bitcoin’s price may not follow the cycle as rigidly in the future.

儘管過去的表現並不能保證未來的結果，但減半事件與人類行為之間的相互作用歷史上創造了一種可預測的模式。但是，一些分析師，例如Bitwise的Matt Hougan，表明比特幣的價格可能不會像將來那樣嚴格地遵循。

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

Whether or not the four-year cycle continues precisely as it has in the past remains to be seen. But understanding the forces at play—halving events, human emotions, and growing institutional involvement—is crucial for any Bitcoin investor. So, buckle up, stay informed, and remember that even in the world of crypto, a little bit of emotional intelligence can go a long way!

四年周期是否像過去那樣持續到持續存在尚待觀察。但是，了解起作用的力量 - 遭受事件，人類的情緒和製度的參與 - 對任何比特幣投資者至關重要。因此，扣緊，保持知識，並記住，即使在加密貨幣世界中，一些情緒智力也可以走很長一段路！