達利奧（Dalio）的看法：平衡比特幣，黃金和債務厄運循環

雷·達利奧（Ray Dalio）建議將比特幣或黃金分配15％，以此作為對美國債務和通貨膨脹的對沖。這是紐約對沖基金Guru對加密貨幣的最新看法嗎？

Ray Dalio, the big cheese at Bridgewater Associates, is sounding the alarm about U.S. debt and inflation. His solution? A healthy dose of Bitcoin or gold in your investment portfolio. Let's dive into what Dalio's been saying and what it means for your Benjamins.

布里奇沃特（Bridgewater Associates）的大奶酪雷·達利奧（Ray Dalio）向美國債務和通貨膨脹發出了警報。他的解決方案？您的投資組合中有健康劑量的比特幣或黃金。讓我們深入了解Dalio在說什麼以及這對您的本傑明斯意味著什麼。

Dalio's Portfolio Prescription: 15% in Gold or Bitcoin

Dalio的投資組合處方：15％的黃金或比特幣

Dalio's been making the rounds, suggesting that investors should consider allocating around 15% of their portfolio to either gold or Bitcoin. This isn't just some random musing; it's a strategic move to hedge against the potential devaluation of the U.S. dollar amidst rising debt and geopolitical tensions. He told Master Investor podcast host Wilfred Frost, that diversification should include 15% of either gold or Bitcoin.

達利奧（Dalio）一直在巡迴演出，這表明投資者應考慮將其投資組合的15％分配給黃金或比特幣。這不僅是隨機的沉思。在債務和地緣政治緊張局勢上升，這是對沖美元的潛在貶值的戰略舉動。他告訴大師投資者播客主持人威爾弗雷德·弗羅斯特（Wilfred Frost），多元化應包括15％的黃金或比特幣。

Back in 2022, Dalio was a bit more cautious, recommending only 1% to 2% in Bitcoin. But times have changed, and so has Dalio's outlook. He's now more concerned about what he calls the “debt doom loop,” with the U.S. planning to issue a whopping $12 trillion in new Treasury bonds to cover its $36.7 trillion national debt.

早在2022年，達利奧（Dalio）就更加謹慎，建議比特幣中只有1％至2％。但是時代已經改變，達利奧的前景也發生了變化。現在，他更加擔心他所謂的“債務厄運循環”，美國計劃發行高達12萬億美元的新財政債券，以彌補其36.7萬億美元的國債。

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Dalio's Preference

黃金與比特幣：達利奧的偏愛

While Dalio acknowledges Bitcoin's potential, he still leans towards gold. He sees both as effective alternatives when fiat currencies lose value. However, he maintains a conservative stance on Bitcoin's role as a reserve asset, citing concerns about oversight and blockchain transparency.

儘管達利奧（Dalio）承認比特幣的潛力，但他仍然傾向於黃金。當法定貨幣失去價值時，他認為兩者都是有效的選擇。但是，他對比特幣作為儲備資產的作用保持了保守的立場，理由是對監督和區塊鏈透明度的擔憂。

He emphasizes that if you were neutral and optimizing your portfolio for the best risk-reward ratio, about 15% in gold or Bitcoin would be a good call, but he prefers gold.

他強調，如果您處於中立並以最佳風險獎勵比率優化投資組合，那麼大約15％的黃金或比特幣將是一個很好的電話，但他更喜歡黃金。

The Bigger Picture: Inflation and Economic Concerns

更大的前景：通貨膨脹和經濟問題

Dalio isn't alone in his concerns. Senator Cynthia Lummis has also suggested that Bitcoin could serve as an inflation hedge, especially for low- to middle-income folks. The U.S. government is projected to borrow $1 trillion in Q3 and another $590 billion in Q4, further fueling these concerns.

達利奧並不孤單。參議員辛西婭·盧米斯（Cynthia Lummis）還建議比特幣可以作為通貨膨脹對沖，尤其是對於低至中等收入的人。美國政府預計將在第三季度借入1萬億美元，在第四季度再藉入5900億美元，進一步加劇了這些擔憂。

Dalio has even warned of a potential 1970s-style stagflation period, with high inflation, high unemployment, and low economic growth. In such times, hard assets like gold and Bitcoin could be your financial life raft.

達利奧（Dalio）甚至警告了1970年代風格的停滯期，高通貨膨脹，高失業率和經濟增長低。在這種情況下，金和比特幣等硬資產可能是您的財務壽命。

A Contrarian's View (Sort Of)

逆勢人物的觀點（有點）

While Dalio's advice is noteworthy, it's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and investment goals. Dumping 15% of your portfolio into a volatile asset like Bitcoin might not be for everyone. However, the underlying message is clear: diversification and hedging against potential economic downturns are crucial.

儘管達利奧（Dalio）的建議值得注意，但必須考慮自己的風險承受能力和投資目標。將15％的投資組合倒入像比特幣這樣的波動資產中，可能並不適合所有人。但是，基本信息是明確的：對潛在的經濟低迷的多元化和對沖至關重要。

So, What's the Play?

那麼，什麼是戲？

Dalio's insights offer a compelling argument for considering Bitcoin and gold as part of a well-rounded investment strategy. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting, it's worth pondering how these assets could fit into your long-term financial plan. Just remember, don't go betting the house on crypto...unless you're feeling particularly daring. Now, go forth and conquer the markets!

達利奧（Dalio）的見解為將比特幣和黃金視為全面投資策略的一部分提供了令人信服的論點。無論您是經驗豐富的投資者還是剛開始，都值得思考這些資產如何適合您的長期財務計劃。請記住，不要在加密貨幣上押注房子...除非您感到特別大膽。現在，出去征服市場！