CoinShares的市場指標：在美聯儲調整中，比特幣平靜

Coinshares的詹姆斯·巴特菲爾（James Butterfill）分析了比特幣對美聯儲的費率調整的反應，強調了投資者對清除寬鬆週期的期望。

The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut barely caused a ripple in the Bitcoin pond, according to CoinShares' insights. Traders are playing it cool, demanding solid proof of a genuine shift in monetary policy rather than just a minor adjustment.

根據Coinshares的見解，美聯儲最近削減的速度幾乎沒有引起比特幣池塘的波紋。貿易商正在酷炫，要求誠實的證據證明貨幣政策的真正轉變，而不僅僅是較小的調整。

Bitcoin's Waiting Game

比特幣的等待遊戲

Bitcoin has been treading water for three months, with volatility squeezed to around 26%. This is quite the contrast to the usual excitement that follows easing policies. CoinShares' report suggests that while futures markets are toying with the idea of three rate cuts this year, the price action is saying, "Show me the money!"

比特幣已經踩水了三個月，波動性擠壓到約26％。這與寬鬆政策遵循的興奮是完全鮮明的對比。 Coinshares的報告表明，儘管期貨市場今年削減了三稅的想法，但價格行動說：“給我看錢！”

Decoding the Fed's Moves

解碼美聯儲的舉動

The Fed shaved off 25 basis points, setting the target range at 4.0%–4.25%. The projections now hint at another 50 bps of cuts in 2024, with further reductions in 2026 and 2027. However, there's a split view on the horizon. Some foresee two more trims in 2024, while others anticipate none, and a few even suggest potential rate hikes by the end of the year.

美聯儲剃掉了25個基點，將目標範圍定為4.0％–4.25％。現在，預測暗示了2024年的另外50個基點的切割，在2026年和2027年進行了進一步的減少。但是，地平線上有一個拆分視圖。一些人預見到2024年還有兩個修剪，而另一些人則沒有預見，甚至有些人甚至建議在今年年底之前上漲。

Dovish Signals and Bitcoin's Appeal

虔誠的信號和比特幣的吸引力

CoinShares interprets the Fed's actions as a more dovish approach, easing policy despite persistent inflation concerns. This stance could enhance Bitcoin's attractiveness as a hedge against monetary debasement. However, markets are seeking confirmation. Until policymakers provide a clear and consistent path of cuts, Bitcoin seems content to wait, compressing volatility and biding its time.

Coinshares將美聯儲的行為解釋為一種更虔誠的方法，儘管有持續的通貨膨脹問題，但仍將政策放鬆。這種立場可以提高比特幣的吸引力，以防樹籬貨幣貶低。但是，市場正在尋求確認。除非政策制定者提供清晰的切割途徑，否則比特幣似乎滿足於等待，壓縮波動率並付出時間。

Market Expectations vs. Reality

市場期望與現實

While CME's FedWatch is practically shouting about another rate cut, with a 90% probability, Bitcoin remains unfazed. Traders are essentially sipping lattes, waiting for Fed Chair Powell to deliver a full-throated confirmation. Until then, Bitcoin is happy playing the strong, silent type.

儘管CME的FedWatch實際上在大喊降低稅率的情況下，但概率為90％，但比特幣仍然毫無疑問。貿易商本質上是在飲拿鐵咖啡，等待美聯儲主席鮑威爾提供全面的確認。在此之前，比特幣很高興玩強壯，無聲的類型。

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

So, what's the takeaway? Bitcoin's not easily swayed by mere whispers. It's waiting for the Fed to turn up the volume and commit to a sustained easing cycle. Until then, it's business as usual in the crypto world. Keep your lattes warm and your eyes on the charts!

那麼，收穫是什麼？比特幣不容易被單純的耳語搖擺。它正在等待美聯儲提高音量並承諾持續的緩解週期。在此之前，在加密貨幣世界中像往常一樣生意。保持拿鐵的溫暖，並在圖表上！