數據指標閃爍，卡爾達諾（ADA）面臨 30% 下跌風險

兩週前聯準會宣布降息後，卡爾達諾股價大幅上漲 26%，提振了整個加密貨幣市場的樂觀情緒。

Cardano (ADA) price is showing signs of weakness despite a recent rally, with key resistance levels remaining unbreached and on-chain data revealing a decline in demand. As a result, ADA faces a risk of a 30% drop to its yearly low, technical analysis suggests.

儘管近期有所上漲，但卡爾達諾（ADA）價格仍顯示疲軟跡象，關鍵阻力位仍未突破，鏈上數據顯示需求下降。因此，技術分析表明，ADA 面臨下跌 30% 至年度低點的風險。

Rising selling pressure and diminishing demand, as indicated by Santiment’s on-chain data, presents a significant risk for ADA. The daily active-address (DAA) divergence for ADA shows a deep negative reading of -43.3% at the time of writing. This metric tracks the correlation between an asset’s price movements and changes in its daily active addresses. A negative DAA divergence indicates that the asset’s price is not keeping up with the activity on its network, suggesting a lack of organic demand.

Santiment 的鏈上數據表明，銷售壓力上升和需求下降給 ADA 帶來了重大風險。在撰寫本文時，ADA 的每日活躍地址 (DAA) 背離顯示為 -43.3% 的深度負讀數。此指標追蹤資產價格變動與其每日活躍地址變化之間的相關性。 DAA 負背離表示該資產的價格跟不上其網路上的活動，顯示缺乏有機需求。

Cardano Daily Active Addresses Divergence Chart. Source: Santiment

卡爾達諾每日活躍地址差異圖。資料來源：Santiment

This divergence has been sustained since September 7, highlighting a troubling trend for ADA. The lack of demand suggests that much of ADA’s rally this month, following the interest rate cuts, is more driven by broader market sentiment than by any specific demand for ADA itself.

這種分歧自 9 月 7 日以來一直持續，凸顯了 ADA 令人不安的趨勢。需求的缺乏表明，在降息之後，本月 ADA 的上漲很大程度上是由更廣泛的市場情緒推動的，而不是對 ADA 本身的任何特定需求。

As traders begin to lock in profits and the selling pressure increases, ADA’s price could drop sharply without sustained buying pressure. According to technical analysis, if ADA fails to break above its current resistance level of around $0.41, analysts expect a deeper correction, potentially pushing the price back to the yearly low of $0.27.

隨著交易者開始鎖定利潤，拋售壓力增大，如果沒有持續的買壓，ADA 的價格可能會大幅下跌。根據技術分析，如果 ADA 未能突破目前約 0.41 美元的阻力位，分析師預計將出現更大幅度的回調，可能會將價格推回到 0.27 美元的年度低點。

ADA Daily Price Chart

ADA 每日價格圖表

ADA trades at $0.38, having faced a 10% rejection from its daily 200 exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.41. This level has become a crucial resistance area, as the price formed a new local high around this zone.

ADA 的交易價格為 0.38 美元，其每日 200 指數移動平均線 (EMA) 的 0.41 美元被拒絕了 10%。該水平已成為關鍵阻力區域，因為價格在該區域附近形成了新的局部高點。

To the upside, ADA must push above the 200 EMA at $0.41 and the next key resistance at $0.45 to confirm a bullish trend for the coming weeks. Successfully breaking past these levels would signal renewed strength, giving the bulls control and potentially leading to higher prices.

向上看，ADA 必須突破 200 EMA 0.41 美元和下一個關鍵阻力位 0.45 美元，才能確認未來幾週的看漲趨勢。成功突破這些水平將標誌著新的強勢，讓多頭獲得控制權，並可能導致價格上漲。

On the other hand, if ADA fails to push above these critical levels, the altcoin could face further downside pressure. A failure to reclaim $0.41 and surpass $0.45 would likely result in increased selling, triggering a potential 30% drop. In such a scenario, ADA would be at risk of revisiting its yearly low of around $0.27.

另一方面，如果 ADA 未能突破這些關鍵水平，山寨幣可能面臨進一步的下行壓力。如果未能收回 0.41 美元並超過 0.45 美元，可能會導致拋售增加，從而引發潛在的 30% 下跌。在這種情況下，ADA 將面臨重新觸及 0.27 美元左右的年度低點的風險。