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Hashkey Group的首席分析師Jeffrey Ding認為,這種現像有三個主要原因:
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) continues to rise and has now broken through the $110,000 mark in one fell swoop, setting a new all-time high. What are the factors driving this rapid ascent?
比特幣(BTC)的價格不斷上漲,現在一口氣打破了110,000美元的成績,創造了新的歷史最高水平。有什麼因素推動這一快速上升的因素?
Jeffrey Ding, chief analyst at HashKey Group, highlights three key aspects that are pushing Bitcoin upwards.
Hashkey Group首席分析師Jeffrey Ding強調了將比特幣向上推動的三個關鍵方面。
Firstly, there are clear macro policy dividends in play. The easing of Sino-US trade relations is a crucial macroeconomic backdrop fueling Bitcoin’s surge. Trump announced "historic cooperation with major powers" in early May and formally signed the Sino-US tariff agreement on May 12, reducing mutual tariffs from a maximum of 84% to 10%. This unexpected policy breakthrough has decreased global economic uncertainty and boosted market confidence in risky assets.
首先,有明確的宏觀政策股息。中國貿易關係的放鬆是一種至關重要的宏觀經濟背景,助長了比特幣的激增。特朗普在5月初宣布“與大國的歷史合作”,並於5月12日正式簽署了《中美國關稅協議》,將相互關稅從最高84%降低到10%。這一意外的政策突破減少了全球經濟不確定性,並增強了市場對風險資產的信心。
As a high-risk and high-return asset, Bitcoin has seen further capital favorability against the backdrop of easing macro risk sentiment.
作為高風險和高回報的資產,比特幣在緩解宏觀風險情緒的背景下看到了進一步的資本利益。
Secondly, there is a policy catalyst in the form of the US GENIUS Stablecoin Act advancing. The US Senate voted 66:32 to advance the procedural motion of the GENIUS Stablecoin Act, which will provide a federal regulatory framework for US dollar stablecoins.
其次,有一個政策催化劑,以美國天才穩定法的形式進行。美國參議院對66:32進行了投票,以推進《天才斯塔布爾幣法》的程序動議,該法案將為美元穩定股份提供聯邦監管框架。
The passage of the bill will enable traditional banks to obtain new liquidity through stablecoin issuance, achieve interoperability with DeFi protocols, and build an "on-chain-off-chain" liquidity bridge. This will not only release huge capital momentum but also inject strong policy confidence into the crypto asset market.
該法案的通過將使傳統銀行能夠通過Stablecoin發行獲得新的流動性,與Defi協議實現互操作性,並建立“鍊鍊”流動性橋樑。這不僅將發布巨大的資本動力,而且還將向加密資產市場注入強大的政策信心。
At the same time, Hong Kong also passed the Stablecoin Bill in the third reading, which is expected to take effect within the year. Hong Kong has become one of the first regions in the world to complete stablecoin legislation, further promoting the compliance development of the global stablecoin market.
同時,香港還通過了三讀中的穩定法案,預計該法案將在一年內生效。香港已成為世界上第一批完成Stablecoin立法的地區之一,進一步促進了全球Stablecoin市場的合規性發展。
These policy dividends are opening up new growth space for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
這些政策紅利正在為比特幣和其他加密資產開闢新的增長空間。
Thirdly, on-chain data is reinforcing the logic of scarcity. The scarcity of Bitcoin has been amplified again in this round of price increases. According to Glassnode data, the holdings of long-term Bitcoin holders increased to 13.76 million, accounting for 65.6% of the total circulation, setting a new high.
第三,鍊鍊數據正在增強稀缺性的邏輯。在這一輪價格上漲中,比特幣的稀缺再次被放大。根據GlassNode數據,長期比特幣持有人的持有量增加到1376萬,佔總流通量的65.6%,創造了新的高位。
At the same time, the Bitcoin reserves of centralized exchanges have dropped sharply, with only 2.437 million left as of May 20, setting the lowest level since 2018. This means that the number of Bitcoins available for trading in the market is rapidly decreasing, and the mismatch between supply and demand has significantly strengthened the momentum for price increases.
同時,集中式交易所的比特幣儲量急劇下降,截至5月20日還剩2437萬,這是自2018年以來的最低水平。這意味著,可在市場上可用的比特幣數量正在迅速減少,並且供求之間的不匹配和需求之間的不匹配可顯著加強價格上漲的瞬間。
With the compliance of stablecoins, more "quasi-dollar" funds will be attracted to enter the market, giving core assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum stronger risk aversion and value storage attributes.
憑藉穩定的穩定性,將吸引更多的“準價”資金進入市場,從而為比特幣和以太坊等核心資產提供更強的風險規避和價值存儲屬性。
As these funds gradually flow in, Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to usher in a 20%-50% increase in valuation in the next 6-12 months. At the same time, the maturity of compliance channels will provide a bridge for long-term capital such as pension funds and mutual funds to enter the crypto market, which will greatly enhance the stability of market demand and effectively reduce structural risks.
隨著這些資金逐漸流入,比特幣和以太坊預計將在接下來的6-12個月內提高估值增長20%。同時,合規渠道的成熟度將為長期資本提供橋樑,例如養老基金和共同基金進入加密貨幣市場,這將大大提高市場需求的穩定性並有效地降低結構性風險。
The interaction between policy dividends and market consensus is unfolding new growth space for Bitcoin and crypto assets.
政策股息與市場共識之間的相互作用正在展現比特幣和加密資產的新增長空間。
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