比特幣的狂野之旅：STH 損失和 SOPR 信號 – 接下來是什麼？

比特幣最近的波動讓短期持有者感到緊張，但 SOPR 信號暗示了潛在的穩定。是投降了，還是還會有更多的負面影響？

Bitcoin's Wild Ride: STH Losses and SOPR Signals – What's Next?

比特幣的狂野之旅：STH 損失和 SOPR 信號 – 接下來是什麼？

Bitcoin's been on a rollercoaster, with short-term holders feeling the heat. Are we seeing capitulation, or is there more downside ahead? Let's dive into the on-chain signals.

比特幣就像坐過山車一樣，短期持有者感受到了壓力。我們是否會看到投降，或者未來還會有更多的下行空間嗎？讓我們深入研究鏈上信號。

Fear Grips the Market: STH Losses Surge

恐懼籠罩市場：STH 損失激增

Bitcoin took a tumble from the $110,000 range, briefly dipping below $100,000. This sharp decline reflects mounting fear, with short-term holders (STHs) feeling the pain. According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler, loss-making transactions among STHs are surging. The 7-day Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) is below 1, indicating that newer holders are selling at a loss. This suggests panic-driven selling, as reactive market participants offload positions under stress.

比特幣從 11 萬美元區間暴跌，一度跌破 10 萬美元。這種急劇下跌反映了人們日益增長的恐懼，短期持有者（STH）感受到了痛苦。鏈上分析師 Axel Adler 表示，STH 之間的虧損交易正在激增。 7 天短期持有者支出產出利潤率 (STH-SOPR) 低於 1，表明新持有者正在虧本出售。這表明恐慌驅動的拋售，因為反應活躍的市場參與者在壓力下拋售頭寸。

SOPR Signals: Capitulation Not Yet Complete?

SOPR 信號：投降尚未完成？

While STH losses are rising, Adler notes that current on-chain stress hasn't reached full capitulation levels. The STH-SOPR Z-score, while negative, isn't as low as during previous major corrections. This suggests the market might be in the middle phase of its correction, rather than at the end. We're seeing pain and fear, but not a complete exhaustion of sellers. This leaves room for further downside or a potential stabilization if buyers step in.

阿德勒指出，雖然 STH 損失正在上升，但當前的鏈上壓力尚未達到完全投降的水平。 STH-SOPR Z 分數雖然為負，但並不像之前的重大調整期間那麼低。這表明市場可能正處於調整的中期階段，而不是結束階段。我們看到了痛苦和恐懼，但賣家並沒有完全疲憊不堪。如果買家介入，這將為進一步下跌或潛在穩定留下空間。

Price Action: Testing Key Support Levels

價格走勢：測試關鍵支撐位

Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize, but the recovery lacks strength. The prior key demand zone around $105,000–$107,000 has flipped into resistance. Failure to build support above $100,000 could expose the next liquidity pocket toward $96,000–$98,000. A sustained bounce requires buyers to defend current levels as the market tests conviction under stress.

比特幣正試圖企穩，但復甦缺乏力量。之前 105,000 美元至 107,000 美元左右的關鍵需求區域已轉變為阻力位。如果未能在 100,000 美元上方建立支撐，可能會將下一個流動性口袋暴露在 96,000 至 98,000 美元之間。持續反彈需要買家捍衛當前水平，因為市場在壓力下考驗信心。

Galaxy Digital's Take: Bullish Long-Term, Cautious Short-Term

Galaxy Digital 的觀點：看好長期，謹慎短期

Even with the recent volatility, some institutions remain bullish. Galaxy Digital, while lowering its 2025 price forecast to $120,000, maintains a long-term bullish stance. They cite institutional inflows and ETF growth as drivers of the next expansion phase. Galaxy believes that as long as Bitcoin holds above $100,000, the broader bull market structure remains intact. Other institutions, like Metaplanet, are doubling down, expanding their Bitcoin holdings.

儘管近期波動較大，一些機構仍保持看漲情緒。 Galaxy Digital 雖然將 2025 年價格預測下調至 12 萬美元，但仍保持長期看漲立場。他們將機構資金流入和 ETF 增長視為下一擴張階段的驅動力。 Galaxy 認為，只要比特幣保持在 10 萬美元以上，更廣泛的牛市結構就保持完好。 Metaplanet 等其他機構正在加倍努力，擴大其比特幣持有量。

The Bottom Line

底線

Bitcoin's facing some headwinds, with STH losses and SOPR signals painting a mixed picture. While short-term pain is evident, the long-term outlook remains optimistic for many. Whether we see further downside or a swift recovery depends on buyer conviction and the ability to reclaim key support levels.

比特幣面臨一些阻力，STH 損失和 SOPR 信號描繪了一幅複雜的圖景。儘管短期痛苦顯而易見，但許多人的長期前景仍然樂觀。我們是否會看到進一步的下跌或迅速復蘇，取決於買家的信念和奪回關鍵支撐位的能力。

So, buckle up, HODLers! It's gonna be a bumpy ride. But hey, isn't that what makes Bitcoin so exciting?

所以，扣好安全帶，HODLers！這將是一段坎坷的旅程。但是，這難道不是比特幣如此令人興奮的原因嗎？