比特幣戰略暫停：減半準備中獲利回吐和做空

據 CryptoQuant 稱，比特幣最近跌至 61,000 美元是由於市場參與者因預期 4 月 20 日減半而減少了曝險。交易員平掉多頭頭寸，導致永續期貨市場上賣單佔據主導地位，買進賣出比率跌至1以下就證明了這一點。短期持有者出售其資產，以從最近上漲至 71,000 美元的高額利潤中獲利。負資金利率表示交易者願意維持空頭頭寸，而鯨魚、永久持有者和美國ETF的需求成長已經放緩。儘管存在這些因素，比特幣仍處於牛市階段，最近的拋售是未實現利潤的重置，使比特幣更接近其已實現價格 58,000 美元。

Bitcoin's Market Correction: A Strategic Retreat Amidst Halving Preparations

比特幣市場回調：減半準備中的戰略撤退

Bitcoin's recent descent to the $61,000 mark over the weekend mirrored a prudent strategy among market participants seeking to reduce their exposure to the digital asset ahead of the highly anticipated halving event scheduled for April 20th. According to the latest CryptoQuant weekly report, this calculated move was driven by a combination of profit-taking and a shift in sentiment towards short-selling.

比特幣最近在周末跌至 61,000 美元大關，反映出市場參與者採取謹慎策略，尋求在 4 月 20 日備受期待的減半事件之前減少對數位資產的敞口。根據最新的 CryptoQuant 每週報告，這項精心策劃的舉動是由獲利回吐和賣空情緒轉變共同推動的。

Profit-Taking and Shift in Sentiment

獲利了結和情緒轉變

Analysts observed a notable surge in traders closing their long positions to secure profits, leading to a dominance of sell orders in the perpetual futures markets. This trend is reflected in the Buy Sell Ratio, which has dipped below one, signaling a shift away from bullish positions. When buy orders outnumber sell orders, the ratio typically rises above one.

分析師觀察到，為確保利潤平掉多頭頭寸的交易員顯著增加，導致永續期貨市場上賣單佔據主導地位。這一趨勢反映在買入賣出比率中，該比率已降至 1 以下，顯示多頭部位有所轉變。當買入訂單數量超過賣出訂單數量時，該比率通常會升至 1 以上。

Reduced Exposure and Margin Compression

風險減少和利潤壓縮

Alongside the profit-taking, traders also decreased their overall exposure to Bitcoin, resulting in a decline in total open interest from 250,000 BTC to approximately 220,000 BTC. Short-term holders, those holding BTC for less than six months, seized the opportunity to unload their assets and secure substantial profit margins following the asset's recent surge to $71,000.

除了獲利了結之外，交易者還減少了對比特幣的整體敞口，導致未平倉合約總量從 250,000 BTC 下降至約 220,000 BTC。在比特幣近期飆升至 71,000 美元後，短期持有者（即持有 BTC 時間不足六個月的人）抓住機會拋售資產並獲得可觀的利潤率。

Negative funding rates, an indicator of traders' willingness to pay for opening and maintaining short positions, have also emerged for the first time since January 2024. This shift in sentiment suggests that traders are anticipating further downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.

自 2024 年 1 月以來，負資金利率也首次出現，負資金利率是交易者為開立和維持空頭頭寸支付意願的指標。

Weakening Demand Growth

需求成長疲軟

Demand growth from whales, or holders with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC, has also decelerated after a rapid pace observed last month. The month-on-month increase in the total balance of these large entities has dropped to 8% from the 11% recorded in mid-March.

鯨魚（即持有 1,000 至 10,000 BTC 的持有者）的需求增長在上個月出現快速增長後也有所放緩。這些大型實體總餘額較上季增幅已從3月中旬的11%降至8%。

Similarly, demand growth from permanent BTC holders, such as accumulation addresses, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based in the United States has weakened. Accumulation addresses have seen monthly inflows decline to 161,000 BTC from the previous 204,000 BTC. ETFs have witnessed net outflows for three consecutive trading days, with outflows from Grayscale's GBTC surpassing the cumulative inflows of the funds.

同樣，來自美國的累積地址和交易所交易基金（ETF）等永久比特幣持有者的需求成長也有所減弱。累積地址的每月流入量從先前的 204,000 BTC 下降至 161,000 BTC。 ETF已連續三個交易日出現淨流出，其中灰度GBTC的流出量超過了基金累計流入量。

Bullish Market Intact Despite Correction

儘管出現調整，看漲市場仍維持不變

Despite the recent plunge in demand growth and open interest, analysts maintain that Bitcoin remains firmly within the bull market phase. CryptoQuant experts emphasize that the recent sell-off served as a necessary reset, reducing traders' unrealized profits to zero, an action often interpreted as a bottom signal in bull cycles. Moreover, Bitcoin's value has moved closer to the traders' realized price of $58,000, which has provided support during this period.

儘管最近需求成長和未平倉合約大幅下降，但分析師仍認為比特幣仍處於多頭階段。 CryptoQuant 專家強調，最近的拋售是必要的重置，將交易者的未實現利潤降至零，這一行為通常被解讀為牛市週期的底部訊號。此外，比特幣的價值已接近交易者的實際價格 58,000 美元，這在此期間提供了支撐。

"From a long-term cyclical perspective, Bitcoin is still in a bull market phase," said CryptoQuant. "CryptoQuant's Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator remains in the BULL phase. However, it signaled that the bull market had entered an overheated phase when prices increased above $70,000."

CryptoQuant 表示：“從長期週期性角度來看，比特幣仍處於牛市階段。” “CryptoQuant 的牛熊市場週期指標仍處於牛市階段。然而，當價格升至 70,000 美元以上時，它表明牛市已進入過熱階段。”

Short-Term Sentiment vs. Long-Term Outlook

短期情緒與長期展望

The current market sentiment may suggest a short-term correction, but the overall long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish. The upcoming halving event, which will reduce the supply of new Bitcoin by 50%, is expected to create a surge in demand and drive prices higher.

目前的市場情緒可能會出現短期調整，但比特幣的整體長期前景仍看漲。即將到來的減半事件將使新比特幣的供應量減少 50%，預計將導致需求激增並推高價格。

Conclusion

結論

Bitcoin's recent market correction is a strategic move by traders seeking to manage their risk and position themselves for potential volatility ahead of the halving event. While short-term sentiment may indicate a period of consolidation, the long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin remains intact. The halving event, coupled with the asset's inherent fundamentals and increasing adoption, will likely continue to fuel its upward trajectory.

比特幣最近的市場調整是交易者在減半事件之前尋求管理風險並為潛在波動做好準備的戰略舉措。雖然短期情緒可能預示著一段時期的盤整，但比特幣的長期看漲前景仍然完好無損。減半事件，加上該資產的固有基本面和不斷增加的採用率，可能會繼續推動其上升軌跡。