比特幣：一種財務前景不確定的投機資產

在 Quartz 的「智慧投資」系列訪談中，Fiduciary Trust International 董事總經理 Doug Cohen 討論了比特幣的投機性質以及投資比特幣的潛在風險和收益。雖然承認持有少量頭寸作為對沖的觀點，但科恩仍然對比特幣作為主流資產的長期生存能力持懷疑態度，因為比特幣缺乏歷史、非法活動以及政府監管方面的挑戰。他預測，由央行支持的數位貨幣最終可能會佔據主導地位，但他認為，比特幣可能仍然是一種利基投資，而不是金融體系中的主導者。

Bitcoin: A Speculative Asset with Uncertain Future in the Financial Landscape

比特幣：金融格局中未來不確定的投機資產

Doug Cohen, managing director at Fiduciary Trust International, recently engaged in an interview for the latest installment of Quartz's "Smart Investing" video series. In this interview, Cohen provided his insights on Bitcoin, its potential as a hedge, and its future trajectory within the financial system.

Fiduciary Trust International 董事總經理 Doug Cohen 最近接受了 Quartz 最新一期「智慧投資」影片系列的採訪。在這次採訪中，科恩提供了他對比特幣、其作為對沖工具的潛力以及其在金融體系中的未來發展軌蹟的見解。

Cohen acknowledged that Bitcoin lacks the extensive historical data of traditional assets like gold, making it a highly speculative investment. He emphasized the prevalence of illicit activities associated with Bitcoin and expressed skepticism about its viability as a secure and dependable asset.

科恩承認，比特幣缺乏黃金等傳統資產的廣泛歷史數據，使其成為高度投機的投資。他強調了與比特幣相關的非法活動的盛行，並對比特幣作為安全可靠資產的可行性表示懷疑。

Despite his reservations, Cohen acknowledged that Bitcoin has demonstrated hedging potential during periods of uncertainty. However, he cautioned that this hedging ability remains untested over extended timeframes. Additionally, Cohen expressed concerns about the potential reluctance of governments to allow a decentralized and largely unregulated financial system to flourish.

儘管持保留態度，科恩承認比特幣在不確定時期表現出了對沖潛力。然而，他警告說，這種對沖能力仍未經過長時間的考驗。此外，科恩也對政府可能不願意讓去中心化且基本上不受監管的金融體系蓬勃發展表示擔憂。

Cohen noted the recent rollout of Bitcoin ETFs as an indicator of increasing acceptance, acknowledging their short-term positive impact. Nonetheless, he reiterated the speculative nature of Bitcoin, advising investors against allocating significant portions of their portfolios to this asset.

科恩指出，最近推出的比特幣 ETF 是接受度不斷提高的指標，並承認其短期正面影響。儘管如此，他重申了比特幣的投機性質，並建議投資者不要將其投資組合的很大一部分分配給這種資產。

Looking ahead, Cohen predicted that Bitcoin will likely remain a fringe asset in terms of transactional usage. He highlighted the limited number of retailers and businesses that accept Bitcoin, as well as the persistent illicit activities surrounding it.

展望未來，科恩預測，就交易用途而言，比特幣可能仍然是一種邊緣資產。他強調了接受比特幣的零售商和企業數量有限，以及圍繞比特幣的非法活動持續存在。

Cohen emphasized that governments will inevitably seek to impose regulations on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to ensure accountability, traceability, and tax compliance. He suggested that blockchain technology could facilitate effective tracking, but acknowledged that such capabilities are still in development.

柯恩強調，政府將不可避免地尋求對比特幣和其他加密貨幣實施監管，以確保問責制、可追溯性和稅務合規性。他認為區塊鏈技術可以促進有效的跟踪，但承認這種功能仍在開發中。

Cohen concluded by stating that digital currencies backed by central banks may become more prevalent in the future, potentially replacing or significantly reducing the reliance on physical cash. However, he clarified that this transition is likely to take more than a decade to materialize.

科恩最後表示，由央行支持的數位貨幣未來可能會變得更加普遍，有可能取代或大幅減少對實體現金的依賴。不過，他澄清說，這種轉變可能需要十多年才能實現。

In summary, Cohen's views on Bitcoin underscore the speculative nature of this asset and its uncertain future within the mainstream financial system. While he recognizes its potential as a hedge, he cautions against over-allocating and emphasizes the need for government regulation to ensure its legitimacy and prevent illicit activities.

總之，科恩對比特幣的看法強調了這種資產的投機性質及其在主流金融體系中的不確定未來。雖然他認識到其作為對沖工具的潛力，但他警告不要過度分配，並強調需要政府監管以確保其合法性並防止非法活動。