比特幣的短期持有者：投降和已實現的損失 - 下一步是什麼？

比特幣近期的波動引發了短期持有者的重大實際損失。這是觸底的跡象，還是只是更深層次調整的開始？

Bitcoin's Short-Term Holders: Capitulation and Realized Loss - What's Next?

比特幣的短期持有者：投降和已實現的損失 - 下一步是什麼？

Bitcoin's wild ride lately has seen short-term holders taking a beating, with realized losses spiking. Is this the end of the dip, or just the beginning?

比特幣最近的瘋狂走勢讓短期持有者遭受打擊，已實現的損失激增。這是下跌的結束，還是剛剛開始？

Short-Term Holders Feeling the Pain

短期持有者感受到痛苦

Recent data reveals that short-term Bitcoin holders (STHs), those who've held their coins for less than 155 days, are selling at a loss. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost's analysis shows realized losses hitting levels comparable to the 2024 summer correction, with daily losses reaching as high as $750 million. Ouch! This kind of capitulation often signals a late-stage correction, as the “weak hands” give up and sell their holdings.

最近的數據顯示，短期比特幣持有者（STH），即持有比特幣時間少於 155 天的人，正在虧本出售。 CryptoQuant 分析師 Darkfost 的分析顯示，已實現的損失達到了與 2024 年夏季調整相當的水平，每日損失高達 7.5 億美元。哎喲!這種投降通常預示著後期的調整，因為“弱手”放棄並出售他們所持的股份。

Signs of Capitulation?

投降的跡象？

The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has dipped, indicating that STHs are indeed selling at a loss. Historically, this has been a contrarian indicator, often preceding major rebounds. However, it's not a guaranteed bounce. As Maartunn from CryptoQuant points out, confirmation of a recovery hinges on Bitcoin holding above its realized price levels and key moving averages.

短期持有者支出產出利潤率（SOPR）有所下降，表明 STH 確實在虧本出售。從歷史上看，這是一個反向指標，通常出現在大幅反彈之前。然而，這並不能保證一定會反彈。正如 CryptoQuant 的 Maartunn 指出的那樣，復甦的確認取決於比特幣保持在其實現價格水平和關鍵移動平均線之上。

Whales Buying the Dip?

鯨魚逢低買入？

There's a glimmer of hope! Data suggests that whales (large BTC holders) might be accumulating Bitcoin. A significant inflow of BTC into whale accumulation wallets has been observed, hinting that “smart money” is quietly buying the dip. This could signal a positive redistribution, where coins move from weaker hands to stronger, long-term holders.

有一線希望！數據表明，鯨魚（比特幣大戶）可能正在積累比特幣。人們觀察到比特幣大量流入鯨魚積累錢包，這暗示“聰明的錢”正在悄悄逢低買入。這可能預示著積極的重新分配，即代幣從較弱的手中轉移到較強的長期持有者手中。

The $112,500 Hurdle

112,500 美元的門檻

Bitcoin is currently battling to stay above the $110,000 mark, with resistance looming around $113,000–$114,000. Overcoming this hurdle could pave the way for a test of higher levels, but failure to do so might trigger another retest of recent lows. The market remains on edge, caught between recovery hopes and overall uncertainty.

比特幣目前正努力保持在 110,000 美元大關之上，阻力位在 113,000 美元至 114,000 美元附近。克服這一障礙可能為測試更高水平鋪平道路，但如果失敗，可能會引發另一次重新測試近期低點。市場仍處於緊張狀態，夾在復蘇希望和整體不確定性之間。

What's Next?

接下來是什麼？

The coming days are crucial. If Bitcoin can sustain its rebound and the SOPR starts to rise, it could confirm a shift from capitulation to re-accumulation. However, if selling pressure persists, we might be in for a prolonged consolidation phase.

未來幾天至關重要。如果比特幣能夠維持反彈並且 SOPR 開始上升，則可能確認從投降到重新積累的轉變。然而，如果拋售壓力持續存在，我們可能會陷入長期盤整階段。

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

Bitcoin's short-term holders are definitely feeling the heat, and their actions are providing valuable insights into market sentiment. Whether this capitulation leads to a rebound or a deeper correction remains to be seen. So, buckle up, keep an eye on those key levels, and remember, in the world of crypto, anything can happen! Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go check my portfolio...again.

比特幣的短期持有者肯定感受到了壓力，他們的行為為市場情緒提供了寶貴的見解。這種投降是否會導致反彈或更深層次的調整還有待觀察。因此，係好安全帶，密切關注這些關鍵級別，並記住，在加密世界中，任何事情都可能發生！現在，請原諒，我要再次檢查我的投資組合。