比特幣拋售：10萬美元支撐是最後一道防線嗎？

比特幣最近的拋售讓交易者將目光投向了 10 萬美元的支撐位。這是暫時的下跌還是更深層次調整的跡象？比特幣的下一步是什麼？

Bitcoin Selloff: Is $100,000 Support the Last Line of Defense?

比特幣拋售：10萬美元支撐是最後一道防線嗎？

Bitcoin's been on a rollercoaster, and after a brief surge, it's facing a serious selloff. All eyes are on the $100,000 level – is it a crucial support zone or a sign of more pain to come?

比特幣經歷了過山車般的走勢，在短暫的飆升之後，它面臨著嚴重的拋售。所有的目光都集中在 100,000 美元的水平上——這是一個關鍵的支撐區域還是即將到來的更多痛苦的跡象？

$100,000: A Line in the Sand?

100,000 美元：沙子裡的一條線？

Crypto analysts are watching $100,000 like hawks. It's not just a number; it's a psychological barrier. Dropping below this could trigger panic selling, especially from short-term holders looking to cut their losses. As CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno pointed out, the Bitcoin Trader On-chain Realized Price Bands metric suggests $100.9k could act as a support zone, representing the average acquisition cost for short-term holders.

加密貨幣分析師像鷹派一樣關注 10 萬美元。這不僅僅是一個數字；它是一個數字。這是一個心理障礙。跌破這一水平可能會引發恐慌性拋售，尤其是尋求減少損失的短期持有者。正如 CryptoQuant 分析師 Julio Moreno 指出的那樣，比特幣交易者鏈上已實現價格帶指標表明 10.09 萬美元可以作為支撐區域，代表短期持有者的平均購買成本。

Technical Indicators Flash Warning Signs

技術指標閃爍警告信號

Glassnode's analysis adds another layer. Bitcoin's currently caught between the Mayer Multiple ($107,400) and the Yearly Moving Average ($99,900). Slipping below the Yearly MA could signal a shift from bullish to bearish territory. The 365-day Moving Average (MA) also hovers around the $100,000 mark, reinforcing its significance as a long-term trend indicator.

Glassnode 的分析又增加了一層。比特幣目前處於梅耶倍數（107,400 美元）和年度移動平均線（99,900 美元）之間。跌破年度均線可能標誌著從看漲區域轉向看跌區域。 365 天移動平均線 (MA) 也徘徊在 100,000 美元大關附近，增強了其作為長期趨勢指標的重要性。

Who's Selling? Not Just Institutions

誰在賣？不僅僅是機構

JPMorgan suggests the recent correction was largely driven by crypto-native investors, not institutions. Data shows open interest on Binance cratered, while CME's institutional contracts remained relatively stable. "Ancient whales" and believers in the 4-year cycle are reportedly selling, taking profits after a long ride.

摩根大通表示，最近的調整主要是由加密貨幣本土投資者而非機構推動的。數據顯示，幣安的未平倉合約大幅下降，而芝商所的機構合約保持相對穩定。據報導，“古代鯨魚”和四年周期的信徒正在拋售，在經歷了漫長的旅程後獲利了結。

A Bullish Rebound or a Bearish Plunge?

看漲反彈還是看跌暴跌？

If Bitcoin holds above $100,000, we could see renewed bullish sentiment and a potential recovery towards its all-time high. However, a break below this level could trigger a significant market correction. The 365-day MA around $100,000 also acts as a vital sign for the long-term trend.

如果比特幣保持在 10 萬美元以上，我們可能會看到新的看漲情緒，並有可能恢復至歷史高點。然而，跌破該水平可能會引發市場大幅調整。 100,000 美元左右的 365 天移動平均線也是長期趨勢的重要標誌。

My Two Satoshis

我的兩個中本聰

Look, nobody has a crystal ball. The market is volatile, and anything can happen. But $100,000 is a key level to watch. If it holds, we might see a bounce. If it breaks, buckle up. The fact that institutional money seems to be holding steady is a good sign, suggesting long-term confidence in Bitcoin.

瞧，沒有人有水晶球。市場瞬息萬變，任何事情都有可能發生。但 100,000 美元是一個值得關注的關鍵水平。如果它成立，我們可能會看到反彈。如果破裂，請係好安全帶。機構資金似乎保持穩定，這是一個好兆頭，表明對比特幣的長期信心。

So, What's Next?

那麼，下一步是什麼？

Keep an eye on the price action, watch those moving averages, and maybe, just maybe, don't panic sell. Remember, even the wildest rollercoasters eventually come to a stop. And who knows, maybe we'll all be laughing about this dip on our way to the moon in 2025! Until then, HODL (or don't – it's your call!), and stay frosty, folks.

密切關注價格走勢，觀察那些移動平均線，也許，只是也許，不要恐慌性拋售。請記住，即使是最瘋狂的過山車最終也會停下來。誰知道呢，也許我們都會在 2025 年登月途中嘲笑這次下降！在那之前，保持住（或不保持——這是你的決定！），並保持冷漠，伙計們。