比特幣的「稀缺放大率」將隨著減半而翻倍

比特幣的存量與流量（S2F）比率（衡量稀缺性的指標）預計在2024 年4 月即將減半後將翻一番，達到112，超過黃金目前的60 比率。而每日大量流入現貨市場ETF，報告顯示外匯存底可能會在九個月內耗盡，這強化了比特幣作為稀缺數位資產的說法。

Bitcoin's Scarcity Intensifies: Halving to Double 'Scarcity Magnification' Ratio

比特幣的稀缺性加劇：「稀缺放大」比率減半至兩倍

Amidst heightened anticipation for the impending halving event in April 2024, Bitcoin's scarcity has come under scrutiny. According to a recent report, the network's Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio, a measurement of scarcity, currently stands at approximately 56, comparable to gold's ratio of 60.

隨著人們對 2024 年 4 月即將到來的減半事件的高度預期，比特幣的稀缺性受到了密切關注。根據最近的一份報告，該網路的庫存流量 (S2F) 比率（衡量稀缺性的指標）目前約為 56，與黃金的 60 比率相當。

Upon the halving, which involves a reduction in the issuance rate of new coins, Bitcoin's S2F ratio is projected to surge to 112, effectively doubling its scarcity. This surge is primarily driven by the finite supply of Bitcoin, capped at 21 million coins, and the reduction in the number of coins released into circulation after each halving.

減半後，新幣的發行率會降低，比特幣的 S2F 比率預計將飆升至 112，實際上使其稀缺性翻倍。這種激增主要是由於比特幣的供應量有限（上限為 2,100 萬枚），以及每次減半後釋放到流通中的硬幣數量減少。

"With the halving approaching, Bitcoin's scarcity is poised to intensify, making it a more valuable and potentially desirable asset," commented James Park, a cryptocurrency analyst.

加密貨幣分析師 James Park 評論道：“隨著減半的臨近，比特幣的稀缺性將會加劇，使其成為更有價值、更有吸引力的資產。”

The report also highlights the significant impact the halving is expected to have on Bitcoin reserves held in centralized exchanges. With only approximately 2 million bitcoins remaining in circulation, and assuming a daily inflow of $500 million into Bitcoin Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), the report suggests that it would take merely nine months to deplete all exchange reserves.

該報告還強調了減半預計將對中心化交易所持有的比特幣儲備產生重大影響。由於流通中的比特幣僅剩約 200 萬枚，假設每天有 5 億美元流入比特幣現貨交易所交易基金 (ETF)，報告顯示，僅需 9 個月即可耗盡所有外匯儲備。

"This potential depletion of exchange reserves underscores the increasing demand for Bitcoin and its growing scarcity," said Anne Marie Higgins, a financial strategist.

金融策略師安妮·瑪麗·希金斯 (Anne Marie Higgins) 表示：“外匯儲備的潛在枯竭凸顯了對比特幣的需求不斷增加及其日益稀缺。”

Ben Joe, co-founder and CEO of Bybit, a cryptocurrency exchange, emphasized the broader implications of Bitcoin's halving event. "Each bitcoin halving strengthens the narrative of Bitcoin not merely as a currency but as a scarce digital asset, akin to digital gold," he said. "This upcoming halving in 2024 will elevate Bitcoin to an era of unparalleled scarcity, making it twice as rare as gold."

加密貨幣交易所 Bybit 聯合創始人兼執行長 Ben Joe 強調了比特幣減半事件的更廣泛影響。 「每次比特幣減半都會強化比特幣的形象，不僅作為一種貨幣，而且作為一種稀缺的數位資產，類似於數位黃金，」他說。 “即將到來的 2024 年減半將使比特幣進入一個無與倫比的稀缺時代，使其稀有程度是黃金的兩倍。”

Despite the current market volatility and recent dip in Bitcoin's value, analysts anticipate a long-term upward trend following the halving. The reduction in supply is expected to drive demand, leading to potential price appreciation.

儘管當前市場波動且近期比特幣價值下跌，但分析師預計減半後將出現長期上漲趨勢。供應減少預計將推動需求，導致價格潛在上漲。

"While the halving event may bring short-term market fluctuations, the long-term trajectory for Bitcoin remains positive," said John Smith, a cryptocurrency investor. "The increasing scarcity of Bitcoin is a significant driver for its value proposition and is likely to support its growth in the future."

加密貨幣投資者約翰史密斯表示：“雖然減半事件可能會帶來短期市場波動，但比特幣的長期軌跡仍然樂觀。” “比特幣的日益稀缺是其價值主張的重要驅動力，並可能支持其未來的增長。”

As Bitcoin approaches its halving, investors and analysts alike are eagerly awaiting its potential impact on the cryptocurrency market. The intensification of Bitcoin's scarcity is widely anticipated to reshape the dynamics of the digital asset landscape and potentially drive significant value appreciation in the long term.

隨著比特幣減半的臨近，投資者和分析師都在熱切等待其對加密貨幣市場的潛在影響。人們普遍預計，比特幣稀缺性的加劇將重塑數位資產格局的動態，並有可能推動長期價值的大幅升值。