比特幣，風險和戰爭恐懼：為什麼市場還沒有驚慌（尚未）

儘管地緣政治震顫和戰爭恐懼，比特幣仍保持著強烈的信號，這表明了投資者的信心。比特幣是投資者信心的晴雨表嗎？

Bitcoin's been a wild ride lately, huh? Between potential U.S.-Iran escalations and general market jitters, it's enough to make any investor sweat. But here's the thing: Bitcoin's not just surviving; it's kinda thriving. Let's dive into why the market isn't hitting the panic button just yet.

比特幣最近一直是瘋狂的旅程，對吧？在潛在的美國 - 伊朗升級和一般市場的煩惱之間，這足以使任何投資者流汗。但這就是事情：比特幣不僅可以生存；有點繁榮。讓我們深入了解為什麼市場還沒有達到恐慌按鈕。

Bitcoin Bounces Back: A Sign of Resilience

比特幣反彈：彈性的標誌

After a volatile weekend that saw the U.S. strike Iran nuclear locations, leading to Iran launching retaliatory missile strikes on U.S. military bases in the Gulf, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $100,000 for the first time since May. But like a New Yorker dodging a rogue taxi, it bounced right back. By the time Wall Street opened, Bitcoin had reclaimed the $102,400 level, signaling that investors aren't running for the hills just yet. According to Brave New Coin data, It’s now up over 4.4% on the day.

經過一個動蕩的週末，美國罷工伊朗核地點，導致伊朗在海灣的美國軍事基地上發動了報復性導彈襲擊，比特幣自5月以來首次跌至100,000美元以下。但是，就像紐約人躲過流氓出租車一樣，它立即反彈。當華爾街開業時，比特幣已經收回了102,400美元的水平，這表明投資者還沒有競選山丘。根據Brave New Coin數據的數據，當天它現在增長了4.4％。

Not Just Crypto: Stocks Shrug Off Geopolitical Risks

不僅是加密：股票聳聳肩地緣政治風險

It's not just Bitcoin showing some swagger. U.S. stocks also surged, seemingly ignoring the geopolitical tremors. Even safe-haven assets like gold and oil are acting a bit... strange. Gold barely moved, and crude oil actually fell 4%, despite Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas supply. The Kobeissi Letter on X quipped, “If we told you Iran’s Parliament would vote to close Hormuz and oil would go down, you’d think we were nuts. But that’s exactly what happened.”

這不僅僅是比特幣表現出一些招搖。美國的股票也飆升，似乎無視地緣政治震顫。即使是黃金和石油之類的避行資產也有些行動……很奇怪。儘管伊朗威脅要關閉Hormuz海峽，但Gold幾乎沒有動彈，原油實際上下降了4％，Hormuz是全球石油和天然氣供應的關鍵。 X上的Kobeissi信打趣說：“如果我們告訴您伊朗議會會投票決定關閉Hormuz，而石油會倒下，您會認為我們很瘋狂。但這正是發生的。”

Why the Calm? Regional Flare-Up, Not Global Crisis

為什麼要冷靜？區域爆發，而不是全球危機

The prevailing sentiment seems to be that this conflict will be short-lived and regionally contained. Prediction market Polymarket puts the odds of Iran closing Hormuz at just 11%, down from 50% a day earlier. Crypto traders also appear unfazed. Crypto Caesar noted that Bitcoin is holding strong, while technical traders like Merlijn pointed to a bullish chart pattern. Derivatives data also suggests growing optimism, with traders pricing out wider contagion risk.

普遍的情緒似乎是這場衝突將是短暫的，並在區域內包含。預測市場多頭市場使伊朗在一天前的50％下關閉Hormuz的機率僅為11％。加密交易者也似乎並不感到震驚。加密凱撒（Crypto Caesar）指出，比特幣（Bitcoin）保持強大，而像梅爾利恩（Merlijn）這樣的技術交易員則指出了看漲的圖表模式。衍生工具數據還表明，貿易商的定價更廣泛的風險。

Bitcoin: From Risk Asset to Confidence Barometer

比特幣：從風險資產到置信度晴雨表

Bitcoin's bounce also came off a key technical level: $98,000, roughly the average cost basis for short-term holders. This suggests that the worst may be behind us—for now. Trader Daan Crypto Trades flagged a gap near $104,000 as a likely near-term target, adding another bullish kicker. All signs indicate that Bitcoin is evolving into a barometer of investor confidence.

比特幣的反彈也取得了關鍵的技術水平：98,000美元，大約是短期持有人的平均成本基礎。這表明現在最糟糕的時刻可能是我們的身後。 Trader Daan Crypto交易標記了一個可能接近104,000美元的差距，可能是近期目標，增加了另一個看漲的踢腳。所有跡像都表明比特幣正在發展成為投資者信心的晴雨表。

Green Minerals Dives into Bitcoin Treasury Strategy

綠色礦物潛入比特幣國庫策略

Adding another layer to the story, Oslo-based seabed-mining firm Green Minerals is shifting its treasury reserves from kroner and dollars into bitcoin. They're calling it a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk. Green Minerals plans to publish a new performance gauge, “BTC per share,” so investors can see exactly how much of the cryptocurrency backs each share outstanding.

在故事中增加了另一層，奧斯陸的海底開採公司Green Minerals正在將其財政部儲備從Kroner和美元轉移到比特幣。他們稱其為抵制通貨膨脹和地緣政治風險的對沖。 Green Minerals計劃發布新的績效量規“ BTC每股”，因此投資者可以確切地看到每股備份的加密貨幣備份。

Final Thoughts: Don't Panic, HODL On

最終想法：不要驚慌，霍德（Hodl）

So, what's the takeaway? While geopolitical tensions are undoubtedly unsettling, the market—and Bitcoin in particular—is showing remarkable resilience. It's not to say risks don't exist, but the overall vibe is

那麼，收穫是什麼？儘管地緣政治緊張局勢無疑令人不安，但市場（尤其是比特幣）表現出顯著的韌性。並不是說風險不存在，但總體氛圍是