範埃克表示，比特幣儲備可以大幅減少美國公債

資產管理公司 VanEck 建議美國可以透過建立比特幣儲備來大幅減少其國債

Asset management firm VanEck has proposed that the United States could significantly reduce its national debt by establishing a Bitcoin reserve, in line with a bill proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis.

資產管理公司 VanEck 提議，根據參議員 Cynthia Lummis 提出的法案，美國可以透過建立比特幣儲備來大幅減少國家債務。

The firm’s analysis predicts that Bitcoin’s value could reach $42.3 million per coin by 2049, creating an opportunity for the U.S. to offset $42 trillion in liabilities.

該公司的分析預測，到 2049 年，比特幣的價值可能達到每枚 4,230 萬美元，為美國創造抵銷 42 兆美元負債的機會。

Bitcoin’s Potential Economic Impact

比特幣的潛在經濟影響

VanEck’s estimate assumes Bitcoin’s price will grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25%, starting from a hypothetical $200,000 valuation in 2025. With Bitcoin currently trading at around $95,360, this would require a more than twofold increase in the cryptocurrency’s value to align with the firm’s projections.

VanEck 的估計假設，從2025 年假設的20 萬美元估值開始，比特幣的價格將以25% 的複合年增長率(CAGR) 增長。貨幣的價值增加兩倍以上才能實現。

By 2049, Bitcoin’s market capitalization could represent 18% of global financial assets, compared to its current 0.22% share of the $900 trillion market. If these projections hold true, a 1-million-bitcoin reserve could reduce the national debt by 35%, bringing down liabilities from a projected $119.3 trillion to $77.3 trillion.

到 2049 年，比特幣的市值可能佔全球金融資產的 18%，而目前在 900 兆美元市場中的份額僅為 0.22%。如果這些預測成立，100 萬個比特幣儲備可以將國家債務減少 35%，將負債從預計的 119.3 兆美元減少到 77.3 兆美元。

Under Senator Lummis’ proposed legislation, the U.S. government could allocate its existing 198,100 Bitcoin, acquired through asset seizures, towards the reserve. The remaining 801,900 Bitcoin needed could be financed through a combination of selling gold reserves, currently valued at $455 billion, or leveraging Emergency Support Functions. This strategy would avoid reliance on money printing or taxpayer funds, according to VanEck’s report.

根據 Lummis 參議員提議的立法，美國政府可以將透過資產扣押獲得的現有 198,100 比特幣分配給儲備金。所需的剩餘 801,900 比特幣可以透過出售目前價值 4550 億美元的黃金儲備或利用緊急支援功能來籌集資金。範埃克的報告稱，這項策略將避免對印鈔或納稅人資金的依賴。

Global Implications and Market Trends

全球影響和市場趨勢

VanEck highlighted potential influences on Bitcoin’s adoption at both domestic and international levels. Increased adoption by U.S. institutions and corporations could drive the value of cryptocurrency, as could actions by the BRICS nations. The alliance’s exploration of Bitcoin as a settlement currency for global trade could further impact its price trajectory.

VanEck 強調了比特幣在國內和國際層面採用的潛在影響。美國機構和企業的更多採用可能會推動加密貨幣的價值，金磚國家的行動也可能如此。該聯盟對比特幣作為全球貿易結算貨幣的探索可能會進一步影響其價格軌跡。

At the same time, speculation about the new U.S. government administration’s policy on Bitcoin has also energized the market. Apparently, during Donald Trump’s presidency, Bitcoin was planned to be proclaimed a reserve currency right at the executive order level, which is in line with Lummis’s plans

同時，有關美國新政府對比特幣政策的猜測也為市場注入了活力。顯然，在唐納德·特朗普擔任總統期間，計劃在行政命令層面宣布比特幣為儲備貨幣，這與 Lummis 的計劃是一致的

VanEck’s outlook is based on an optimistic scenario where Bitcoin achieves sustained growth amid increasing adoption. While the targets set are reasonably aggressive, the company concedes that there are still great barriers to overcome, such as the rate of regulatory discretion available and market concentration.

VanEck 的前景是基於樂觀的情景，即比特幣隨著採用率的不斷提高而持續成長。儘管設定的目標相當激進，但該公司承認仍存在巨大障礙需要克服，例如監管自由裁量權的比例和市場集中。

Once these obstacles are more or less conquered, the use of Bitcoin as a reserve asset should be a crucial milestone for the United States national debt management, and, on the other hand, it should completely alter the economic order of the whole world.

一旦這些障礙或多或少被克服，使用比特幣作為儲備資產應該成為美國國債管理的一個重要里程碑，另一方面，它也應該徹底改變整個世界的經濟秩序。