比特幣集會：分析師警告 - 只剩30天到達到頂峰？

比特幣的集會有專家分裂。一位分析師警告說，在30天內提高了高峰，而另一位則預測持續增長。這是終點，還是呼吸器？

Bitcoin Rally: Analyst Warning – Only 30 Days Left to Peak?

比特幣集會：分析師警告 - 只剩30天到達到頂峰？

Bitcoin's recent surge has sparked debate. One analyst predicts a peak within 30 days, while others foresee further growth. Is this a final hurrah or a temporary pause?

比特幣最近的激增引發了辯論。一位分析師預測在30天內達到峰值，而其他分析師則預計會進一步增長。這是最後的歡呼還是臨時停頓？

The 30-Day Countdown

30天倒計時

Crypto analyst Jelle suggests the Bitcoin supercycle is nearing its end, estimating only 30 days until the peak. His prediction is based on historical cycles, with each peak occurring approximately 1,064 days after the bottom. If his analysis holds true, Bitcoin could experience a further 20% increase before a potential decline.

加密分析師傑爾（Jelle）認為比特幣超級循環即將結束，估計只有30天的時間。他的預測基於歷史週期，每個峰發生在底部後約1,064天。如果他的分析成立，比特幣可能會在潛在下降之前再增加20％。

Supercycle or Regular Cycle?

超級循環還是常規週期？

Bitcoin's price typically follows cycles, influenced by events like the quadrennial “halving,” which reduces mining rewards and often triggers bull runs. The latest halving occurred in April 2024, initiating the current uptrend. The key question is whether this is a standard cycle or a "supercycle," characterized by sustained growth driven by institutional adoption.

比特幣的價格通常遵循週期，受到諸如四年一度“減半”之類的事件的影響，該事件減少了採礦獎勵，並且經常觸發公牛的運行。最新的減半發生在2024年4月，啟動了當前的上升趨勢。關鍵問題是這是標準週期還是“超級循環”，其特徵是由機構採用驅動的持續增長。

The Bullish Perspective

看漲的觀點

Bernstein analysts, for example, believe the bull run will continue until 2027, fueled by favorable U.S. policies and the influx of institutional investment through spot Bitcoin ETFs. They forecast Bitcoin reaching $150,000–$200,000, with altcoins like ETH and SOL leading the next phase. The recent Federal Reserve rate cut further supports this bullish outlook.

例如，伯恩斯坦分析師認為，公牛的運行將持續到2027年，這是由美國政策良好的政策和通過現貨比特幣ETF湧入的機構投資的湧入。他們預測比特幣將達到150,000美元至20萬美元，而Altcoins（例如ETH和SOL）則領先下一階段。最近的美聯儲降低的速度進一步支持了這種看漲的前景。

Whales Accumulating, Retail Hesitant

鯨魚積累，零售業猶豫不決

Onchain data indicates that large Bitcoin holders (whales) are accumulating more BTC. MicroStrategy, under Michael Saylor, has converted $2 billion in debt into Bitcoin, signaling long-term confidence. However, retail investors remain cautious, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) trending below its moving average.

OnChain數據表明，大型比特幣持有人（鯨魚）正在積累更多的BTC。在邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）的領導下，MicroStrategy已將20億美元的債務轉換為比特幣，這表明了長期信心。但是，散戶投資者仍然謹慎，如相對強度指數（RSI）趨勢低於其移動平均線的表明。

A Word of Caution

謹慎

Despite the overall positive sentiment, BNB price has fallen back under $1,000 after hitting a record high, with cooling volumes and overheated trading leaving the token exposed to further correction.

儘管總體上有積極的情緒，但BNB的價格在創下了創紀錄的高位後仍低於1,000美元，冷卻量和過熱的交易使代幣暴露於進一步的更正。

The Contrarian View and Potential Drawdown

逆勢觀點和潛在的縮減

While many predict continued growth, it's crucial to acknowledge Bitcoin's history of significant sell-offs. Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, anticipates Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by late 2025, driven by sustained ETF inflows and institutional demand. However, he also cautions about a potential 40% drawdown, which could bring Bitcoin down to the $90,000 level.

儘管許多人預測持續增長，但要承認比特幣的重大拋售歷史至關重要。 Canary Capital首席執行官史蒂芬·麥克盧格（Steven McClurg）預計，在2025年底，比特幣將在持續的ETF流入和機構需求的驅動下達到15萬美元。但是，他還警告說，潛在的40％的縮水可能會使比特幣降至90,000美元。

Final Thoughts: Buckle Up, Buttercup!

最終想法：扣緊，毛cup！

So, is the Bitcoin party about to end in 30 days, or are we just getting started? The experts are divided, the whales are loading up, and the market is doing its usual rollercoaster impression. Whether it's a supercycle or just a regular one, one thing's for sure: Bitcoin never fails to keep things interesting. So, buckle up, buttercup, because it's gonna be a wild ride!

那麼，比特幣派對即將在30天內結束，還是我們剛剛開始？專家分裂，鯨魚正在加載，市場正在做平常的過山車印象。無論是超級循環還是普通的，一件事都是肯定的：比特幣永遠不會讓事情變得有趣。因此，搭扣，毛cup，因為這將是一個瘋狂的旅程！